9 ms·

The next decade we are going to see a lot more heat related deaths. And unfortunately, it will disproportionally affect the poorest/most vulnerable people.

x14km2d 5y ago
should we even make it to the next decade. So far, this seems to look rather complicated.
- FFRefresh 5y ago
  Your comment sounds like you are predicting a mass human extinction, or close to it? I personally think that's incredibly far off base, but if you are confident in your prediction for mass doom, I recommend throwing some money into prediction markets around it. It could be a great way to calibrate your model of reality (and potentially make money if you are right!).
  - vkou 5y ago
    If you're betting on collapse, and you are right, you aren't going to be around to collect. If you're betting against collapse, and you are wrong, you aren't going to be around to pay up.
    - FFRefresh 5y ago
      A few variations in line with that: If you're betting on near-total collapse, and you are right (and you survive from living in the developed world), you will be around to collect If you're betting on collapse, and you are wrong, you will be around to pay up If you bet against collapse, and you are right, you will be around to collect It should also be said that with prediction markets, you don't have to wait until the event happens before selling your position.
    - yissp 5y ago
      Like Pascal's wager
hitpointdrew 5y ago
The data suggests there is a slight down trend in heat related deaths since 1999. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-related-deaths https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica... I doubt heat related deaths will be a large factor in the next decade. More people than ever have access to AC and clean water.
- mbgerring 5y ago
  Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. Also, I feel like this should go without saying but the climate has changed perceptibly since 1999 and will continue to get warmer for the foreseeable future, so relying on past trend lines like this is a mistake.
  - ryanobjc 5y ago
    I think the go comment is kinda of like the infamous slash dot review of the iPod: “I don’t think heat deaths will be a thing in the next decade” - uh huh
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    > Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. This is true, but even in Portland, which is regarded as having one of the lowest rates of air conditioning in the nation, three out of four homes have it. We experienced around 100 deaths statewide (getting an exact count eludes me, as recently as three days ago NPR put it at 83, though earlier reports put it over 100) due to the heat wave. As long as we can keep the power going, Portland can probably find practical ways to keep the death toll very low in future heat waves. I'm guessing we will get an opportunity to test that.
- throwanem 5y ago
  My local power utility has ramped up its (thus far) voluntary load shedding campaign this year with rebates for usage reductions during high-demand periods (including today!), and is also pushing "smart" thermostats pretty hard, also in exchange for a minor rebate. They're "smart" in that they allow the utility to remotely shut down your AC for a 75% or 50% duty cycle, which you are not allowed to override. Don't count on AC saving all that many lives as the decade wears on.
bamboozled 5y ago
I guess that’s why nothing is done about climate change in a hurry. We’re told it will affect us all, but obviously, some people believe that with money it will affect them less. Although, it will be interesting to se what people with money do when their air conditioner breaks and the AC mechanic is out due to heat stroke.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- mindslight 5y ago
  Turn up their second AC system, pay a different AC technician more to travel further, go into their furnished basement, hang out in their running car, travel to a friend's spacious house, pay someone else to keep up their daily necessities while they fix the system themselves, or it won't have broken due to having better maintenance to begin with. No doubt there will be some schadenfreude. But there is a reason these things affect the poor harder.
  - mywittyname 5y ago
    Money doesn't solve all your problems, but it sure does solve a lot of them.
  - bamboozled 5y ago
    But in a way, everything is a little bit connected, if things start to collapse, it will be harder to be rich and comfortable. Who grows your food etc etc?
    - mindslight 5y ago
      People generally operate on relative (social) position rather than absolute condition. If the world is going down, it's better to remain ahead of the herd while it does so. I'm not saying this is in any way right, but rather it's what will happen just like Covid. There's also a coordination problem - if an individual rich person decides to slow down climate collapse (and many of them are, albeit possibly ineffectually), they're making their current life worse while not appreciably heading off the disaster.
lostlogin 5y ago
> unfortunately, it will disproportionally affect the poorest/most vulnerable people. There isn’t much that is bad that this doesn’t hold true for.

x14km2d 5y ago

should we even make it to the next decade. So far, this seems to look rather complicated.

