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Unpopular opinion: You really cannot fight an ideology, the Taliban is so successful because it has some (if not most) support amongst the masses. If there wasn

Unpopular opinion: You really cannot fight an ideology, the Taliban is so successful because it has some (if not most) support amongst the masses. If there wasn't any, people would've resisted. May be this is a beginning of a long civil war in the nation but I doubt ordinary people will have a voice, they are surely significantly outnumbered.

throwawaysea 5y ago
I don’t think this is an accurate take. The Taliban does not have support of most of the masses. Various surveys consistently show that public support for democracy is more widespread than support for an Islamic emirate (example https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/30/afghans-want-peace-new-data-show-theyre-open-surprising-number-options/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/30/afghans-w...). This makes sense - something like 2/3rds of Afghanis are under 25. They only know a relatively peaceful life without oppression or repression, under elected governments with America’s backing. The women and children in Afghanistan don’t want a society where they can’t get educated or where music and other media are banned. People didn’t resist because the US strategy to exit so quickly left them mentally unprepared and also demoralized them by lending credence to the notion that the Taliban’s threat demanded a hasty exit. America also really didn’t make a great attempt at establishing a professional, sustainable Afghan military (see https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/how-america-failed-afghanistan/619740/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/how-americ...) which is why military generals and various reports recommended against a hasty compete exit of US troops. The first few villages and province capitals to fall made the Afghani people fearful and they are just a poor people looking to survive. It isn’t worth getting killed if they think it is an unwinnable situation. But they’re still hungry for democracy and peace.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  It could be that the drive against the Taliban in fact starts once these people under 25 see what the Taliban are like, for themselves. It is hard to resist something abstract. Of course, in North Korea, that awareness probably exists, and it doesn’t help. But maybe it’s not the same.
- silurian 5y ago
  from your own WaPo link: > on average, Afghans did not care whether the Taliban had majority control over a post-peace government.
atoav 5y ago
Do you think they have the majority in Kabul? Or is this a classical case of rural vs urban (only that in this case the rural people have a ton of firepower and the will to create laws that affect the urban people as well)? As someone who grew up in Austria and Germany I think we can fight ideologies. In fact we have to. Having strong (intolerant) ideals is not a problem until you force it on people who don't in inhumane ways.
- throwawaysea 5y ago
  Afghanistan is only slightly (~25%) urban. Polls show that a super majority of the entire population (including rural) favor democratic elections and not a council of mullahs (which is how the Taliban’s Islamic emirate is organized).
- azth 5y ago
  > I think we can fight ideologies Which ideologies? And which ideology do you want to replace those ideologies with? Do you see the issue?
  - atoav 5y ago
    One that allows a plurality of ideologies while not opressing or killing people? Also not as new of a paradox as you might think: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance

throwawaysea 5y ago

I don’t think this is an accurate take. The Taliban does not have support of most of the masses. Various surveys consistently show that public support for democracy is more widespread than support for an Islamic emirate (example https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/30/afghans-want-peace-new-data-show-theyre-open-surprising-number-options/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/30/afghans-w...). This makes sense - something like 2/3rds of Afghanis are under 25. They only know a relatively peaceful life without oppression or repression, under elected governments with America’s backing. The women and children in Afghanistan don’t want a society where they can’t get educated or where music and other media are banned. People didn’t resist because the US strategy to exit so quickly left them mentally unprepared and also demoralized them by lending credence to the notion that the Taliban’s threat demanded a hasty exit. America also really didn’t make a great attempt at establishing a professional, sustainable Afghan military (see https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/how-america-failed-afghanistan/619740/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/how-americ...) which is why military generals and various reports recommended against a hasty compete exit of US troops. The first few villages and province capitals to fall made the Afghani people fearful and they are just a poor people looking to survive. It isn’t worth getting killed if they think it is an unwinnable situation. But they’re still hungry for democracy and peace.

rich_sasha 5y ago
It could be that the drive against the Taliban in fact starts once these people under 25 see what the Taliban are like, for themselves. It is hard to resist something abstract. Of course, in North Korea, that awareness probably exists, and it doesn’t help. But maybe it’s not the same.
silurian 5y ago
from your own WaPo link: > on average, Afghans did not care whether the Taliban had majority control over a post-peace government.

atoav 5y ago

Do you think they have the majority in Kabul? Or is this a classical case of rural vs urban (only that in this case the rural people have a ton of firepower and the will to create laws that affect the urban people as well)? As someone who grew up in Austria and Germany I think we can fight ideologies. In fact we have to. Having strong (intolerant) ideals is not a problem until you force it on people who don't in inhumane ways.

throwawaysea 5y ago
Afghanistan is only slightly (~25%) urban. Polls show that a super majority of the entire population (including rural) favor democratic elections and not a council of mullahs (which is how the Taliban’s Islamic emirate is organized).
azth 5y ago
> I think we can fight ideologies Which ideologies? And which ideology do you want to replace those ideologies with? Do you see the issue?
- atoav 5y ago
  One that allows a plurality of ideologies while not opressing or killing people? Also not as new of a paradox as you might think: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance