6 ms·

I think removing embargos would help more than a volatile cryptocurrency.

by lefrenchy 5y ago

mindcandy 5y ago
Yes. But, which of those two options is actually happening?
- lefrenchy 5y ago
  Touché
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    A volatile currency with direct transaction fees ranging from $0.05-60 [edited per FreeRadical - thanks!] and indirect transaction fees of roughly $90 (socialized block reward). Whose value dropped 50% in a month then went up 50% in a month (which of course still leaves it 25% below its near-term highs). I don't think even the Cuban Peso performs like that. Think about both of those in terms of the average salary of a Cuban national. How about the minimum wage? $0.44 per hour. [edit, and while I'm in here] And why did it drop 50% in a month? Because the worlds 25th largest automaker decided it was a bad medium of exchange for buying electric cars. Perhaps unsurprisingly in Venezuela, they decided to go the other way, dollarizing. They moved 66% of all transactions to the USD, forcing the Maduro government's hand, and leading to their major banks offering USD deposit accounts. [1] If anything they need USDC not BTC. This is just gambling in a regulatory and legal void. The Mad Max of finance. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/venezuela-plans-to-expand-use-of-foreign-currency-bank-accounts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/venezuela...
    - FreeRadical 5y ago
      Direct transaction fees have been $0.05-0.2 for a long while now, mostly being below $0.1 See: https://mempool.space/ https://mempool.space/
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - tenuousemphasis 5y ago
      Indirect transaction fees are a really pointless statistic.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - wesleywt 5y ago
      Bitcoin was a saviour for many ordingary folk in Venezuela during the hyperinflation crisis. It worked as intended. https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelans-try-to-beat-hyperinflation-with-cryptocurrency-revolution/a-57219083 https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelans-try-to-beat-hyperinflation... Why would a country embargoed by the USA use USD?
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        Your link doesn't mean much, as after all 66% of all transactions in Venezuela are USD denominated now per my link. The people of Venezuela had the choice: BTC or USD. They spoke, and they said USD. Likely only the wealthy laundering money, probably connected to the Maduro government are playing BTC. Only certain entities and individuals connected to the Maduro government are under sanctions, not everyone in Venezuela - which is why USD remittances are possible in the first place. Folks are using USD because Bitcoin is wildly inappropriate for use as a currency. [edit] Consider that at the time that article was written the average BTC transaction fee with multiple months minimum wage for the average Venezeulan.
      - notahacker 5y ago
        Because Venezuelans have been buying and selling things locally in black market dollars for decades, and even if they want to hold their dollars in offshore accounts, the US isn't interested in stopping them unless they're a regime insider (quite the opposite actually) As for Maduro, he's just trying to stop capital flight.
      - lottin 5y ago
        > Bitcoin was a saviour for many ordingary folk in Venezuela during the hyperinflation crisis. During a hyperinflation crisis everything that isn't money appreciates rapidly by definition. This means the often touted usefulness of bitcoin as "inflation hedge" is rather meaningless, because literally any asset that isn't money is an "inflation hedge". The shoes that I'm wearing right now are an "inflation hedge" just as good as bitcoin. In fact they're a better inflation hedge than bitcoin because their price is more predictable.
    - jmstfv 5y ago
      > A volatile currency with direct transaction fees ranging from $0.05-60 [edited per FreeRadical - thanks!] You don't need to transact on-chain (i.e. settlement layer). There's a lightning network, where transactions are instantaneous, and fees are a few satoshis. It's amusing how most Bitcoin critics focus on on-chain fees and pretend that lightning doesn't exist. > And why did it drop 50% in a month? Because the worlds 25th largest automaker decided it was a bad medium of exchange for buying electric cars. That wasn't the main reason. It was the China FUD and the lack of Grayscale's neutral arbitrage, which took out the biggest buyer off of the market.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        > You don't need to transact on-chain (i.e. settlement layer). You can use a lightning network, where transactions are instantaneous, and fees are a few satoshis. Sure, however LN is not sufficient because it requires an on-chain transaction to open a channel. To open a channel for everyone on earth would cost up to a third of a trillion dollars and take over 75 years, plus or minus deaths and births. Like getting a phone line in the Soviet Union. Further, complexity of routing is quadratic and will quickly exceed our patience. > It's amusing how most Bitcoin critics focus on on-chain fees and pretend that lightning doesn't exist. Well, that's because the underlying that LN is strapped to is so incredibly inefficient LN is a rounding error at the limit.