FFRefresh 5y ago
Your comment sounds like you are predicting a mass human extinction, or close to it? I personally think that's incredibly far off base, but if you are confident in your prediction for mass doom, I recommend throwing some money into prediction markets around it. It could be a great way to calibrate your model of reality (and potentially make money if you are right!).
- vkou 5y ago
  If you're betting on collapse, and you are right, you aren't going to be around to collect. If you're betting against collapse, and you are wrong, you aren't going to be around to pay up.
  - FFRefresh 5y ago
    A few variations in line with that: If you're betting on near-total collapse, and you are right (and you survive from living in the developed world), you will be around to collect If you're betting on collapse, and you are wrong, you will be around to pay up If you bet against collapse, and you are right, you will be around to collect It should also be said that with prediction markets, you don't have to wait until the event happens before selling your position.
  - yissp 5y ago
    Like Pascal's wager

hitpointdrew 5y ago

The data suggests there is a slight down trend in heat related deaths since 1999. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-related-deaths https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica... I doubt heat related deaths will be a large factor in the next decade. More people than ever have access to AC and clean water.

mbgerring 5y ago
Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. Also, I feel like this should go without saying but the climate has changed perceptibly since 1999 and will continue to get warmer for the foreseeable future, so relying on past trend lines like this is a mistake.
- ryanobjc 5y ago
  I think the go comment is kinda of like the infamous slash dot review of the iPod: “I don’t think heat deaths will be a thing in the next decade” - uh huh
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  > Take a look at what happened earlier in the summer in Portland. Extreme heat events are becoming more common in places where homes often don’t have air conditioning. This is true, but even in Portland, which is regarded as having one of the lowest rates of air conditioning in the nation, three out of four homes have it. We experienced around 100 deaths statewide (getting an exact count eludes me, as recently as three days ago NPR put it at 83, though earlier reports put it over 100) due to the heat wave. As long as we can keep the power going, Portland can probably find practical ways to keep the death toll very low in future heat waves. I'm guessing we will get an opportunity to test that.
throwanem 5y ago
My local power utility has ramped up its (thus far) voluntary load shedding campaign this year with rebates for usage reductions during high-demand periods (including today!), and is also pushing "smart" thermostats pretty hard, also in exchange for a minor rebate. They're "smart" in that they allow the utility to remotely shut down your AC for a 75% or 50% duty cycle, which you are not allowed to override. Don't count on AC saving all that many lives as the decade wears on.

bamboozled 5y ago

I guess that’s why nothing is done about climate change in a hurry. We’re told it will affect us all, but obviously, some people believe that with money it will affect them less. Although, it will be interesting to se what people with money do when their air conditioner breaks and the AC mechanic is out due to heat stroke.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
mindslight 5y ago
Turn up their second AC system, pay a different AC technician more to travel further, go into their furnished basement, hang out in their running car, travel to a friend's spacious house, pay someone else to keep up their daily necessities while they fix the system themselves, or it won't have broken due to having better maintenance to begin with. No doubt there will be some schadenfreude. But there is a reason these things affect the poor harder.
- mywittyname 5y ago
  Money doesn't solve all your problems, but it sure does solve a lot of them.
- bamboozled 5y ago
  But in a way, everything is a little bit connected, if things start to collapse, it will be harder to be rich and comfortable. Who grows your food etc etc?
  - mindslight 5y ago
    People generally operate on relative (social) position rather than absolute condition. If the world is going down, it's better to remain ahead of the herd while it does so. I'm not saying this is in any way right, but rather it's what will happen just like Covid. There's also a coordination problem - if an individual rich person decides to slow down climate collapse (and many of them are, albeit possibly ineffectually), they're making their current life worse while not appreciably heading off the disaster.

lostlogin 5y ago

> unfortunately, it will disproportionally affect the poorest/most vulnerable people. There isn’t much that is bad that this doesn’t hold true for.