I don’t think we evolved to think about statistics in an intuitive manner. I think we tended to think more causally and with computationally less intensive heur

I don’t think we evolved to think about statistics in an intuitive manner. I think we tended to think more causally and with computationally less intensive heuristics. Asking most people about the birthday problem veridical paradox is a quick way to illustrate this. I would also argue it’s why humans are bad at estimating risks regarding low probability events. See: spacecraft mishaps that seem obvious in hindsight