6 ms·

Designing better batteries for electric vehicles

69 points by 35_candelas 5y ago

jillesvangurp 5y ago
Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good. More than good enough to be cost competitive with ICE vehicles over the life time of the vehicle in most classes of road transport (e-bikes to heavy trucks) and trending towards being cost competitive on purchase price as well in the next years and production price soon after (purchase price typically involves tax incentives). Most of that is just relentless optimization by companies that have gone from small factories to operating multiple so-called Giga factories, i.e. factories producing multiple GWH worth of battery capacity. Tera factories are coming next. Tera factories are essential to be able to actually satisfy demand. Currently any battery that is produced finds its way to a product that probably has some kind of waiting list. Demand is that strong. Driving prices down below 100$/kwh is important for this as most cars don't need more than 50-70 kwh (i.e. 5000-7000$) worth of batteries. Tesla does not disclose their battery cost but they've been rumored to have long broken through that price point. Chinese manufacturers are selling cars below 5000$ in their domestic market already. Solid state batteries will have to be cost competitive to be able to make a dent in that market. That will likely happen eventually but probably not in the next year. However, demand won't be an issue even at an initial premium price point. There are plenty of markets where it makes sense to pay a premium for a lighter, more efficient, safer battery. Prices will come down as that market matures. But that might take a decade or so.
- Cthulhu_ 5y ago
  There's some practical concerns with current generation batteries though; use of rare earth materials, lithium, and fire hazards and risks in accidents. I mean they're not the end of the world and they are acceptable compared to e.g. the environmental damage done by the production and consumptions of petrol and diesel, but I feel like they still iterate on them a lot. I mean the ideal here is not to just create an alternative to ICE's, but to come out on top. For a good while the only reason people went for an electric car besides idealism was subsidies. But if an electric car ends up being superior in every way - range, handling, cost - of an ICE car, they will compete ICE cars out of the market without subsidies or force. Because at the moment it feels forced. Car manufacturers have already announced they will stop producing ICE cars in a decade or so.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    >rare earth materials Which? >But if an electric car ends up being superior in every way - range, handling, cost - of an ICE car, they will compete ICE cars out of the market without subsidies or force. This is already the case. Check BMW Series 3 sales (or any entry luxury sedan) against the Tesla Model 3. And how sales of Model Y are growing against comparable ICE midsized SUV. When Tesla release their compact cars (expected around 2023), it is game over. If you don't trust Tesla, see Porsche Taycan sales against their Panamera.
    - guerby 5y ago
      On the last point: https://electrek.co/2020/09/22/taycan-electric-car-porsches-best-selling-car-destroys-panamera-sales/ https://electrek.co/2020/09/22/taycan-electric-car-porsches-... https://insideevs.com/news/517601/us-porsche-taycan-sales-2021q2/ https://insideevs.com/news/517601/us-porsche-taycan-sales-20...
  - jillesvangurp 5y ago
    ICE cars catch fire all the time. But when an EV catches news, it's major news. It happens relatively rarely. Nowhere near enough for this to be a concern. Interestingly, some rare earths used for EVs are also used for ICE cars and fuel production. For example cobalt is used for getting rid of sulfur in pretty large quantities as part of the oil refining process. The difference is that with EVs, recycling is both feasible and already common and expected to become a multi billion dollar business as actual volume of batteries ready to recycle becomes larger. The article mentions battery yield as an issue without mentioning that e.g. Tesla recycles all their discarded cells. Why wouldn't they? It contains valuable materials. ICE car demand is going to collapse before the EV market is ready to supply replacements. The reason is that people will anticipate the approaching point where that market is collapsing and will stop buying new ones because they expect the second hand value is going to be poor and because EVs are obviously better/cheaper. That's already happening. It's going to be a rough ride for manufacturers. That's why essentially all of them are ramping up investments in battery production right now: it's a survival strategy for when their existing revenue is drying up. That in turn drives down battery prices; thus speeding the whole process up. Manufacturers are hoping for 2030 but planning for 2025.
- _ZeD_ 5y ago
  > Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good. are you serius? do you really think it's "pretty good" the range electric vehicles have, compared to ICE ones, looking also at the added weight and the time needed to recharge / refuel? Electric vehicles are not a fad, but the battery energy density it's still... in the "tolerable, at most" phase of the tecnology just FYI I just buyed a plug-in hybrid car mostly because I don't think a electric only vehicle it's enough for today.
  - adrianN 5y ago
    EVs can cover almost all usecases for a large number of people. I think that counts as "pretty good", the main issue seems to be cost and lack of charging infrastructure for people without a garage.
    - h4vot 5y ago
      Husband got a Jag i-Pace a few months ago. 400 km range. Haven't even bothered to get the fast charging equipment installed yet at home just give it 240 volts at night. Its never been under 50%. I think for the vast majority of city and suburban folk, 99/100 trips are not an issue.
      - sokoloff 5y ago
        I've driven (and overall enjoyed) a Nissan LEAF (pure EV) for the last 6.5 years. It's true that 99/100 of trips are not an issue, because many trips are short. Back/forth to work, back/forth to lunch, back/forth to sports, back/forth to the post office or grocery store. Those quickly add up the 99% of trips (as measured by getting into the car and going somewhere). Those 1% of trips really impact your overall satisfaction with the car, though. I don't remember all the times the car effortlessly and nearly silently took me to work, but I do remember when I couldn't go to visit a friend or play in a softball tournament because my wife needed to use the ICE car for something and the LEAF couldn't do the trip. Or where we had to carefully plan who was going to take which kid to which activity and who was going to take the dog to her chemo appointment and in which car. If you "plan it wrong" in an ICE or hybrid, you lose 10 minutes. If you "plan it wrong" in a BEV, you lose an hour minimum (and more in a LEAF; mine has been DC fast charged twice since new, once before delivery and only once have I found and used a CHAdeMO in the wild). I liked the LEAF (as the person who maintains our cars, I absolutely treasure it), but I suspect my next car will not be a pure electric. Teslas are more money than I choose to spend on a car. (Taycan is way more.) I'll probably end up with a 10-year old ICE car that will do everything I need for 20% of the purchase price, 30% of the insurance, and 150% of the marginal cost per mile, which is fine as we drive each car only about 3-5K/yr.
- baybal2 5y ago
  > Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good. Seconding this. The current mainstream will hover at around 200-220 Wh/kg for a long time. It already does. Cell energy densities above >200 Wh/kg were available for a long time, but even quite major car brands intentionally chose to not to use premium priced cells, and stayed on commodity grade ones. Cells sold on the open market still have a quite big double digit markup. Only direct sales to EV makers go below $100 per kWh. And yes, small cars for people only driving in the city make the most of cars sold around the world. Here, your observation is completely correct. In China, even lead acid battery powered cars find buyers in small towns, and villages. Dropping 100kg in lead, and structure from small cars with around 10kWh packs will make a big difference. It's not Tesla whom the big automakers are afraid of, it's Wuling MiniEVs — a car for a city driver which petrol powered cars can't beat at $5000 pricepoint.
baybal2 5y ago
Note, the mass of an anode is at most 15% of mass of the modern battery cell. All "metallic" lithium cells still need some mechanical structure to hold lithium. So, at most you will get a half of the mass of graphite, given that graphite is already a quite lightweight material. For the cost, the second most expensive part in the cell after the cathode is the separator. Close to a third of cell's cost can be the separator. Japanese currently have a near monopoly on high-end separators, with Chinese having the rest of the market.
- csours 5y ago
  From where do the Korean battery manufacturers source their separators?
  - baybal2 5y ago
    I have no idea honestly. One may think they may be trying to avoid Japanese suppliers, but who knows. The entirety of Korean semi-industry sits on Japanese consumables for example. Times change.
blunte 5y ago
What happened to the arrays of nano capacitors which were a promising alternative?
csours 5y ago
Are such solid state batteries suitable for cell phones and laptops, power tools (drills, saws) etc? Are there conflicting engineering goals for batteries of small consumer appliances and vehicles?
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  Probably only a question of cost and fire risk. A solid state would be better for a phone, but the cost/weight/safety trade off might not be worth it there, by the time it is in a car (if it ever gets there) Notable that electric car players are still innovating on non solid state, so I guess solid state isn't imminent.

