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There's also a fundamental difference in the population between these places that might have somethingn to do with it.

aksss 5y ago
Something we shouldn't overlook is that Afghanistan is land-locked, Germany and Japan are not. The lack of coastline is a serious impediment to economic and civil development. Without any opportunity to build serious industry in Afghanistan, the effort would at least take far longer than Japan and Germany, both of which also had an existing culture of manufacturing and industry to build upon. One may say that Afghanistan is also doomed to forever be a "developing" nation given this constraint. How many first-world landlocked nations can you name? Great, now how many outside the EU trade and border alliances? Right. Edit: here's some source data with interesting stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landlocked_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landlocked_country Interesting to me is that the only landlocked countries with higher populations are Ethiopia and Uganda. Also, their only escape from this state of affairs would be a trade/border alliance with a neighboring country that does have coastline. Prospects look pretty dismal in that candidate list.
- luckylion 5y ago
  The "land-locked idea" sounds weird. There are other third-world-countries on the same level of Afghanistan that have direct access to the sea, and as you mentioned yourself, there are land-locked countries in Europe (that have been doing well even before the EU). The primary hindrance is culture, not coast.
  - aksss 5y ago
    Having coastal access doesn’t guarantee you become first-world. That’s a bad take-away. Not having coastal access virtually guarantees a country will stay in second/third world status unless part of an empire or trade federation that can provide such access (as the only examples of first-world landlocked nations are). So this seems a pretty determinate factor, all else being equal. And one that has been known since day one. The question is, what are you expecting to build the nation into if coastline dictates its access to markets?
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      I think that's a bad take. Take Switzerland, for instance, or Austria. They were first-world countries before they were part of a trade federation. And, in fact, they were invited into the trade federation because they were first-world countries. (Yes, Austria was part of an empire. No, Switzerland wasn't.)
      - aksss 5y ago
        Defining countries as "first world" wasn't even a thing until after Switzerland had joined the League of Nations. And Switzerland was, in fact, part of (and [charitably] aligned with) a few different empires in its day, to say the least possible about that. They are (and in modern history always were) dependent upon other nations for their trade routes which is determinate in their first-world status. What argument are you trying to advance? That because Switzerland is first-world and landlocked - one of a few exceptions to the rule, surrounded by and allied with some of the planet's most powerful first-world nations - that Afghanistan could be expected to become one of the exceptions too? The fact that the word "miracle" accompanies any explanation of Swiss economics ("The Swiss Miracle") should tell you that the odds of replicating their circumstances are long. Switzerland, Austria, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, the Czech Republic are all exceptions because they're unusual. They benefit immensely from being small populations with developed and friendly neighbors. Afghanistan is thirty million people occupying a country whose borders are notoriously unsafe, whose regions are partly characterized by their ruling warlord, and whose chief product is agricultural. Who are Afghanistan's neighbors with coastal access? China, Iran, and Pakistan. What are the prospects, as you build up industrialized resource development (mining, wells) in Afghanistan, for leveraging your coastal access rights with friends and borders like that? Coastal access is not just about exports, either. Switzerland's geography, population of 8m, and history in Western Europe are hardly a useful roadmap for Afghanistan because the circumstances of each country are quite different.
        toast0 5y ago
        > Who are Afghanistan's neighbors with coastal access? China, Iran, and Pakistan. Adding to your point, it's a long way across China, and the border with Afghanistan is far away from populations and ports. I don't think it's great for trade, even though trade with China is certainly important.
  - toast0 5y ago
    World trade tends to happen via oceans. If you have a cost with a decent port, you can trade with a lot of countries at low cost. If you don't, you'll have to make arrangements to get your goods through neighboring countries to get to the port and that adds costs. Wikipedia says Afghanistan has rail links to neighboring Uzbekistan and Terkmenistan, which are also landlocked; if planned rail lines to Iran and Pakistan are constructed, that would certainly help with access to ports.
  - blacktriangle 5y ago
    Land-locked, Jared Diamond's East-west theory, tropical vs seasonal, people have been going through gyrations forever to refuse to accept that just maybe different cultures have different outcomes.
    - aksss 5y ago
      In this case, the differences are quantifiable and consistent. Different cultures do have different outcomes. But two similar cultures, one living in a landlocked state and the other having coastline, will have different development speeds.