        copirate 5y ago
        > To open a channel for everyone on earth would cost up to a third of a trillion dollars and take over 75 years Not with the upcoming[1] "channel factories"[2]. [1] http://anyprevout.xyz/ http://anyprevout.xyz/ [2] https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/67158/what-are-channel-factories-and-how-do-they-work https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/67158/what-are-c...
        arcticbull 5y ago
        By how much do you think it would reduce the L1 load? That article suggests if you can get 10 people together it would reduce the load to 1/10, so still almost a decade. And that's iff you happen to find 10 people who fit the specific shape exactly. That's still wildly unacceptable if true, and also unbelievably unlikely. LN has always been a "but wait! we've got a solution just around the corner - please don't give up!" feature - but there's nothing around the corner. There never has been. Not to mention it does nothing to address the quadratic routing criticism.
    - CryptoPunk 5y ago
      They could also use a decentralized stablecoin that doesn't rely on fiat backing, like RAI, if they fear potential regulatory crackdowns on USD-backed stablecoin use in their country. Though so far US government authorities have been supportive of USD-based stablecoin use by people living under repressive anti-US governments, even going as far as facilitating transfers of USDC, via Ethereum, to medical and humanitarian groups in Venezuela: https://www.coindesk.com/circle-usdc-venezuela-airtm https://www.coindesk.com/circle-usdc-venezuela-airtm
- IfOnlyYouKnew 5y ago
  Neither…
hypnotist 5y ago
I will just leave this here: https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1415489923927343105 https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1415489923927343105
- puchatek 5y ago
  Good to know, thanks.
- lefrenchy 5y ago
  Not sure how some random person on twitter saying "if you think the embargo is bad you don't understand Cuban reality" as a side note is supposed to nullify years of history? The embargo is absolutely part of the context, you can't just wave away an economic boot on Cuba's neck?
  - hypnotist 5y ago
    well, he is actually Cuban who lives in US and follows the situation. I am willing to believe his take much more than random dudes from CA. Here's some of his writings on Cuba. https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/the-cuban-tank-man-will-be-an-influencer https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/the-cuban-tank-man-will-be-...
    - lefrenchy 5y ago
      Look the reality is it doesn’t matter what any of us think about the situation on the ground in Cuba. We do not live in Cuba and therefore cannot understand their lived experiences (neither does a Cuban living in Miami who likely has an ideologically warped perception just as much as any of us). The only thing we as Americans can control is to end an economically devastating embargo. At least then American foreign policy can be completely extracted from any of these questions. It objectively has economic consequences on Cuba, and for this person to just hand wave that away makes me question their integrity.
Mengkudulangsat 5y ago
That embargo is always such a mystery to me. Why on earth is it still in place in 2021? Is it because no US politician want to submit a motion for it to be repealed? Or is there a powerful anti-Cuba lobby keeping it there? So much misery can be lifted with little effort by so few, yet here we are.
- pjc50 5y ago
  > is there a powerful anti-Cuba lobby keeping it there? Yes. Basically few Americans care either way about Cuba, except for the descendants of those who fled the revolution, who are absolutely furious about it. That has a big effect in Florida.
- input_sh 5y ago
  Two months ago the UN voted on ending the embargo on Cuba (though they've been doing that since 1992). 184 countries voted to end the embargo, 3 abstained from voting, and only two countries voted against: US and Israel. https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094612 https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094612
- enaaem 5y ago
  Cuba can still trade with the rest of the world like the EU, Russia, China and Canada.
  - Mengkudulangsat 5y ago
    Well of course, but that's not a good reason to prevent them from trading with the US.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    The "gravity model of trade" is still approximately true which TL;DR states that it is easiest to trade the most with your largest neighbours. For Cuba, that means Florida (and after that, Mexico and Central American countries). Yes Cuba _can_ trade with more distant partners, but it is less preferable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Gravity_theory_of_trade.html https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Gravity_t...

