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Even if this was true (and as comments are already saying skepticism is clearly warranted here) frankly I just don't see it mattering. Hydrogen in vehicles is a
by xoa 5y ago
Even if this was true (and as comments are already saying skepticism is clearly warranted here) frankly I just don't see it mattering. Hydrogen in vehicles is a complete dead end. Maybe, maybe if the industry had seriously pursued it decades earlier it could have gained traction. But at this point any theoretical benefits look exactly like the theoretical benefits of so many other technologies and designs that got crushed by raw economics. As classic HN-related example would be x86 vs all the other various ISAs in the 80s and 90s. x86 wasn't the best, and as we've seen from ARM I don't think it can be said that's entirely meaningless, in theory the same investment in another ISA might have yielded better results. But it simply didn't matter, because there wasn't the same investment and would never have been given the platform effects involved. And "good enough" plus enough capital expenditure was plenty to power through everything else until a complete environment shift disrupted it.
By the same token, the main issue with batteries is range. But BEVs are coming that will push 500 miles, and from basic theory and lab work batteries have plenty ceiling. The difference between the perfect theoretical lithium based design and present ones is something like an order of magnitude, so even if we never do more than a fraction of that we could still see BEVs pushing 1000 miles at the high end. So that factor just isn't going to be a deciding issue vs all the supporting infrastructure needed.
And it is there that BEVs obliterate any other solution by riding on the same core energy infrastructure as nearly every single other piece of mass market advanced human technology which has long since gone electric. There are something on the order of 150000 fueling stations in the US. Converting all of those and all the infra supporting them to hydrogen would cost hundreds of billions if not trillion+. But with BEVs, almost all of that can be sunk into the grid instead. With that kind of investment not just local improvements but buried HVDC backbones or even super conducting continental, potentially even intercontinental backbones is on the table. And the thing is that all that investment, and all the opportunities opened up by everyone having enormous distributed energy packs that they can lean on in a variety of ways beyond just driving, benefits and can be amortized across pretty much the entire economy directly.
That's an economic steam roller if ever we've seen one. So any advantages hydrogen might in principle have alongside the many, many nasty difficulties of dealing with it will end up the same was as advantages Alpha or POWER might have had. Electrification, which abstracts and in turn offers enormous flexibility for power generation, distribution, and usage, is just too economically compelling the instant it becomes minimally feasible. The ultimate network effect.
- AYBABTME 5y agoI'm a happy BEV owner but I'm usually in the camp that hydrogen fuel cells (HFC) probably make sense in some circumstances (ships, cargo, large plane, etc). But your argument of network effects for BEV is one I hadn't considered and really strengthens BEV's case and pushes HFC use cases, in my brain, into further usually-unpragmatic-territory.
- libertine 5y agoJust a heads up, I don't have an horse on this race, or better yet, if I had to place my bet I'd go for BEVs at least for the common car. With that said, I wonder if there will be room for two or more standards (like you have diesel, petrol GPL) - despite the technology being similar on the current standards (with internal combustion engine of some sort)? I'm asking this because for example the EU is pushing for Hydrogen with an emphasis of it's application for transportation (for cars, but probably more for airplanes and ships). It's not like they aren't investing in BEVs since they are also pushing for a network of charging stations.
- GravitasFailure 5y agoThat's a good question. Diesel was kept around because diesel engines are better suited to hauling heavy loads than gasoline engines are, but I'm not seeing an equivalent niche for hydrogen unless the bulk and weight of the storage systems can be dropped to a point where they're viable for aircraft.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]