5 ms·

This was probably the hold-up for FDA approval. They needed to see if a third dose would be recommended. But if two doses weren't enough to stop the delta varia

This was probably the hold-up for FDA approval. They needed to see if a third dose would be recommended. But if two doses weren't enough to stop the delta variant, how can they be sure that three are?

chitowneats 5y ago
They can't. No clinical trials. It's a hail mary.
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  I feel like "hail mary" would imply some sort of negative consequences for failure in this case. But short of the third shot just dropping dead everyone who takes it (unlikely), it will be easy enough with our media ecosystem to suppress adverse events and handwave away any problems with efficacy. I mean, we're already seeing numerous countries experience higher cases and hospitalizations with 50%+ vax rates than they ever did before the vaccine rollouts but hardly anyone is asking "hey, what's going on here?"
  - revolvingocelot 5y ago
    >I mean, we're already seeing numerous countries experience higher cases and hospitalizations with 50%+ vax rates than they ever did before the vaccine rollouts but hardly anyone is asking "hey, what's going on here?" There's no reason to ask because we actually do know what's going on here. The r0 of OG COVID is ~3, higher than the flu. The r0 of Delta COVID is between 5 and 9, and the CDC currently estimates it at 8.5. Worse, Delta generates more, and more serious, hospitalizations (among the unvaccinated). [0] Which countries are experiencing hospitalization rates higher than pre-vaccine times? More importantly, do those trends disappear if you look at areas within those countries that are highly- or poorly-vaccinated? [0] https://health-desk.org/articles/how-contagious-is-the-delta-variant-compared-to-other-infectious-diseases https://health-desk.org/articles/how-contagious-is-the-delta...
fighterpilot 5y ago
This binary thinking is wrong. Nobody thinks three shots will "stop" the delta variant. They think it'll lower the number of severe cases and deaths.
- tboyd47 5y ago
  Okay, so if the binary thinking is wrong, why stop at three? Why stop at all? Does the science say we just blast our bodies with as much mRNA as we can get away with?
  - fighterpilot 5y ago
    Elementary economic thinking answers this question. Benefits asymptote, so you'll stop at the point where the marginal benefit of an additional shot is less than the marginal financial cost, marginal opportunity cost and marginal cost of side effects all combined. That's definitely not the case before two and may not be the case before three based on data we've seen. It might be the case before four. And this doesn't factor in declining immunity over time. It might make sense to keep taking shots every half a year forever, until COVID mutates into something less deadly perhaps.
    - velcii 5y ago
      >You'll asymptote, so you'll stop at the point where the marginal benefit of an additional shot is less than the marginal financial cost, marginal opportunity cost and marginal cost of side effects all combined. But this is already the case for young people and people who already had covid and recovered, but we don't see them excluded from vaccinations based on their risk profile. So I think there is no reason to think that this logic will be applied more truthfully at some arbitrary time in future.
    - iamthepieman 5y ago
      This is basically what is done with the flu shot although it's a very different mechanism in the actual vaccine.
    - tboyd47 5y ago
silisili 5y ago
As I understand it(which could be completely wrong, so take with a grain of salt), there is no actual 'stopping' variants. The idea is to keep tricking your body with mock spike proteins, so that your body builds defenses against it. And data shows the more shots you get, the more your body builds resistance. So when the real thing arrives, it doesn't affect the host as much, if at all.
- lupire 5y ago
  Is the booster customized for Delta? The article doesn't say.
  - silisili 5y ago
    The boosters in question are not at this time. Same as other shot. It's confusing because Pfizer was touting they could modify boosters for variants months ago.
  - sterlind 5y ago
    No. Pfizer indicated it could develop and begin mass-producing a variant-specific booster within 100 days, if a third dose of the original vaccine is ineffective. [0] But the plan is to use the existing stock. I'd feel a lot safer if Pfizer started developing a polyvalent booster with mRNA for all significant variants. 0. http://ctmirror.org/2021/08/13/pfizer-ceo-to-public-just-trust-us-on-the-covid-booster/ http://ctmirror.org/2021/08/13/pfizer-ceo-to-public-just-tru...

chitowneats 5y ago

They can't. No clinical trials. It's a hail mary.

