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Teslas Autopilot system is almost 10X safer than the average human driver already based on the latest 2021 Q1 numbers. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafet

Teslas Autopilot system is almost 10X safer than the average human driver already based on the latest 2021 Q1 numbers. https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/VehicleSafetyReport

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
That impressive claim narrows to approximately the noise floor if you compare to comparable drivers in comparable cars.
- deleted 5y ago
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ben_w 5y ago
> In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. I think the comparison should be Tesla with/without AI, not Tesla/not-Tesla; so roughly either x2 or x4 depending on what the other active safety features do. It’s not nothing, but it’s much less than the current sales pitch — and the current sales pitch is itself the problem here, for many legislators.
- Ajedi32 5y ago
  > we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged [...] for those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven This still isn't the correct comparison. Major selection bias with comparing miles with autopilot engaged to miles without it engaged, since autopilot cannot be engaged in all situations. A better test would be to compare accidents in Tesla vehicles with the autopilot feature enabled (engaged or not) to accidents in Tesla vehicles with the autopilot feature disabled.
  - HPsquared 5y ago
    Even then, there's selection: people who do a lot of highway driving are more likely to opt for Autopilot than those who mostly drive in the city.
- bluGill 5y ago
  As was stated elsewhere, most accidents happen in city driving where autopilot cannot be activated so the with/without AI is meaningless. We need to figure out when the AI could have been activated but wasn't, if you do that then you are correct.
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    On the contrary to your overall point: The fatal crash rate per miles driven is almost 2 times higher in rural areas than urban areas. Urban areas may have more accidents, but the speeds are likely lower (fender benders). https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/urban-rural-comparison https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/urban...
  - freshpots 5y ago
    "..most accidents happen in city driving where autopilot cannot be activated so the with." Yes it can. The only time it can't be activated is if there is no clearly marked center line.
Ajedi32 5y ago
Tesla's vehicles are almost 10X safer than the average vehicle. Whether their autopilot system is contributing positively or negatively to that safety record is unclear. The real test of this would be: of all Tesla vehicles, are the ones with autopilot enabled statistically safer or less safe than the ones without autopilot enabled?
input_sh 5y ago
...according to Tesla, based on the data nobody else can see?
czzr 5y ago
No, it’s not. I guess we’re doomed to see this at-best-misleading-but-really-just-straight-up-lying analysis every time there’s an article about this. Makes me laugh, especially with the “geeks are immune to marketing” trope that floats around here equally as regularly.
ra7 5y ago
Tesla's safety report lacks data and is extremely misleading. 1. Autopilot only works on (or intended to work on) highways. But they are comparing their highway record to all accident records including city driving, where accident rate is far higher than highway driving. 2. They're also comparing with every vehicle in the United States including millions of older vehicles. Modern vehicles are built for higher safety and have a ton of active safety features (emergency braking, collision prevention etc). Older vehicles are much more prone to accidents and that skews the numbers. The reality is Teslas are no safer than any other vehicles in its class ($40k+). Their safety report is purely marketing spin.
- deegles 5y ago
  They also include miles driven by previous versions of their software in the “safe miles driven” tally. There’s no guarantee any improvement would not have resulted in more accidents. They should reset the counter on every release.
- wilg 5y ago
  > The reality is Teslas are no safer than any other vehicles in its class ($40k+). Would another way of saying this be that they are as safe as other vehicles in that class? And that therefore Autopilot is not more unsafe than driving those other cars?
  - ra7 5y ago
    I would probably agree, but I also think it’s a case of “need more data”. We should really compare Autopilot with its competitors like GM’s Super Cruise or Ford’s Blue Cruise, both of which offer more capabilities than Autopilot. That will show if Tesla’s driver assist system is more or less safe than their competitors product.
    - ggreer 5y ago
      What capabilities does GM or Ford have that Tesla doesn't? Neither GM nor Ford have rolled out automatic lane changing. Teslas have been doing that since 2019. The reason GM's Super Cruise got a higher rating by Consumer Reports was because CR didn't even test the capabilities that only Tesla had (such as automatic lane change and taking offramps/onramps). Also, the majority of the evaluation criteria weren't about capabilities. eg: "unresponsive driver", "clear when safe to use", and "keeping the driver engaged".[1] 1. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/cadillac-super-cruise-outperforms-other-active-driving-assistance-systems/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/cadillac-super-cr...
deleted 5y ago
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FireBeyond 5y ago
Tesla's driving is skewed, hugely. There are plenty of situations where AP is turned off that are less safe in general. AP has the luxury of being able to be turned off in less than ideal conditions. Human drivers can't do that. It's the reason why only Tesla touts these numbers. They're inaccurate and misleading.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

That impressive claim narrows to approximately the noise floor if you compare to comparable drivers in comparable cars.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

ben_w 5y ago

> In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 978 thousand miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. I think the comparison should be Tesla with/without AI, not Tesla/not-Tesla; so roughly either x2 or x4 depending on what the other active safety features do. It’s not nothing, but it’s much less than the current sales pitch — and the current sales pitch is itself the problem here, for many legislators.

