5 ms·

How smallpox claimed its final victim

51 points by morpheos137 5y ago

hbgngkkgk 5y ago
This case was mentioned multiple times on the This Week In Virology podcast as strong evidence that the lab leak hypothesis is nonsense. No pandemic was started despite the virus leaking from the lab. And no pandemic was started after all the other hundreds of lab accidents that we know off, including after the multiple leaks of the original SARS virus from China and Singapore labs. All the pandemics that we know off started naturally.
- bitexploder 5y ago
  Sample size way too small. The lab leak theory of SARS-Cov-2 is very compelling given what we know. It may not have been exactly a lab leak, either. The researchers may have gotten it “naturally” during the course of their research in the field, etc. we will never know for sure.
- morpheos137 5y ago
  If smallpox was as contagious as Covid is then a lab leak could have started a pandemic. Often times these polemical arguments against lableak origin for covid ignore important details like that.
  - amluto 5y ago
    Smallpox seems to be about as contagious as Covid as measured by R0.
- topynate 5y ago
  Doesn't strike me as particularly strong evidence. The victim's mother probably stopped a smallpox outbreak by identifying the symptoms as not-chickenpox. Unfortunately COVID-19 symptoms are not as distinctive. Rather than saying "all the pandemics that we know of started naturally", it would be more accurate to say that all pandemics started naturally, that we know of. Particularly in the case of the 1977 Russian flu, there are suspicions of an anthropogenic origin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu
- pstrateman 5y ago
  That's a pathetic argument. Most of the world was immunized against smallpox, of course it didnt spread like wild fire. The two situations couldn't be more different. covid-19 came out of the lab in wuhan china, dont fool yourself.
  - bawolff 5y ago
    Wat? We stopped routinely immunizing against small pox a long time ago.
    - mardifoufs 5y ago
      The leak mentioned in the article happened in 1978. At a time when I'm pretty sure most people were still inoculated against smallpox.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - pstrateman 5y ago
      In 1978 when this happened most of the world was immunized. That's how smallpox was eradicated in the first place.
- lisper 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization
throw0101a 5y ago
I'm currently reading Pandemic by Sonia Shah (see also her The Fever on malaria): * https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250118004 https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250118004 * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23847947-pandemic https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23847947-pandemic In it she mentions monkeypox: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus Seems that it has made the jump to humans, and those who were vaccinate against smallpox are somewhat protected against it. So it may be that we have eventually have another 'pox virus that floats around. At the very least we have a lot of the 'base research' done on each, and so developing a vaccine wouldn't be difficult.
nikkinana 5y ago
BBC is great at story telling.
coldcode 5y ago
If Covid had symptoms as physically horrific as Smallpox, Bubonic Plague or Ebola, I think there would be fewer people rejecting a vaccine.
- 34679 5y ago
  If it didn't, there would be less need for one, no?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- loicd 5y ago
  You would think that, but there was a smallpox epidemic in Montreal in 1885 where vaccination became mandatory, and people rebelled against that, attacked pharmacies selling the vaccine, etc. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89pid%C3%A9mie_de_variole_de_Montr%C3%A9al_en_1885 https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89pid%C3%A9mie_de_variole_... (in french)

51 points by morpheos137 5y ago

This case was mentioned multiple times on the This Week In Virology podcast as strong evidence that the lab leak hypothesis is nonsense. No pandemic was started despite the virus leaking from the lab. And no pandemic was started after all the other hundreds of lab accidents that we know off, including after the multiple leaks of the original SARS virus from China and Singapore labs. All the pandemics that we know off started naturally.

bitexploder 5y ago
Sample size way too small. The lab leak theory of SARS-Cov-2 is very compelling given what we know. It may not have been exactly a lab leak, either. The researchers may have gotten it “naturally” during the course of their research in the field, etc. we will never know for sure.
morpheos137 5y ago
If smallpox was as contagious as Covid is then a lab leak could have started a pandemic. Often times these polemical arguments against lableak origin for covid ignore important details like that.
- amluto 5y ago
  Smallpox seems to be about as contagious as Covid as measured by R0.
topynate 5y ago
Doesn't strike me as particularly strong evidence. The victim's mother probably stopped a smallpox outbreak by identifying the symptoms as not-chickenpox. Unfortunately COVID-19 symptoms are not as distinctive. Rather than saying "all the pandemics that we know of started naturally", it would be more accurate to say that all pandemics started naturally, that we know of. Particularly in the case of the 1977 Russian flu, there are suspicions of an anthropogenic origin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu
pstrateman 5y ago
That's a pathetic argument. Most of the world was immunized against smallpox, of course it didnt spread like wild fire. The two situations couldn't be more different. covid-19 came out of the lab in wuhan china, dont fool yourself.
- bawolff 5y ago
  Wat? We stopped routinely immunizing against small pox a long time ago.
  - mardifoufs 5y ago
    The leak mentioned in the article happened in 1978. At a time when I'm pretty sure most people were still inoculated against smallpox.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - pstrateman 5y ago
    In 1978 when this happened most of the world was immunized. That's how smallpox was eradicated in the first place.
lisper 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization

throw0101a 5y ago

I'm currently reading Pandemic by Sonia Shah (see also her The Fever on malaria): * https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250118004 https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250118004 * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23847947-pandemic https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23847947-pandemic In it she mentions monkeypox: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox_virus Seems that it has made the jump to humans, and those who were vaccinate against smallpox are somewhat protected against it. So it may be that we have eventually have another 'pox virus that floats around. At the very least we have a lot of the 'base research' done on each, and so developing a vaccine wouldn't be difficult.

nikkinana 5y ago

BBC is great at story telling.

coldcode 5y ago

If Covid had symptoms as physically horrific as Smallpox, Bubonic Plague or Ebola, I think there would be fewer people rejecting a vaccine.

34679 5y ago
If it didn't, there would be less need for one, no?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
loicd 5y ago
You would think that, but there was a smallpox epidemic in Montreal in 1885 where vaccination became mandatory, and people rebelled against that, attacked pharmacies selling the vaccine, etc. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89pid%C3%A9mie_de_variole_de_Montr%C3%A9al_en_1885 https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89pid%C3%A9mie_de_variole_... (in french)