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That's the topic of the article. You are much less likely to end up in a hospital or ICU if you are vaccinated, but it won't be extraordinary, especially if you

That's the topic of the article. You are much less likely to end up in a hospital or ICU if you are vaccinated, but it won't be extraordinary, especially if you are old. > What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older.

nl 5y ago
> > What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. This is a bad interpretation by the article's author. At some point (at 100% vaccination rate) we'd expect 100% of people in hospital to be vaccinated. Talking about "breakthrough" cases and how rare they are depends on the absolute number of infections. This article doesn't have that data but it does say this: > Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. The population is 3.9m, so 2500 cases per day. According to https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel it is actually up to 6000 cases per day. So there are probably 100K+ active cases. 303 (ie, 0.59 * 514) cases of vaccinated people is 0.26%. That's a pretty low rate.
- edanm 5y ago
  Not super important, but yesterday there were 8,646 new cases detected.
- T-A 5y ago
  > The population is 3.9m, so 2500 cases per day. According to https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel it is actually up to 6000 cases per day. The population is 9.3 million, so 650 cases/million is indeed about 6000 cases per day.
  - nl 5y ago
    Arhhh! I swear it said 3.9M before, but maybe I'm wrong.
- smnrchrds 5y ago
  Regardless of the rate, the absolute number is staggeringly high. As you said, Israel has 303 fully vaccinated people hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19. Adjusting for population, that's the equivalent of the US having 10,700 fully vaccinated people hospitalized at any one point, and that's just for critical and severe cases. If they all need ICU beds, that's like having 10 to 20% of America's ICU beds permanently occupied by Covid patients. It's still much better than the case without vaccines, but if these numbers are true, there is a lot of cause for concern.
  - nl 5y ago
    Just noting that generally speaking severe COVID patients aren't in ICU now that treatment is better. Indeed it is a lot, but it's comparable to the worst flu seasons. Exact numbers on ICU utilisation are hard to find, but US hospitals have struggled in the past: https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-20180116-htmlstory.html https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-2018... https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20190205/bad-flu-seasons-test-us-hospitals https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20190205/bad-...

nl 5y ago

> > What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. This is a bad interpretation by the article's author. At some point (at 100% vaccination rate) we'd expect 100% of people in hospital to be vaccinated. Talking about "breakthrough" cases and how rare they are depends on the absolute number of infections. This article doesn't have that data but it does say this: > Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. The population is 3.9m, so 2500 cases per day. According to https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel it is actually up to 6000 cases per day. So there are probably 100K+ active cases. 303 (ie, 0.59 * 514) cases of vaccinated people is 0.26%. That's a pretty low rate.

edanm 5y ago
Not super important, but yesterday there were 8,646 new cases detected.
T-A 5y ago
> The population is 3.9m, so 2500 cases per day. According to https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/israel it is actually up to 6000 cases per day. The population is 9.3 million, so 650 cases/million is indeed about 6000 cases per day.
- nl 5y ago
  Arhhh! I swear it said 3.9M before, but maybe I'm wrong.
smnrchrds 5y ago
Regardless of the rate, the absolute number is staggeringly high. As you said, Israel has 303 fully vaccinated people hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19. Adjusting for population, that's the equivalent of the US having 10,700 fully vaccinated people hospitalized at any one point, and that's just for critical and severe cases. If they all need ICU beds, that's like having 10 to 20% of America's ICU beds permanently occupied by Covid patients. It's still much better than the case without vaccines, but if these numbers are true, there is a lot of cause for concern.
- nl 5y ago
  Just noting that generally speaking severe COVID patients aren't in ICU now that treatment is better. Indeed it is a lot, but it's comparable to the worst flu seasons. Exact numbers on ICU utilisation are hard to find, but US hospitals have struggled in the past: https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-20180116-htmlstory.html https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flu-demand-2018... https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20190205/bad-flu-seasons-test-us-hospitals https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20190205/bad-...