Ajedi32 5y ago
> we registered one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged [...] for those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven This still isn't the correct comparison. Major selection bias with comparing miles with autopilot engaged to miles without it engaged, since autopilot cannot be engaged in all situations. A better test would be to compare accidents in Tesla vehicles with the autopilot feature enabled (engaged or not) to accidents in Tesla vehicles with the autopilot feature disabled.
- HPsquared 5y ago
  Even then, there's selection: people who do a lot of highway driving are more likely to opt for Autopilot than those who mostly drive in the city.
bluGill 5y ago
As was stated elsewhere, most accidents happen in city driving where autopilot cannot be activated so the with/without AI is meaningless. We need to figure out when the AI could have been activated but wasn't, if you do that then you are correct.
- Robotbeat 5y ago
  On the contrary to your overall point: The fatal crash rate per miles driven is almost 2 times higher in rural areas than urban areas. Urban areas may have more accidents, but the speeds are likely lower (fender benders). https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/urban-rural-comparison https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/urban...
- freshpots 5y ago
  "..most accidents happen in city driving where autopilot cannot be activated so the with." Yes it can. The only time it can't be activated is if there is no clearly marked center line.

Ajedi32 5y ago

Tesla's vehicles are almost 10X safer than the average vehicle. Whether their autopilot system is contributing positively or negatively to that safety record is unclear. The real test of this would be: of all Tesla vehicles, are the ones with autopilot enabled statistically safer or less safe than the ones without autopilot enabled?

input_sh 5y ago

...according to Tesla, based on the data nobody else can see?

czzr 5y ago

No, it’s not. I guess we’re doomed to see this at-best-misleading-but-really-just-straight-up-lying analysis every time there’s an article about this. Makes me laugh, especially with the “geeks are immune to marketing” trope that floats around here equally as regularly.

ra7 5y ago

Tesla's safety report lacks data and is extremely misleading. 1. Autopilot only works on (or intended to work on) highways. But they are comparing their highway record to all accident records including city driving, where accident rate is far higher than highway driving. 2. They're also comparing with every vehicle in the United States including millions of older vehicles. Modern vehicles are built for higher safety and have a ton of active safety features (emergency braking, collision prevention etc). Older vehicles are much more prone to accidents and that skews the numbers. The reality is Teslas are no safer than any other vehicles in its class ($40k+). Their safety report is purely marketing spin.

deegles 5y ago
They also include miles driven by previous versions of their software in the “safe miles driven” tally. There’s no guarantee any improvement would not have resulted in more accidents. They should reset the counter on every release.
wilg 5y ago
> The reality is Teslas are no safer than any other vehicles in its class ($40k+). Would another way of saying this be that they are as safe as other vehicles in that class? And that therefore Autopilot is not more unsafe than driving those other cars?
- ra7 5y ago
  I would probably agree, but I also think it’s a case of “need more data”. We should really compare Autopilot with its competitors like GM’s Super Cruise or Ford’s Blue Cruise, both of which offer more capabilities than Autopilot. That will show if Tesla’s driver assist system is more or less safe than their competitors product.
  - ggreer 5y ago
    What capabilities does GM or Ford have that Tesla doesn't? Neither GM nor Ford have rolled out automatic lane changing. Teslas have been doing that since 2019. The reason GM's Super Cruise got a higher rating by Consumer Reports was because CR didn't even test the capabilities that only Tesla had (such as automatic lane change and taking offramps/onramps). Also, the majority of the evaluation criteria weren't about capabilities. eg: "unresponsive driver", "clear when safe to use", and "keeping the driver engaged".[1] 1. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/cadillac-super-cruise-outperforms-other-active-driving-assistance-systems/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/cadillac-super-cr...

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

FireBeyond 5y ago

Tesla's driving is skewed, hugely. There are plenty of situations where AP is turned off that are less safe in general. AP has the luxury of being able to be turned off in less than ideal conditions. Human drivers can't do that. It's the reason why only Tesla touts these numbers. They're inaccurate and misleading.