Something we shouldn't overlook is that Afghanistan is land-locked, Germany and Japan are not. The lack of coastline is a serious impediment to economic and civil development. Without any opportunity to build serious industry in Afghanistan, the effort would at least take far longer than Japan and Germany, both of which also had an existing culture of manufacturing and industry to build upon. One may say that Afghanistan is also doomed to forever be a "developing" nation given this constraint. How many first-world landlocked nations can you name? Great, now how many outside the EU trade and border alliances? Right. Edit: here's some source data with interesting stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landlocked_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landlocked_country Interesting to me is that the only landlocked countries with higher populations are Ethiopia and Uganda. Also, their only escape from this state of affairs would be a trade/border alliance with a neighboring country that does have coastline. Prospects look pretty dismal in that candidate list.

luckylion 5y ago
The "land-locked idea" sounds weird. There are other third-world-countries on the same level of Afghanistan that have direct access to the sea, and as you mentioned yourself, there are land-locked countries in Europe (that have been doing well even before the EU). The primary hindrance is culture, not coast.
- aksss 5y ago
  Having coastal access doesn’t guarantee you become first-world. That’s a bad take-away. Not having coastal access virtually guarantees a country will stay in second/third world status unless part of an empire or trade federation that can provide such access (as the only examples of first-world landlocked nations are). So this seems a pretty determinate factor, all else being equal. And one that has been known since day one. The question is, what are you expecting to build the nation into if coastline dictates its access to markets?
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    I think that's a bad take. Take Switzerland, for instance, or Austria. They were first-world countries before they were part of a trade federation. And, in fact, they were invited into the trade federation because they were first-world countries. (Yes, Austria was part of an empire. No, Switzerland wasn't.)
    - aksss 5y ago
      Defining countries as "first world" wasn't even a thing until after Switzerland had joined the League of Nations. And Switzerland was, in fact, part of (and [charitably] aligned with) a few different empires in its day, to say the least possible about that. They are (and in modern history always were) dependent upon other nations for their trade routes which is determinate in their first-world status. What argument are you trying to advance? That because Switzerland is first-world and landlocked - one of a few exceptions to the rule, surrounded by and allied with some of the planet's most powerful first-world nations - that Afghanistan could be expected to become one of the exceptions too? The fact that the word "miracle" accompanies any explanation of Swiss economics ("The Swiss Miracle") should tell you that the odds of replicating their circumstances are long. Switzerland, Austria, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, the Czech Republic are all exceptions because they're unusual. They benefit immensely from being small populations with developed and friendly neighbors. Afghanistan is thirty million people occupying a country whose borders are notoriously unsafe, whose regions are partly characterized by their ruling warlord, and whose chief product is agricultural. Who are Afghanistan's neighbors with coastal access? China, Iran, and Pakistan. What are the prospects, as you build up industrialized resource development (mining, wells) in Afghanistan, for leveraging your coastal access rights with friends and borders like that? Coastal access is not just about exports, either. Switzerland's geography, population of 8m, and history in Western Europe are hardly a useful roadmap for Afghanistan because the circumstances of each country are quite different.
      - toast0 5y ago
        > Who are Afghanistan's neighbors with coastal access? China, Iran, and Pakistan. Adding to your point, it's a long way across China, and the border with Afghanistan is far away from populations and ports. I don't think it's great for trade, even though trade with China is certainly important.
- toast0 5y ago
  World trade tends to happen via oceans. If you have a cost with a decent port, you can trade with a lot of countries at low cost. If you don't, you'll have to make arrangements to get your goods through neighboring countries to get to the port and that adds costs. Wikipedia says Afghanistan has rail links to neighboring Uzbekistan and Terkmenistan, which are also landlocked; if planned rail lines to Iran and Pakistan are constructed, that would certainly help with access to ports.
- blacktriangle 5y ago
  Land-locked, Jared Diamond's East-west theory, tropical vs seasonal, people have been going through gyrations forever to refuse to accept that just maybe different cultures have different outcomes.
  - aksss 5y ago
    In this case, the differences are quantifiable and consistent. Different cultures do have different outcomes. But two similar cultures, one living in a landlocked state and the other having coastline, will have different development speeds.