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For those who are more domain knowledgeable in the logistics space, when can we expect these sporadic shortages to end? I know that there's a supply chain whip

For those who are more domain knowledgeable in the logistics space, when can we expect these sporadic shortages to end? I know that there's a supply chain whipsaw effect. Where a disruption in one component leads to a delayed downstream distortion somewhere else. But at what point can we expect these ghosts lurking in the system to finally work themselves out.

AlecSchueler 5y ago
What caused the initial issue, the Suez fiasco?
- Kluny 5y ago
  Well no, covid. It's still fallout from that. Factories in the cheap-labour countries like Taiwan closed down due to covid, and oftentimes management made conservative bets about how long covid would continue, so they didn't ramp up production or efficiency (or couldn't).
- icegreentea2 5y ago
  The pandemic in general? Trans-pacific shipping got completely blown up (on both ends) multiple times since Feb/March 2019. Already while COVID was largely confined to China, supply problems were beginning to emerge, starting with China factories shutting down and internal networks (trucking) being disrupted by the pandemic and lockdowns. Everything just compounded from there. I remember reading daily posts on a supply chain subreddit talking about shipping indexes dropping daily in March. Like honestly, it's pretty amazing that shortages aren't worse. Perhaps a testament to how much of our trade is in non-critical goods.
DavidPeiffer 5y ago
I'm an industrial engineer, more manufacturing focused than specifically logistics. From what I've seen and heard from talking with other IE's at other companies, we're probably looking at a couple years before things are "normal" again, and they'll continue to be a mess in a way that's transparent to the consumer longer than that. As long as there are areas of the world with significant trade that are being hit hard by COVID there will be disruptions. In the last few weeks, Southeast Asia has had reduced port capacity due to a COVID surge. Heck, even in US production it's tough to get production and warehouse employees right now! Weird times for sure, even if you're paying a strong wage. If you're curious about general global shipping, in 2017 Flexport put out a great podcast about cargo ships. I really wish they would do an additional podcast about the current happenings, though their blog posts are quite interesting. https://www.flexport.com/blog/alexis-madrigal-containers-podcast/ https://www.flexport.com/blog/alexis-madrigal-containers-pod... Odd Lots (a Bloomberg podcast) also had a great interview from earlier this month. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-02/gene-seroka-on-the-logistical-logjam-at-the-port-of-la https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-02/gene-sero...

AlecSchueler 5y ago

What caused the initial issue, the Suez fiasco?

Kluny 5y ago
Well no, covid. It's still fallout from that. Factories in the cheap-labour countries like Taiwan closed down due to covid, and oftentimes management made conservative bets about how long covid would continue, so they didn't ramp up production or efficiency (or couldn't).
icegreentea2 5y ago
The pandemic in general? Trans-pacific shipping got completely blown up (on both ends) multiple times since Feb/March 2019. Already while COVID was largely confined to China, supply problems were beginning to emerge, starting with China factories shutting down and internal networks (trucking) being disrupted by the pandemic and lockdowns. Everything just compounded from there. I remember reading daily posts on a supply chain subreddit talking about shipping indexes dropping daily in March. Like honestly, it's pretty amazing that shortages aren't worse. Perhaps a testament to how much of our trade is in non-critical goods.

DavidPeiffer 5y ago

I'm an industrial engineer, more manufacturing focused than specifically logistics. From what I've seen and heard from talking with other IE's at other companies, we're probably looking at a couple years before things are "normal" again, and they'll continue to be a mess in a way that's transparent to the consumer longer than that. As long as there are areas of the world with significant trade that are being hit hard by COVID there will be disruptions. In the last few weeks, Southeast Asia has had reduced port capacity due to a COVID surge. Heck, even in US production it's tough to get production and warehouse employees right now! Weird times for sure, even if you're paying a strong wage. If you're curious about general global shipping, in 2017 Flexport put out a great podcast about cargo ships. I really wish they would do an additional podcast about the current happenings, though their blog posts are quite interesting. https://www.flexport.com/blog/alexis-madrigal-containers-podcast/ https://www.flexport.com/blog/alexis-madrigal-containers-pod... Odd Lots (a Bloomberg podcast) also had a great interview from earlier this month. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-02/gene-seroka-on-the-logistical-logjam-at-the-port-of-la https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-02/gene-sero...