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Good. Hopefully humanity as a whole would soon reach this phase of zero population growth (through lowered birth rate, not increase death rate). This is absolu

Good. Hopefully humanity as a whole would soon reach this phase of zero population growth (through lowered birth rate, not increase death rate). This is absolutely the only way to be long term sustainable on a single planet.

nsizx 5y ago
US ratio approaching 1 doesn't mean world population will lower but that Mohammed will replace you.
NonContro 5y ago
That's not accurate, birth rates show no signs of slowing down in parts of Africa and West Asia: https://ourworldindata.org/exports/historical-and-projected-population-by-region_v13_850x600.svg https://ourworldindata.org/exports/historical-and-projected-... "There were strong negative correlations found between national IQ and three national indicators of fertility." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289607000244 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01602... Many of these same high-fertility/low-IQ countries are trashing the environment, as indicated by plastic pollution: https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics The future you are celebrating is basically Idiocracy. Low fertility rates in the West and East Asia are a very bad thing for the future of our species and the planet.
- neverminder 5y ago
  This is what I was trying to say too. These low-IQ countries you speak of - they don't care about pollution and even if they did - at their current development stage they couldn't afford to. Africa is projected to quadruple it's population while rapidly industrializing. It doesn't take a genius to realize what impact on global warming that's gonna have.
  - crubier 5y ago
    Not if developed countries (who caused an overwhelming majority of global pollution, especially CO2) show the example by becoming sustainable economies. Then the carbon-burning Base of development will be understood as a temporary stage of development like the demographic transition.
    - cinquemb 5y ago
      > Then the carbon-burning Base of development will be understood as a temporary stage of development like the demographic transition. I honestly would believe that more if companies made long term investments and bought out infrastructure in EMs and converted it to be more clean[0], rather than rely on some kind of indirect status signaling: "The proposals will include a shortlist of existing coal-fired power plants across Asia to buy and retire well before the end of their life cycles and replace them with clean energy. "We have not settled on a precise size [financially], but would expect the pilot to acquire several coal-fired power plants at a minimum," ADB Vice President Ahmed Saeed told Nikkei Asia. HSBC is also part of the initiative which involves scouring the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia for coal-fired power plants to close a decade or more early. The initiative was first reported by Reuters this month. BlackRock and Citi are also working on the scheme, according to the report. The companies did not respond to requests for comment." Still in the word soup/lip service stage. [0] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Philippines-and-Vietnam-coal-fired-plants-to-retire-in-ADB-led-plan https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change...
  - crubier 5y ago
    You might want to read this instructive recent article https://medium.com/enquetes-ecosophiques/population-and-climate-change-88d43e23941a https://medium.com/enquetes-ecosophiques/population-and-clim...
- crubier 5y ago
  There’s a misunderstanding here. I don’t « celebrate a future with low fertility rate in the west and high fertility rate elsewhere ». I celebrate a future with a steady state demography everywhere. I just think (and I believe that this is well documented) that countries post demographic transition tend to stabilize their population, and this is a good thing. I don’t think that some countries are inherently « low IQ ». I just think that they lack development, and that in several decades they will reach the education and fertility rate of western countries. Also an American saying African countries are trashing the environment is quite a hard pill to swallow if you have a look at carbon emissions, and carbon emissions per capita.
  - neverminder 5y ago
    > if you have a look at carbon emissions, and carbon emissions per capita. You can argue about emissions per capita until you're blue in the face, but the fact is that global warming is a zero sum game and projected 4 billion population of industrializing Africa will have a significantly bigger impact than USA's stable 300 million.
    - crubier 5y ago
      Global warming is absolutely not a zero sum game. Quite the opposite actually.
      - neverminder 5y ago
        We have one planet, one atmosphere - at this point we are completely contained. If that's not a definition of zero sum game, then I don't know what is.
        crubier 5y ago
        You don't understand the definition of a zero sum game, or you don't understand global warming. In a zero sum game, if one country looses, then the other wins. In global warming, if one country looses (because the atmosphere is f*ked), then the other also looses.
hikerclimber1 5y ago
I agree.

nsizx 5y ago

US ratio approaching 1 doesn't mean world population will lower but that Mohammed will replace you.

