3 ms·

> The military will just use arial drone slaughterbots. The Azerbaijanis did this in the recent Armenia/Azerbaijan war and it was a total blowout against 20th c

> The military will just use arial drone slaughterbots. The Azerbaijanis did this in the recent Armenia/Azerbaijan war and it was a total blowout against 20th century tech. It hadn't occurred to me that drones let despots wage high-tempo modern wars (at least, partially) without the associated risks (of devolved control) and costs (of very expensive training and equipment for your soldiers)—but they totally do. That's a pretty big deal. Wonder if we'll see 2nd-tier, regional powers gain influence through this effect, as they can afford quite good drone programs while weaker neighbors might not be able to.

btbuildem 5y ago
As with anything else, we will have countermeasures for drone warfare as well.
- leshow 5y ago
  Will we? It's not as if there is some countermeasure that will magically even the playing field, things seem to advance in the direction of escalation vs countermeasure.
  - shadowgovt 5y ago
    I'm mildly surprised that in all the "AI goes rogue and turns a controlled smart munition into a murder-bot" fiction I've seen, I don't think anyone has drawn the relatively short line of causality along "Drone countermeasures disrupt remote control --> designers build in some basic decision-making to account for control interruption --> the decision-making gets sophisticated enough that it's trusted with kill / no-kill decisions --> jamming drone + scrambling IFF --> murder-bot turned on its 'owners.'"
    - robotresearcher 5y ago
      A system that has intolerable friendly-fire issues would not be used longer than it takes to learn about the issues.
  - gremloni 5y ago
    I totally think so. Laser tech that’s being used to zap mosquitos out of the sky could totally be repurposed to take out drones. Drones are relatively small and disabling them seems like a much easier task than taking down full fledged aircraft that fly much higher and are larger.
djrogers 5y ago
There’s already a drone/anti-drone arms race going on, with tech like microwaves, jammers, nets, and other more classified means of drone flight denial. The drones will be effective for a while, then it’ll become impossible to fly them in airspace controlled by a 1st or 2nd tier power, and you’ll be back to needing foot soldiers (if only to take out the drone jammers).

btbuildem 5y ago

As with anything else, we will have countermeasures for drone warfare as well.

leshow 5y ago
Will we? It's not as if there is some countermeasure that will magically even the playing field, things seem to advance in the direction of escalation vs countermeasure.
- shadowgovt 5y ago
  I'm mildly surprised that in all the "AI goes rogue and turns a controlled smart munition into a murder-bot" fiction I've seen, I don't think anyone has drawn the relatively short line of causality along "Drone countermeasures disrupt remote control --> designers build in some basic decision-making to account for control interruption --> the decision-making gets sophisticated enough that it's trusted with kill / no-kill decisions --> jamming drone + scrambling IFF --> murder-bot turned on its 'owners.'"
  - robotresearcher 5y ago
    A system that has intolerable friendly-fire issues would not be used longer than it takes to learn about the issues.
- gremloni 5y ago
  I totally think so. Laser tech that’s being used to zap mosquitos out of the sky could totally be repurposed to take out drones. Drones are relatively small and disabling them seems like a much easier task than taking down full fledged aircraft that fly much higher and are larger.

djrogers 5y ago

There’s already a drone/anti-drone arms race going on, with tech like microwaves, jammers, nets, and other more classified means of drone flight denial. The drones will be effective for a while, then it’ll become impossible to fly them in airspace controlled by a 1st or 2nd tier power, and you’ll be back to needing foot soldiers (if only to take out the drone jammers).