I think removing embargos would help more than a volatile cryptocurrency.

mindcandy 5y ago

Yes. But, which of those two options is actually happening?

lefrenchy 5y ago
Touché
- arcticbull 5y ago
  A volatile currency with direct transaction fees ranging from $0.05-60 [edited per FreeRadical - thanks!] and indirect transaction fees of roughly $90 (socialized block reward). Whose value dropped 50% in a month then went up 50% in a month (which of course still leaves it 25% below its near-term highs). I don't think even the Cuban Peso performs like that. Think about both of those in terms of the average salary of a Cuban national. How about the minimum wage? $0.44 per hour. [edit, and while I'm in here] And why did it drop 50% in a month? Because the worlds 25th largest automaker decided it was a bad medium of exchange for buying electric cars. Perhaps unsurprisingly in Venezuela, they decided to go the other way, dollarizing. They moved 66% of all transactions to the USD, forcing the Maduro government's hand, and leading to their major banks offering USD deposit accounts. [1] If anything they need USDC not BTC. This is just gambling in a regulatory and legal void. The Mad Max of finance. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/venezuela-plans-to-expand-use-of-foreign-currency-bank-accounts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/venezuela...
  - FreeRadical 5y ago
    Direct transaction fees have been $0.05-0.2 for a long while now, mostly being below $0.1 See: https://mempool.space/ https://mempool.space/
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - tenuousemphasis 5y ago
    Indirect transaction fees are a really pointless statistic.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - wesleywt 5y ago
    Bitcoin was a saviour for many ordingary folk in Venezuela during the hyperinflation crisis. It worked as intended. https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelans-try-to-beat-hyperinflation-with-cryptocurrency-revolution/a-57219083 https://www.dw.com/en/venezuelans-try-to-beat-hyperinflation... Why would a country embargoed by the USA use USD?
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      Your link doesn't mean much, as after all 66% of all transactions in Venezuela are USD denominated now per my link. The people of Venezuela had the choice: BTC or USD. They spoke, and they said USD. Likely only the wealthy laundering money, probably connected to the Maduro government are playing BTC. Only certain entities and individuals connected to the Maduro government are under sanctions, not everyone in Venezuela - which is why USD remittances are possible in the first place. Folks are using USD because Bitcoin is wildly inappropriate for use as a currency. [edit] Consider that at the time that article was written the average BTC transaction fee with multiple months minimum wage for the average Venezeulan.
    - notahacker 5y ago
      Because Venezuelans have been buying and selling things locally in black market dollars for decades, and even if they want to hold their dollars in offshore accounts, the US isn't interested in stopping them unless they're a regime insider (quite the opposite actually) As for Maduro, he's just trying to stop capital flight.
    - lottin 5y ago
      > Bitcoin was a saviour for many ordingary folk in Venezuela during the hyperinflation crisis. During a hyperinflation crisis everything that isn't money appreciates rapidly by definition. This means the often touted usefulness of bitcoin as "inflation hedge" is rather meaningless, because literally any asset that isn't money is an "inflation hedge". The shoes that I'm wearing right now are an "inflation hedge" just as good as bitcoin. In fact they're a better inflation hedge than bitcoin because their price is more predictable.
  - jmstfv 5y ago
    > A volatile currency with direct transaction fees ranging from $0.05-60 [edited per FreeRadical - thanks!] You don't need to transact on-chain (i.e. settlement layer). There's a lightning network, where transactions are instantaneous, and fees are a few satoshis. It's amusing how most Bitcoin critics focus on on-chain fees and pretend that lightning doesn't exist. > And why did it drop 50% in a month? Because the worlds 25th largest automaker decided it was a bad medium of exchange for buying electric cars. That wasn't the main reason. It was the China FUD and the lack of Grayscale's neutral arbitrage, which took out the biggest buyer off of the market.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      > You don't need to transact on-chain (i.e. settlement layer). You can use a lightning network, where transactions are instantaneous, and fees are a few satoshis. Sure, however LN is not sufficient because it requires an on-chain transaction to open a channel. To open a channel for everyone on earth would cost up to a third of a trillion dollars and take over 75 years, plus or minus deaths and births. Like getting a phone line in the Soviet Union. Further, complexity of routing is quadratic and will quickly exceed our patience. > It's amusing how most Bitcoin critics focus on on-chain fees and pretend that lightning doesn't exist. Well, that's because the underlying that LN is strapped to is so incredibly inefficient LN is a rounding error at the limit.
      - copirate 5y ago
        > To open a channel for everyone on earth would cost up to a third of a trillion dollars and take over 75 years Not with the upcoming[1] "channel factories"[2]. [1] http://anyprevout.xyz/ http://anyprevout.xyz/ [2] https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/67158/what-are-channel-factories-and-how-do-they-work https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/67158/what-are-c...
        arcticbull 5y ago
        By how much do you think it would reduce the L1 load? That article suggests if you can get 10 people together it would reduce the load to 1/10, so still almost a decade. And that's iff you happen to find 10 people who fit the specific shape exactly. That's still wildly unacceptable if true, and also unbelievably unlikely. LN has always been a "but wait! we've got a solution just around the corner - please don't give up!" feature - but there's nothing around the corner. There never has been. Not to mention it does nothing to address the quadratic routing criticism.
  - CryptoPunk 5y ago
    They could also use a decentralized stablecoin that doesn't rely on fiat backing, like RAI, if they fear potential regulatory crackdowns on USD-backed stablecoin use in their country. Though so far US government authorities have been supportive of USD-based stablecoin use by people living under repressive anti-US governments, even going as far as facilitating transfers of USDC, via Ethereum, to medical and humanitarian groups in Venezuela: https://www.coindesk.com/circle-usdc-venezuela-airtm https://www.coindesk.com/circle-usdc-venezuela-airtm
IfOnlyYouKnew 5y ago
Neither…

