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The data suggests there is a slight down trend in heat related deaths since 1999. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-related-

The data suggests there is a slight down trend in heat related deaths since 1999. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-related-deaths https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica... I doubt heat related deaths will be a large factor in the next decade. More people than ever have access to AC and clean water.

mbgerring 5y ago
Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. Also, I feel like this should go without saying but the climate has changed perceptibly since 1999 and will continue to get warmer for the foreseeable future, so relying on past trend lines like this is a mistake.
- ryanobjc 5y ago
  I think the go comment is kinda of like the infamous slash dot review of the iPod: “I don’t think heat deaths will be a thing in the next decade” - uh huh
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. This is true, but even in Portland, which is regarded as having one of the lowest rates of air conditioning in the nation, three out of four homes have it. We experienced around 100 deaths statewide (getting an exact count eludes me, as recently as three days ago NPR put it at 83, though earlier reports put it over 100) due to the heat wave. As long as we can keep the power going, Portland can probably find practical ways to keep the death toll very low in future heat waves. I'm guessing we will get an opportunity to test that.
throwanem 5y ago
My local power utility has ramped up its (thus far) voluntary load shedding campaign this year with rebates for usage reductions during high-demand periods (including today!), and is also pushing "smart" thermostats pretty hard, also in exchange for a minor rebate. They're "smart" in that they allow the utility to remotely shut down your AC for a 75% or 50% duty cycle, which you are not allowed to override. Don't count on AC saving all that many lives as the decade wears on.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  Rooftop solar (if you can) is the future. The cost will (must, really) come down, even if we need a "Solar Corps" (volunteers, Habitat for Humanity style) or similar to get generation on the roofs of the disadvantaged. AC load shedding will become untenable in the hottest of places, and the power grid will become taxed from demand faster than infrastructure upgrades can occur.
  - cj 5y ago
    Tesla Solar Roof comes to mind. https://www.tesla.com/solarroof https://www.tesla.com/solarroof It’s unfortunately roughly double the cost of a regular roof (and 3x as much if your current roof is already due for replacement).
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      In Australia, the cost for rooftop solar is about $1/watt. In the US, we're still higher from soft costs such as permitting, utility review and approval, and similar, putting the cost closer to $2-$3/watt (pre 26% federal tax credit). The NREL recently released an app that automates the permitting process [1], but there are still places to squeeze the fat out to drive the cost down. Tesla's solar tiles are interesting, but cost prohibitive for anyone but the wealthy. [1] https://solarapp.nrel.gov/ https://solarapp.nrel.gov/ (i facilitate, pm, and help with rooftop solar installs as time permits in the US)
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    Rooftop solar is tempting. I'm in the PNW so the economics don't work out favorably (even at $1.5/W installed, which is what I was recently quoted). But there are some non-economic advantages to having solar (as long as you have batteries) so it may still be worthwhile.
    - 5y ago
rybosworld 5y ago
That data also shows a slight uptick since the year 2000.
- hitpointdrew 5y ago
  No it doesn’t…it’s a clear down trend.
  - rybosworld 5y ago
    lol, yes it does. My point is you are cherry picking a starting point. In 1999, there was just over 2 heat deaths per million In 2000, there was just over 1 heat deaths per million In 2018, there was just over 1.5 heat deaths per million Can you explain how you extrapolate a downtrend if the starting point is 1, and the ending point is 1.5?
kibwen 5y ago
> I doubt heat related deaths will be a large factor in the next decade. More people than ever have access to AC and clean water. Won't air conditioners stop working altogether above certain temperatures? If the ambient air outside is too hot, then the heat exchanger in your AC will start absorbing heat from the outside air rather than dissipating it. On top of that, air conditioners are most efficient when the temperature differential between the outside air and the heat exchanger is large, meaning that ACs become increasingly less efficient as the temperature rises, disproportionately increasing energy usage, which exacerbates fossil fuel consumption and the risk of brownouts (at the worst possible time, no less).
- hitpointdrew 5y ago
  Most manufacturers give ratings up to 120 degrees, that doesn’t mean they totally stop working at that point, but the start to become less effective. Projections for the next century range from a 2-10 degree increase in temp. Even on the aggressive side of 10 most places on earth never see 110 today. This also assumes 0 innovation in AC technology over the next century.
  - nieve 5y ago
    The issue for heat deaths like the current situation is not just the average increase, it's the _extreme_ temperatures that are killing and they're increasing much faster than the average and occurring much more often. Take a look at any of the analyses of the last big PNW heat dome versus climate change or just skim through this piece from a subject expert: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/opinion/heat-dome-climate-change.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/opinion/heat-dome-climate... "Heat waves now occur three times as often as they did in the 1960s — on average at least six times a year in the United States in the 2010s. Record-breaking hot months are occurring five times more often than would be expected without global warming. And heat waves have become larger, affecting 25 percent more land area in the Northern Hemisphere than they did in 1980; including ocean areas, heat waves grew 50 percent."
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > Won't air conditioners stop working altogether above certain temperatures? Anecdotally, my central air didn't start to give up ground in the battle with the heat until the ambient temperature was about 115. Even then, the house only gained about 3 degrees F before coming back down a couple hours later when the ambient was back below 115. IIRC, current residential air conditioner technology is engineered with the condenser expected to run at 120F. So it makes sense that this is the threshold where it stops being effective. God forbid we ever get heat waves over 120 in Oregon, dang. I mean, we got close this last time, so never say never, but ... damn. I'll be moving if that happens.

