In broad strokes, I agree with you. I think you're absolutely correct that most trained, educated, technologically sophisticated law enforcement bodies will do

In broad strokes, I agree with you. I think you're absolutely correct that most trained, educated, technologically sophisticated law enforcement bodies will do exactly as you suggest and decide that there's not enough to investigate. That said, I'm not willing to say it won't happen. There are too many law enforcement entities of wildly varying levels of professionalism, staffing, and technical sophistication. Someone innocent, somewhere, is likely to have a multi-year legal drama because their local PD got an email from Apple. And we haven't even gotten to subjects like how some LEOs will happily plant evidence once they decide you're guilty.