4 ms·

> We had a small chance of getting rid of covid if we had gotten nearly everyone, 90%+, vaccinated. By small chance, you mean 0% chance, right? Variants were a

by hknapp 5y ago

> We had a small chance of getting rid of covid if we had gotten nearly everyone, 90%+, vaccinated. By small chance, you mean 0% chance, right? Variants were already spreading by the time any vaccines were available. There are also billions of people who will likely not be vaccinated within the next couple years or so.

gilbetron 5y ago
We had a non-zero chance of stopping covid, even considering vaccines would take a couple of years to get to everyone, it didn't matter (much) if variants happened. The chance of zero covid comes from vaccines coming out fast enough to drop the R value below 1.0 for a significant amount of time for the virus to go away. However, in hindsight, with animal populations being able to get infected, I think it probably was zero, although that gets well beyond my armchair "skills" ;)