3 ms·
That's not the joke. The point is that the sun exploding is extremely rare, so you can essentially conclude that the trial is a false positive. If you just look
by RogerL 5y ago
That's not the joke. The point is that the sun exploding is extremely rare, so you can essentially conclude that the trial is a false positive. If you just look at the p-value you ignore p(B| not A) (false positive), and conclude that the sun exploded (no actual statistician would make that claim in this example, but they sure do in more subtle situations).