4 ms·
While I don't doubt that there are indeed pathways to countering (most of) climate change, it seems like a very weird idea to try and predict more than 40 years
by WJW 5y ago
While I don't doubt that there are indeed pathways to countering (most of) climate change, it seems like a very weird idea to try and predict more than 40 years into the future when we can't predict basic input parameters like oil demand even three months in advance. (OTOH, scientists are gonna science so you can't expect them not to make predictions of course)
- whatshisface 5y agohttps://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-oil-supply-and-demand-1971-2020 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-oil-sup... If you look at an actual chart of oil demand, it's not that hard to predict. Predictions good enough for profiting by trading are automatically difficult because of EMH. Predictions good enough for climate forecasting are not automatically difficult because the climate does not trade against you.
- Retric 5y agoExxon for example made a shockingly accurate prediction of global warming 40 years out in 1982. Critically emissions is cumulative so your annual emissions estimate may be less actuate over time but the difference between say 2x and 3x baseline annual emissions in 39 years only represents a small chunk of the total.
- MauranKilom 5y agoVisualized in this recent xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2500/ https://xkcd.com/2500/
- SubiculumCode 5y agoA rain drop forms in the sky and begins to fall. What path it takes, no one knows, but that it lands, we can surely assume. Meaning. Some precise things are hard to predict, even when the outcome is easily knowable. We can't predict where an individual molecule of O2 will be in a minute, but we know that if there is a pressure differential between two rooms, they will begin to equalize.
- foo_barrio 5y agoYou don't need a stop watch to count days. Short term fluctuations and long term trends are sometimes really different to predict.