3 ms·

The article you include is from 2015. It only shows that a leaky vaccine leads to a higher survival rate of the host (vs no vaccine). It does not show that leak

The article you include is from 2015. It only shows that a leaky vaccine leads to a higher survival rate of the host (vs no vaccine). It does not show that leaky vaccines select for more virulent strains. >Nor am I saying people shouldn't get vaccinated. Viral load is a common proxy for virulence. Your comments all read as casting doubt on vaccination. It's proving to be incredibly effective at reducing death and severe disease. >But it seems even with widespread vaccination, there may be enough transmission to generate new mutations (Isreal [sic] is 80% vaccinated and they are seeing another wave including breakthroughs). You provide no data to support this assumption. What is clear is that there will definitely be more transmission without vaccines. >What I am saying is that the vaccines should be updated to prevent the breakthrough infections They are being updated rapidly. That is a great advantage of mRNA technology.

giantg2 5y ago
"Viral load is a common proxy for virulence." The measure is only relevant if the other variables don't change. If we want to measure virulence compared to other strains, then you have to do that using all unvaccinated people, or all vaccinated people. Otherwise, the numbers don't matter when changing multiple variables. "It's proving to be incredibly effective at reducing death and severe disease." Which is good, but not very relevant to the discussion of genesis of new strains. "They are being updated rapidly. That is a great advantage of mRNA technology." Do you have any info on this? There does not seem to be any trials that I have heard of. Plus, the CDC/FDA have not yet recommended boosters for most people, let alone a different formulation. "But it seems even with widespread vaccination, there may be enough transmission to generate new mutations (Isreal [sic] is 80% vaccinated and they are seeing another wave including breakthroughs)." "You provide no data to support this assumption." https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-vaccine-defiant-israeli-mutation-wouldnt-be-surprising-former-virus-czar/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-vaccine-defiant-israeli-muta...
- jasonlaramburu 5y ago
  The Times of Israel article is still just conjecture. The only data is a quote from their ex-virus Czar saying selective pressure ‘could’ lead to the emergence of a vaccine resistant variant. We know conclusively that large unvaccinated populations do lead to the emergence of more virulent strains. We also know that mass vaccination reduces mortality significantly so it’s the best option available today. An updated mRNA booster would undoubtedly be a good thing and I suspect it will come in the next year.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    "We know conclusively that large unvaccinated populations do lead to the emergence of more virulent strains." Then why were the experts saying that virulence should go down over time at the beginning of the pandemic? It seems that either side would just be conjecture.
    - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
      I know Elon Musk tweeted that out early in the pandemic but I don’t recall medical experts specifically making that claim. If some did, they were clearly wrong.
      - giantg2 5y ago
        Ah, my wording was off. Some said it was a possiblity, not that it should.

giantg2 5y ago

"Viral load is a common proxy for virulence." The measure is only relevant if the other variables don't change. If we want to measure virulence compared to other strains, then you have to do that using all unvaccinated people, or all vaccinated people. Otherwise, the numbers don't matter when changing multiple variables. "It's proving to be incredibly effective at reducing death and severe disease." Which is good, but not very relevant to the discussion of genesis of new strains. "They are being updated rapidly. That is a great advantage of mRNA technology." Do you have any info on this? There does not seem to be any trials that I have heard of. Plus, the CDC/FDA have not yet recommended boosters for most people, let alone a different formulation. "But it seems even with widespread vaccination, there may be enough transmission to generate new mutations (Isreal [sic] is 80% vaccinated and they are seeing another wave including breakthroughs)." "You provide no data to support this assumption." https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-vaccine-defiant-israeli-mutation-wouldnt-be-surprising-former-virus-czar/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-vaccine-defiant-israeli-muta...

jasonlaramburu 5y ago
The Times of Israel article is still just conjecture. The only data is a quote from their ex-virus Czar saying selective pressure ‘could’ lead to the emergence of a vaccine resistant variant. We know conclusively that large unvaccinated populations do lead to the emergence of more virulent strains. We also know that mass vaccination reduces mortality significantly so it’s the best option available today. An updated mRNA booster would undoubtedly be a good thing and I suspect it will come in the next year.
- giantg2 5y ago
  "We know conclusively that large unvaccinated populations do lead to the emergence of more virulent strains." Then why were the experts saying that virulence should go down over time at the beginning of the pandemic? It seems that either side would just be conjecture.
  - jasonlaramburu 5y ago
    I know Elon Musk tweeted that out early in the pandemic but I don’t recall medical experts specifically making that claim. If some did, they were clearly wrong.
    - giantg2 5y ago
      Ah, my wording was off. Some said it was a possiblity, not that it should.