69 points by 35_candelas 5y ago

Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good. More than good enough to be cost competitive with ICE vehicles over the life time of the vehicle in most classes of road transport (e-bikes to heavy trucks) and trending towards being cost competitive on purchase price as well in the next years and production price soon after (purchase price typically involves tax incentives). Most of that is just relentless optimization by companies that have gone from small factories to operating multiple so-called Giga factories, i.e. factories producing multiple GWH worth of battery capacity. Tera factories are coming next. Tera factories are essential to be able to actually satisfy demand. Currently any battery that is produced finds its way to a product that probably has some kind of waiting list. Demand is that strong. Driving prices down below 100$/kwh is important for this as most cars don't need more than 50-70 kwh (i.e. 5000-7000$) worth of batteries. Tesla does not disclose their battery cost but they've been rumored to have long broken through that price point. Chinese manufacturers are selling cars below 5000$ in their domestic market already. Solid state batteries will have to be cost competitive to be able to make a dent in that market. That will likely happen eventually but probably not in the next year. However, demand won't be an issue even at an initial premium price point. There are plenty of markets where it makes sense to pay a premium for a lighter, more efficient, safer battery. Prices will come down as that market matures. But that might take a decade or so.

Cthulhu_ 5y ago
There's some practical concerns with current generation batteries though; use of rare earth materials, lithium, and fire hazards and risks in accidents. I mean they're not the end of the world and they are acceptable compared to e.g. the environmental damage done by the production and consumptions of petrol and diesel, but I feel like they still iterate on them a lot. I mean the ideal here is not to just create an alternative to ICE's, but to come out on top. For a good while the only reason people went for an electric car besides idealism was subsidies. But if an electric car ends up being superior in every way - range, handling, cost - of an ICE car, they will compete ICE cars out of the market without subsidies or force. Because at the moment it feels forced. Car manufacturers have already announced they will stop producing ICE cars in a decade or so.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  >rare earth materials Which? >But if an electric car ends up being superior in every way - range, handling, cost - of an ICE car, they will compete ICE cars out of the market without subsidies or force. This is already the case. Check BMW Series 3 sales (or any entry luxury sedan) against the Tesla Model 3. And how sales of Model Y are growing against comparable ICE midsized SUV. When Tesla release their compact cars (expected around 2023), it is game over. If you don't trust Tesla, see Porsche Taycan sales against their Panamera.
  - guerby 5y ago
    On the last point: https://electrek.co/2020/09/22/taycan-electric-car-porsches-best-selling-car-destroys-panamera-sales/ https://electrek.co/2020/09/22/taycan-electric-car-porsches-... https://insideevs.com/news/517601/us-porsche-taycan-sales-2021q2/ https://insideevs.com/news/517601/us-porsche-taycan-sales-20...
- jillesvangurp 5y ago
  ICE cars catch fire all the time. But when an EV catches news, it's major news. It happens relatively rarely. Nowhere near enough for this to be a concern. Interestingly, some rare earths used for EVs are also used for ICE cars and fuel production. For example cobalt is used for getting rid of sulfur in pretty large quantities as part of the oil refining process. The difference is that with EVs, recycling is both feasible and already common and expected to become a multi billion dollar business as actual volume of batteries ready to recycle becomes larger. The article mentions battery yield as an issue without mentioning that e.g. Tesla recycles all their discarded cells. Why wouldn't they? It contains valuable materials. ICE car demand is going to collapse before the EV market is ready to supply replacements. The reason is that people will anticipate the approaching point where that market is collapsing and will stop buying new ones because they expect the second hand value is going to be poor and because EVs are obviously better/cheaper. That's already happening. It's going to be a rough ride for manufacturers. That's why essentially all of them are ramping up investments in battery production right now: it's a survival strategy for when their existing revenue is drying up. That in turn drives down battery prices; thus speeding the whole process up. Manufacturers are hoping for 2030 but planning for 2025.
_ZeD_ 5y ago
> Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good. are you serius? do you really think it's "pretty good" the range electric vehicles have, compared to ICE ones, looking also at the added weight and the time needed to recharge / refuel? Electric vehicles are not a fad, but the battery energy density it's still... in the "tolerable, at most" phase of the tecnology just FYI I just buyed a plug-in hybrid car mostly because I don't think a electric only vehicle it's enough for today.
- adrianN 5y ago
  EVs can cover almost all usecases for a large number of people. I think that counts as "pretty good", the main issue seems to be cost and lack of charging infrastructure for people without a garage.
  - h4vot 5y ago
    Husband got a Jag i-Pace a few months ago. 400 km range. Haven't even bothered to get the fast charging equipment installed yet at home just give it 240 volts at night. Its never been under 50%. I think for the vast majority of city and suburban folk, 99/100 trips are not an issue.
    - sokoloff 5y ago
      I've driven (and overall enjoyed) a Nissan LEAF (pure EV) for the last 6.5 years. It's true that 99/100 of trips are not an issue, because many trips are short. Back/forth to work, back/forth to lunch, back/forth to sports, back/forth to the post office or grocery store. Those quickly add up the 99% of trips (as measured by getting into the car and going somewhere). Those 1% of trips really impact your overall satisfaction with the car, though. I don't remember all the times the car effortlessly and nearly silently took me to work, but I do remember when I couldn't go to visit a friend or play in a softball tournament because my wife needed to use the ICE car for something and the LEAF couldn't do the trip. Or where we had to carefully plan who was going to take which kid to which activity and who was going to take the dog to her chemo appointment and in which car. If you "plan it wrong" in an ICE or hybrid, you lose 10 minutes. If you "plan it wrong" in a BEV, you lose an hour minimum (and more in a LEAF; mine has been DC fast charged twice since new, once before delivery and only once have I found and used a CHAdeMO in the wild). I liked the LEAF (as the person who maintains our cars, I absolutely treasure it), but I suspect my next car will not be a pure electric. Teslas are more money than I choose to spend on a car. (Taycan is way more.) I'll probably end up with a 10-year old ICE car that will do everything I need for 20% of the purchase price, 30% of the insurance, and 150% of the marginal cost per mile, which is fine as we drive each car only about 3-5K/yr.
baybal2 5y ago
> Iterating on battery design is important but it's important to realize that existing batteries are already pretty good. Seconding this. The current mainstream will hover at around 200-220 Wh/kg for a long time. It already does. Cell energy densities above >200 Wh/kg were available for a long time, but even quite major car brands intentionally chose to not to use premium priced cells, and stayed on commodity grade ones. Cells sold on the open market still have a quite big double digit markup. Only direct sales to EV makers go below $100 per kWh. And yes, small cars for people only driving in the city make the most of cars sold around the world. Here, your observation is completely correct. In China, even lead acid battery powered cars find buyers in small towns, and villages. Dropping 100kg in lead, and structure from small cars with around 10kWh packs will make a big difference. It's not Tesla whom the big automakers are afraid of, it's Wuling MiniEVs — a car for a city driver which petrol powered cars can't beat at $5000 pricepoint.

baybal2 5y ago

Note, the mass of an anode is at most 15% of mass of the modern battery cell. All "metallic" lithium cells still need some mechanical structure to hold lithium. So, at most you will get a half of the mass of graphite, given that graphite is already a quite lightweight material. For the cost, the second most expensive part in the cell after the cathode is the separator. Close to a third of cell's cost can be the separator. Japanese currently have a near monopoly on high-end separators, with Chinese having the rest of the market.

csours 5y ago
From where do the Korean battery manufacturers source their separators?
- baybal2 5y ago
  I have no idea honestly. One may think they may be trying to avoid Japanese suppliers, but who knows. The entirety of Korean semi-industry sits on Japanese consumables for example. Times change.

blunte 5y ago

What happened to the arrays of nano capacitors which were a promising alternative?

csours 5y ago

Are such solid state batteries suitable for cell phones and laptops, power tools (drills, saws) etc? Are there conflicting engineering goals for batteries of small consumer appliances and vehicles?

gameswithgo 5y ago
Probably only a question of cost and fire risk. A solid state would be better for a phone, but the cost/weight/safety trade off might not be worth it there, by the time it is in a car (if it ever gets there) Notable that electric car players are still innovating on non solid state, so I guess solid state isn't imminent.