Eh, I think a few of your points are sort-of correct, but transformational goals could work if we were more willing to commit to manpower, occupation, hard meas

Eh, I think a few of your points are sort-of correct, but transformational goals could work if we were more willing to commit to manpower, occupation, hard measures, and direct control (not saying that we should, or that it fits with modern sensibilities). On top of that, "preventing the production of terrorists" (to paraphrase) was a stated goal of Afghanistan and it doesn't seem obvious how it can be fulfilled with either the current outcome or an "invade, accomplish, withdraw" operation unless we intended to just entirely massacre the populace to the point that the nation becomes a giant wildlife reserve. There are relatively few (if any) cases of forced national reform lasting 40+ years with the intent to have a relatively "free democracy" at the end so I'm also having trouble considering your contention about transformation proven. (Though I definitely concur a single birth to adult score of years seems an unlikely interval for success with half-measures.)