mbgerring 5y ago

Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. Also, I feel like this should go without saying but the climate has changed perceptibly since 1999 and will continue to get warmer for the foreseeable future, so relying on past trend lines like this is a mistake.

ryanobjc 5y ago
I think the go comment is kinda of like the infamous slash dot review of the iPod: “I don’t think heat deaths will be a thing in the next decade” - uh huh
rootusrootus 5y ago
> Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. This is true, but even in Portland, which is regarded as having one of the lowest rates of air conditioning in the nation, three out of four homes have it. We experienced around 100 deaths statewide (getting an exact count eludes me, as recently as three days ago NPR put it at 83, though earlier reports put it over 100) due to the heat wave. As long as we can keep the power going, Portland can probably find practical ways to keep the death toll very low in future heat waves. I'm guessing we will get an opportunity to test that.

throwanem 5y ago

My local power utility has ramped up its (thus far) voluntary load shedding campaign this year with rebates for usage reductions during high-demand periods (including today!), and is also pushing "smart" thermostats pretty hard, also in exchange for a minor rebate. They're "smart" in that they allow the utility to remotely shut down your AC for a 75% or 50% duty cycle, which you are not allowed to override. Don't count on AC saving all that many lives as the decade wears on.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
Rooftop solar (if you can) is the future. The cost will (must, really) come down, even if we need a "Solar Corps" (volunteers, Habitat for Humanity style) or similar to get generation on the roofs of the disadvantaged. AC load shedding will become untenable in the hottest of places, and the power grid will become taxed from demand faster than infrastructure upgrades can occur.
- cj 5y ago
  Tesla Solar Roof comes to mind. https://www.tesla.com/solarroof https://www.tesla.com/solarroof It’s unfortunately roughly double the cost of a regular roof (and 3x as much if your current roof is already due for replacement).
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    In Australia, the cost for rooftop solar is about $1/watt. In the US, we're still higher from soft costs such as permitting, utility review and approval, and similar, putting the cost closer to $2-$3/watt (pre 26% federal tax credit). The NREL recently released an app that automates the permitting process [1], but there are still places to squeeze the fat out to drive the cost down. Tesla's solar tiles are interesting, but cost prohibitive for anyone but the wealthy. [1] https://solarapp.nrel.gov/ https://solarapp.nrel.gov/ (i facilitate, pm, and help with rooftop solar installs as time permits in the US)
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  Rooftop solar is tempting. I'm in the PNW so the economics don't work out favorably (even at $1.5/W installed, which is what I was recently quoted). But there are some non-economic advantages to having solar (as long as you have batteries) so it may still be worthwhile.
  - 5y ago

rybosworld 5y ago

That data also shows a slight uptick since the year 2000.

hitpointdrew 5y ago
No it doesn’t…it’s a clear down trend.
- rybosworld 5y ago
  lol, yes it does. My point is you are cherry picking a starting point. In 1999, there was just over 2 heat deaths per million In 2000, there was just over 1 heat deaths per million In 2018, there was just over 1.5 heat deaths per million Can you explain how you extrapolate a downtrend if the starting point is 1, and the ending point is 1.5?

kibwen 5y ago

> I doubt heat related deaths will be a large factor in the next decade. More people than ever have access to AC and clean water. Won't air conditioners stop working altogether above certain temperatures? If the ambient air outside is too hot, then the heat exchanger in your AC will start absorbing heat from the outside air rather than dissipating it. On top of that, air conditioners are most efficient when the temperature differential between the outside air and the heat exchanger is large, meaning that ACs become increasingly less efficient as the temperature rises, disproportionately increasing energy usage, which exacerbates fossil fuel consumption and the risk of brownouts (at the worst possible time, no less).

hitpointdrew 5y ago
Most manufacturers give ratings up to 120 degrees, that doesn’t mean they totally stop working at that point, but the start to become less effective. Projections for the next century range from a 2-10 degree increase in temp. Even on the aggressive side of 10 most places on earth never see 110 today. This also assumes 0 innovation in AC technology over the next century.
- nieve 5y ago
  The issue for heat deaths like the current situation is not just the average increase, it's the _extreme_ temperatures that are killing and they're increasing much faster than the average and occurring much more often. Take a look at any of the analyses of the last big PNW heat dome versus climate change or just skim through this piece from a subject expert: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/opinion/heat-dome-climate-change.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/opinion/heat-dome-climate... "Heat waves now occur three times as often as they did in the 1960s — on average at least six times a year in the United States in the 2010s. Record-breaking hot months are occurring five times more often than would be expected without global warming. And heat waves have become larger, affecting 25 percent more land area in the Northern Hemisphere than they did in 1980; including ocean areas, heat waves grew 50 percent."
rootusrootus 5y ago
> Won't air conditioners stop working altogether above certain temperatures? Anecdotally, my central air didn't start to give up ground in the battle with the heat until the ambient temperature was about 115. Even then, the house only gained about 3 degrees F before coming back down a couple hours later when the ambient was back below 115. IIRC, current residential air conditioner technology is engineered with the condenser expected to run at 120F. So it makes sense that this is the threshold where it stops being effective. God forbid we ever get heat waves over 120 in Oregon, dang. I mean, we got close this last time, so never say never, but ... damn. I'll be moving if that happens.