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This is why making vaccines virtually compulsory (eg. France) is a horrible idea. They should be 100% optional. It's very far from obvious taking one now is a g
by nootropicat 5y ago
This is why making vaccines virtually compulsory (eg. France) is a horrible idea. They should be 100% optional. It's very far from obvious taking one now is a good idea. It helps with delta, but new variants that evolve in response to pro-ADE selective pressure may be extremely dangerous to the vaccinated.
Infected vaccinated people are variant factories, because they have same [1] [2] viral loads as unvaccinated, but less severe symptoms (for the delta strain) - meaning infected unvaccinated are much more likely to self-isolate fast, while vaccinated may not even know they have covid. We already know current vaccines are borderline worthless [3] in preventing delta infections - Pfizer is only 39% effective.
In addition to that, selective pressure for new variants with more severe ADE doesn't exist inside people without antibodies because newly mutated strain has no competitive advantage. This means a new variant with severe ADE is almost certainly going to originate from a vaccinated person.
Immunity from a past infection is more selective [4] which is very good as far as ADE risk is concerned, so the main risk is from current vaccines.
Last but not least, policies that encourage 100% vaccinated environments (covid passes) create a perfect environment for a new ADE variant to preferentially spread - also because people there feel safe so they don't care about masks and social distancing.
Trading a negligible risk from current covid strains for a potential risk of a very lethal ADE variant (eg. 5% for the vaccinated in the otherwise healthy 30-40 range) in the future should be an individual decision. Even from a population survival perspective it's better to have a heterogeneous population.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm7031e2_w https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm?s_cid=mm...
"there was no significant difference between the Ct values of samples collected from breakthrough cases and the other cases. This might mean that the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 is also similar."
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1
"Data from COVID-19 tests in the United States, the United Kingdom and Singapore are showing that vaccinated people who become infected with Delta SARS-CoV-2 can carry as much virus in their nose as do unvaccinated people."
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-v...
[4] https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/06/22/how-immunity-generated-from-covid-19-vaccines-differs-from-an-infection/ https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/06/22/how-immunity-genera...
- willmadden 5y agoWell, at least one non-big pharma spokesperson read this before it was flagged! Well put. I agree 100% with everything you wrote.