hypnotist 5y ago

I will just leave this here: https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1415489923927343105 https://twitter.com/antoniogm/status/1415489923927343105

puchatek 5y ago
Good to know, thanks.
lefrenchy 5y ago
Not sure how some random person on twitter saying "if you think the embargo is bad you don't understand Cuban reality" as a side note is supposed to nullify years of history? The embargo is absolutely part of the context, you can't just wave away an economic boot on Cuba's neck?
- hypnotist 5y ago
  well, he is actually Cuban who lives in US and follows the situation. I am willing to believe his take much more than random dudes from CA. Here's some of his writings on Cuba. https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/the-cuban-tank-man-will-be-an-influencer https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/the-cuban-tank-man-will-be-...
  - lefrenchy 5y ago
    Look the reality is it doesn’t matter what any of us think about the situation on the ground in Cuba. We do not live in Cuba and therefore cannot understand their lived experiences (neither does a Cuban living in Miami who likely has an ideologically warped perception just as much as any of us). The only thing we as Americans can control is to end an economically devastating embargo. At least then American foreign policy can be completely extracted from any of these questions. It objectively has economic consequences on Cuba, and for this person to just hand wave that away makes me question their integrity.

Mengkudulangsat 5y ago

That embargo is always such a mystery to me. Why on earth is it still in place in 2021? Is it because no US politician want to submit a motion for it to be repealed? Or is there a powerful anti-Cuba lobby keeping it there? So much misery can be lifted with little effort by so few, yet here we are.

pjc50 5y ago
> is there a powerful anti-Cuba lobby keeping it there? Yes. Basically few Americans care either way about Cuba, except for the descendants of those who fled the revolution, who are absolutely furious about it. That has a big effect in Florida.
input_sh 5y ago
Two months ago the UN voted on ending the embargo on Cuba (though they've been doing that since 1992). 184 countries voted to end the embargo, 3 abstained from voting, and only two countries voted against: US and Israel. https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094612 https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094612
enaaem 5y ago
Cuba can still trade with the rest of the world like the EU, Russia, China and Canada.
- Mengkudulangsat 5y ago
  Well of course, but that's not a good reason to prevent them from trading with the US.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  The "gravity model of trade" is still approximately true which TL;DR states that it is easiest to trade the most with your largest neighbours. For Cuba, that means Florida (and after that, Mexico and Central American countries). Yes Cuba _can_ trade with more distant partners, but it is less preferable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Gravity_theory_of_trade.html https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Gravity_t...