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This is a problem for AMD especially, but also Nvidia. Not so much for Intel. They're just budging in line with their superior firepower. Intel even bought out

This is a problem for AMD especially, but also Nvidia. Not so much for Intel. They're just budging in line with their superior firepower. Intel even bought out first dibs on TSMC 3nm out from under Apple. I'll be interested to see the market's reaction to this once everyone realizes that Intel is hitting AMD where it hurts and sees the inevitable outcome. This is one of the smartest moves by Intel, make their own stuff and consume production from all their competitors, which do nothing but paper designs. Nvidia and especially AMD took a risk not being in the fabrication business, and now we'll see the full repercussions. It's a good play (outsourcing) in good times, not so much when things get tight like today.

wmf 5y ago
This is a problem for AMD especially Probably not. AMD has had their N7/N6 orders in for years. They're just budging in line with their superior firepower. Intel even bought out first dibs on TSMC 3nm out from under Apple. There's no evidence this is happening and people with TSMC experience say it's not happening. Nvidia and especially AMD took a risk not being in the fabrication business Yes, and it paid off dramatically. If AMD stayed with their in-house fabs (now GloFo) they'd probably be dead on 14nm now.
- BuckRogers 5y ago
  Do you have sources for any of your claims? Other than going fabless being a fantastic way to cut costs and management challenges, but increase longterm supply line risk, none of that is anything that I've heard. Here are sources for my claims. AMD on TSMC 3nm for Zen5. Will be squeezed by Intel and Apple- https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-3nm-zen5-apus-codenamed-strix-point-rumored-to-feature-big-little-cores https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-3nm-zen5-apus-codenamed-stri... Intel consuming a good portion of TSMC 3nm- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/intel-locks-down-all-remaining-tsmc-3nm-production-capacity-boxing-out-amd-and-apple/ar-AANfRXX https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/intel-locks-down-a... I see zero upside with these developments for AMD, and to a lesser degree, Nvidia, who are better diversified with Samsung and also rumored to be in talks with fabricating at Intel as well.
  - wmf 5y ago
    I expect AMD to start using N3 after Apple and Intel have moved on to N2 (or maybe 20A in Intel's case) in 2024 so there's less competition for wafers.
  - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
    > Will be squeezed by Intel and Apple This doesn't really work. If there is more demand, they'll build more fabs. It doesn't happen overnight -- that's why we're in a crunch right now -- but we're talking about years of lead time here. TSMC is also not stupid. It's better for them for their customers to compete with each other instead of having to negotiate with a monopolist, so their incentive is to make sure none of them can crush the others. > I see zero upside with these developments for AMD, and to a lesser degree, Nvidia If Intel uses its own fabs, Intel makes money and uses the money to improve Intel's process which AMD can't use. If Intel uses TSMC's fabs, TSMC makes money and uses the money to improve TSMC's process which AMD does use.
    - BuckRogers 5y ago
      >TSMC is also not stupid. It's better for them for their customers to compete It depends how much money is involved. I don't think TSMC, nor any business is the master chess player you're envisioning, losing billions to instead worry about AMD's woes. But rather consider AMD's troubles as something they'll have to sort out on their own in due time. They're on their own. Now, AMD and TSMC do have a good relationship. But large infusions of wealth corrupt even the most stalwart companions. This is one of those things that people don't need to debate, we'll see the results on 3nm. At a minimum, it looks like Intel is going to push AMD out of TSMC's leading nodes. There's no way to size this up as good news for AMD. >If Intel uses TSMC's fabs, TSMC makes money and uses the money to improve TSMC's process which AMD does use. TSMC is going to make money without Intel anyway. Choking AMD may not be their intention, but it's certainly a guaranteed side effect of it. Intel makes so much product that they are capable of using up their own space, and others. And now the GPUs are coming. Intel makes 10-times the profit AMD does per year. If AMD didn't have an x86 license, no one would utter these two companies names in the same sentence.

wmf 5y ago

This is a problem for AMD especially Probably not. AMD has had their N7/N6 orders in for years. They're just budging in line with their superior firepower. Intel even bought out first dibs on TSMC 3nm out from under Apple. There's no evidence this is happening and people with TSMC experience say it's not happening. Nvidia and especially AMD took a risk not being in the fabrication business Yes, and it paid off dramatically. If AMD stayed with their in-house fabs (now GloFo) they'd probably be dead on 14nm now.

BuckRogers 5y ago
Do you have sources for any of your claims? Other than going fabless being a fantastic way to cut costs and management challenges, but increase longterm supply line risk, none of that is anything that I've heard. Here are sources for my claims. AMD on TSMC 3nm for Zen5. Will be squeezed by Intel and Apple- https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-3nm-zen5-apus-codenamed-strix-point-rumored-to-feature-big-little-cores https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-3nm-zen5-apus-codenamed-stri... Intel consuming a good portion of TSMC 3nm- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/intel-locks-down-all-remaining-tsmc-3nm-production-capacity-boxing-out-amd-and-apple/ar-AANfRXX https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/intel-locks-down-a... I see zero upside with these developments for AMD, and to a lesser degree, Nvidia, who are better diversified with Samsung and also rumored to be in talks with fabricating at Intel as well.
- wmf 5y ago
  I expect AMD to start using N3 after Apple and Intel have moved on to N2 (or maybe 20A in Intel's case) in 2024 so there's less competition for wafers.
- AnthonyMouse 5y ago
  > Will be squeezed by Intel and Apple This doesn't really work. If there is more demand, they'll build more fabs. It doesn't happen overnight -- that's why we're in a crunch right now -- but we're talking about years of lead time here. TSMC is also not stupid. It's better for them for their customers to compete with each other instead of having to negotiate with a monopolist, so their incentive is to make sure none of them can crush the others. > I see zero upside with these developments for AMD, and to a lesser degree, Nvidia If Intel uses its own fabs, Intel makes money and uses the money to improve Intel's process which AMD can't use. If Intel uses TSMC's fabs, TSMC makes money and uses the money to improve TSMC's process which AMD does use.
  - BuckRogers 5y ago
    >TSMC is also not stupid. It's better for them for their customers to compete It depends how much money is involved. I don't think TSMC, nor any business is the master chess player you're envisioning, losing billions to instead worry about AMD's woes. But rather consider AMD's troubles as something they'll have to sort out on their own in due time. They're on their own. Now, AMD and TSMC do have a good relationship. But large infusions of wealth corrupt even the most stalwart companions. This is one of those things that people don't need to debate, we'll see the results on 3nm. At a minimum, it looks like Intel is going to push AMD out of TSMC's leading nodes. There's no way to size this up as good news for AMD. >If Intel uses TSMC's fabs, TSMC makes money and uses the money to improve TSMC's process which AMD does use. TSMC is going to make money without Intel anyway. Choking AMD may not be their intention, but it's certainly a guaranteed side effect of it. Intel makes so much product that they are capable of using up their own space, and others. And now the GPUs are coming. Intel makes 10-times the profit AMD does per year. If AMD didn't have an x86 license, no one would utter these two companies names in the same sentence.