AndrewBissell 5y ago
I feel like "hail mary" would imply some sort of negative consequences for failure in this case. But short of the third shot just dropping dead everyone who takes it (unlikely), it will be easy enough with our media ecosystem to suppress adverse events and handwave away any problems with efficacy. I mean, we're already seeing numerous countries experience higher cases and hospitalizations with 50%+ vax rates than they ever did before the vaccine rollouts but hardly anyone is asking "hey, what's going on here?"
- revolvingocelot 5y ago
  >I mean, we're already seeing numerous countries experience higher cases and hospitalizations with 50%+ vax rates than they ever did before the vaccine rollouts but hardly anyone is asking "hey, what's going on here?" There's no reason to ask because we actually do know what's going on here. The r0 of OG COVID is ~3, higher than the flu. The r0 of Delta COVID is between 5 and 9, and the CDC currently estimates it at 8.5. Worse, Delta generates more, and more serious, hospitalizations (among the unvaccinated). [0] Which countries are experiencing hospitalization rates higher than pre-vaccine times? More importantly, do those trends disappear if you look at areas within those countries that are highly- or poorly-vaccinated? [0] https://health-desk.org/articles/how-contagious-is-the-delta-variant-compared-to-other-infectious-diseases https://health-desk.org/articles/how-contagious-is-the-delta...

fighterpilot 5y ago

This binary thinking is wrong. Nobody thinks three shots will "stop" the delta variant. They think it'll lower the number of severe cases and deaths.

tboyd47 5y ago
Okay, so if the binary thinking is wrong, why stop at three? Why stop at all? Does the science say we just blast our bodies with as much mRNA as we can get away with?
- fighterpilot 5y ago
  Elementary economic thinking answers this question. Benefits asymptote, so you'll stop at the point where the marginal benefit of an additional shot is less than the marginal financial cost, marginal opportunity cost and marginal cost of side effects all combined. That's definitely not the case before two and may not be the case before three based on data we've seen. It might be the case before four. And this doesn't factor in declining immunity over time. It might make sense to keep taking shots every half a year forever, until COVID mutates into something less deadly perhaps.
  - velcii 5y ago
    >You'll asymptote, so you'll stop at the point where the marginal benefit of an additional shot is less than the marginal financial cost, marginal opportunity cost and marginal cost of side effects all combined. But this is already the case for young people and people who already had covid and recovered, but we don't see them excluded from vaccinations based on their risk profile. So I think there is no reason to think that this logic will be applied more truthfully at some arbitrary time in future.
  - iamthepieman 5y ago
    This is basically what is done with the flu shot although it's a very different mechanism in the actual vaccine.
  - tboyd47 5y ago

silisili 5y ago

As I understand it(which could be completely wrong, so take with a grain of salt), there is no actual 'stopping' variants. The idea is to keep tricking your body with mock spike proteins, so that your body builds defenses against it. And data shows the more shots you get, the more your body builds resistance. So when the real thing arrives, it doesn't affect the host as much, if at all.

lupire 5y ago
Is the booster customized for Delta? The article doesn't say.
- silisili 5y ago
  The boosters in question are not at this time. Same as other shot. It's confusing because Pfizer was touting they could modify boosters for variants months ago.
- sterlind 5y ago
  No. Pfizer indicated it could develop and begin mass-producing a variant-specific booster within 100 days, if a third dose of the original vaccine is ineffective. [0] But the plan is to use the existing stock. I'd feel a lot safer if Pfizer started developing a polyvalent booster with mRNA for all significant variants. 0. http://ctmirror.org/2021/08/13/pfizer-ceo-to-public-just-trust-us-on-the-covid-booster/ http://ctmirror.org/2021/08/13/pfizer-ceo-to-public-just-tru...