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I think you're tugging a lot more. I don't think that most people can estimate anything beyond "this earnings call makes the price go up or down [a little/lot]"
by vineyardmike 5y ago
I think you're tugging a lot more. I don't think that most people can estimate anything beyond "this earnings call makes the price go up or down [a little/lot]". I'm not referencing some missed arbitrage opportunity, just that general stock movements can likely be predicted before earnings calls for well-reported companies.
People with insider trading knowledge don't seem able to accurately predict the exact price, but they know if its good/bad/great news and how wall street reacts to that .
- sokoloff 5y agoTry it. Take 5 companies whose share price reactions might be predictable ahead of time by "most people" and for each of the next 4 quarters make an up/±epsilon/down prediction. See how often you're right.
- motoxpro 5y agoAlways trips me out that people think that it's so easy to make money "day trading"
- Plyphon_ 5y agoA few of the consumer broker apps have a 'practice mode' with a few tens of thousand of virtual practice cash to use with the price reacting to real market data - you could do this in real time!
- vineyardmike 5y ago> have a 'practice mode' with a few tens of thousand of virtual practice cash I'd like to see what someone ends up with investing a more meager amount, like 1k. That's likely what a lot of young adults have in savings they could potentially invest.