NonContro 5y ago

That's not accurate, birth rates show no signs of slowing down in parts of Africa and West Asia: https://ourworldindata.org/exports/historical-and-projected-population-by-region_v13_850x600.svg https://ourworldindata.org/exports/historical-and-projected-... "There were strong negative correlations found between national IQ and three national indicators of fertility." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289607000244 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01602... Many of these same high-fertility/low-IQ countries are trashing the environment, as indicated by plastic pollution: https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics The future you are celebrating is basically Idiocracy. Low fertility rates in the West and East Asia are a very bad thing for the future of our species and the planet.

neverminder 5y ago
This is what I was trying to say too. These low-IQ countries you speak of - they don't care about pollution and even if they did - at their current development stage they couldn't afford to. Africa is projected to quadruple it's population while rapidly industrializing. It doesn't take a genius to realize what impact on global warming that's gonna have.
- crubier 5y ago
  Not if developed countries (who caused an overwhelming majority of global pollution, especially CO2) show the example by becoming sustainable economies. Then the carbon-burning Base of development will be understood as a temporary stage of development like the demographic transition.
  - cinquemb 5y ago
    > Then the carbon-burning Base of development will be understood as a temporary stage of development like the demographic transition. I honestly would believe that more if companies made long term investments and bought out infrastructure in EMs and converted it to be more clean[0], rather than rely on some kind of indirect status signaling: "The proposals will include a shortlist of existing coal-fired power plants across Asia to buy and retire well before the end of their life cycles and replace them with clean energy. "We have not settled on a precise size [financially], but would expect the pilot to acquire several coal-fired power plants at a minimum," ADB Vice President Ahmed Saeed told Nikkei Asia. HSBC is also part of the initiative which involves scouring the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia for coal-fired power plants to close a decade or more early. The initiative was first reported by Reuters this month. BlackRock and Citi are also working on the scheme, according to the report. The companies did not respond to requests for comment." Still in the word soup/lip service stage. [0] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Philippines-and-Vietnam-coal-fired-plants-to-retire-in-ADB-led-plan https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change...
- crubier 5y ago
  You might want to read this instructive recent article https://medium.com/enquetes-ecosophiques/population-and-climate-change-88d43e23941a https://medium.com/enquetes-ecosophiques/population-and-clim...
crubier 5y ago
There’s a misunderstanding here. I don’t « celebrate a future with low fertility rate in the west and high fertility rate elsewhere ». I celebrate a future with a steady state demography everywhere. I just think (and I believe that this is well documented) that countries post demographic transition tend to stabilize their population, and this is a good thing. I don’t think that some countries are inherently « low IQ ». I just think that they lack development, and that in several decades they will reach the education and fertility rate of western countries. Also an American saying African countries are trashing the environment is quite a hard pill to swallow if you have a look at carbon emissions, and carbon emissions per capita.
- neverminder 5y ago
  > if you have a look at carbon emissions, and carbon emissions per capita. You can argue about emissions per capita until you're blue in the face, but the fact is that global warming is a zero sum game and projected 4 billion population of industrializing Africa will have a significantly bigger impact than USA's stable 300 million.
  - crubier 5y ago
    Global warming is absolutely not a zero sum game. Quite the opposite actually.
    - neverminder 5y ago
      We have one planet, one atmosphere - at this point we are completely contained. If that's not a definition of zero sum game, then I don't know what is.
      - crubier 5y ago
        You don't understand the definition of a zero sum game, or you don't understand global warming. In a zero sum game, if one country looses, then the other wins. In global warming, if one country looses (because the atmosphere is f*ked), then the other also looses.

hikerclimber1 5y ago

I agree.