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Maybe I'm just missing the joke here, but "Bayesian reasoning" is hardly needed to realize that if the sun did explode, the $50 you'd lose in the bet is worthle
by tomjakubowski 5y ago
Maybe I'm just missing the joke here, but "Bayesian reasoning" is hardly needed to realize that if the sun did explode, the $50 you'd lose in the bet is worthless anyway.
- RogerL 5y agoThat's not the joke. The point is that the sun exploding is extremely rare, so you can essentially conclude that the trial is a false positive. If you just look at the p-value you ignore p(B| not A) (false positive), and conclude that the sun exploded (no actual statistician would make that claim in this example, but they sure do in more subtle situations).