4 ms·

"The people of today can do the same with Covid."? The plague wiped out 1/2 of Europeans and Smallpox maybe the majority of Aboriginals. Or something like that

"The people of today can do the same with Covid."? The plague wiped out 1/2 of Europeans and Smallpox maybe the majority of Aboriginals. Or something like that. Yes, 'we can survive' I don't think anyone doubts that. The question is, is it going to kill several million Americans or more during it's run. Hopefully not but I'm also someone can show us what the light at the end of this tunnel looks like.

tinus_hn 5y ago
Covid has a below 1% case fatality rate. It is not going to ‘kill several million Americans’.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > Covid has a below 1% case fatality rate. The US has 622K fatalities on 37M cases, which is a 1.68% CFR (and is an undercount, because some current cases that will be fatalities aren't yet.) Of course, CFR isn't a constant, it varies with current healthcare overload and the lethality of different strains, among other factors.
  - tinus_hn 5y ago
    I love how now the fatalities are an undercount and the number of cases is a certainty so it fits this shoehorned argument. In reality the fatalities are ‘people who died within a certain period after being tested positive’ and an enormous amount of cases without any symptoms go undetected.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > I love how now the fatalities are an undercount and the number of cases is a certainty so it fits this shoehorned argument. Cases are a certainty basically by definition (now, if you want to do the usual thing and argue that we should look at IFR and not CFR, that’s a different story, but I’m not the one who introduced a false claim about CFR.) > an enormous amount of cases without any symptoms go undetected. By definition, if an infection goes undetected, its not a case.
- jollybean 5y ago
  Of course not that's my point - 'if' millions of Americans die, it's not really comforting to say 'oh we'll make it through'. Of course we'll make it through, that's not the issue.

tinus_hn 5y ago

Covid has a below 1% case fatality rate. It is not going to ‘kill several million Americans’.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> Covid has a below 1% case fatality rate. The US has 622K fatalities on 37M cases, which is a 1.68% CFR (and is an undercount, because some current cases that will be fatalities aren't yet.) Of course, CFR isn't a constant, it varies with current healthcare overload and the lethality of different strains, among other factors.
- tinus_hn 5y ago
  I love how now the fatalities are an undercount and the number of cases is a certainty so it fits this shoehorned argument. In reality the fatalities are ‘people who died within a certain period after being tested positive’ and an enormous amount of cases without any symptoms go undetected.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > I love how now the fatalities are an undercount and the number of cases is a certainty so it fits this shoehorned argument. Cases are a certainty basically by definition (now, if you want to do the usual thing and argue that we should look at IFR and not CFR, that’s a different story, but I’m not the one who introduced a false claim about CFR.) > an enormous amount of cases without any symptoms go undetected. By definition, if an infection goes undetected, its not a case.
jollybean 5y ago
Of course not that's my point - 'if' millions of Americans die, it's not really comforting to say 'oh we'll make it through'. Of course we'll make it through, that's not the issue.