4 ms·
Your comment sounds like you are predicting a mass human extinction, or close to it? I personally think that's incredibly far off base, but if you are confiden
by FFRefresh 5y ago
Your comment sounds like you are predicting a mass human extinction, or close to it?
I personally think that's incredibly far off base, but if you are confident in your prediction for mass doom, I recommend throwing some money into prediction markets around it. It could be a great way to calibrate your model of reality (and potentially make money if you are right!).
- vkou 5y agoIf you're betting on collapse, and you are right, you aren't going to be around to collect. If you're betting against collapse, and you are wrong, you aren't going to be around to pay up.
- FFRefresh 5y agoA few variations in line with that: If you're betting on near-total collapse, and you are right (and you survive from living in the developed world), you will be around to collect If you're betting on collapse, and you are wrong, you will be around to pay up If you bet against collapse, and you are right, you will be around to collect It should also be said that with prediction markets, you don't have to wait until the event happens before selling your position.
- yissp 5y agoLike Pascal's wager