4 ms·

You're going to get downvoted into oblivion but as a PhD, who has also worked in manufacturing, I have a number of reasons to remain skeptical about the vaccine

You're going to get downvoted into oblivion but as a PhD, who has also worked in manufacturing, I have a number of reasons to remain skeptical about the vaccines. I won't repeat them here because everyone has pretty much made up their mind one way or the other. For what it's worth, I did end up getting vaccinated recently (J&J, not mRNA-based) after quite a few unpleasant conversations with my spouse that I was endangering our children on the presumption that unvaccinated people more easily spread the virus. This assertion has been thrown into doubt, however, by the CDC's Barnstable study [1] suggesting viral numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are similar (among people tested). Consequently, I'm just staying home these days. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

ajross 5y ago
> This assertion has been thrown into doubt, however, by the CDC's Barnstable study [1] suggesting viral numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are similar I'm a little horrified that you cite your academic credentials and then misread that conclusion so badly. Viral load and infectiousness are equivalent between vaccinated and unvaccinated INFECTED PEOPLE in that study, not overall. The vaccinated are, obviously, much less likely to get sick in the first place. Your wife was right and you were wrong, basically.
- effie 5y ago
  Yes much less likely sick, but that by itself does not mean much less likely getting infected. The recent data from U.S. and Israel show that vaccinated people get infected easily too.
  - ajross 5y ago
    That's just wrong. Why do people keep claiming this? Consensus immunity for Pfizer against delta is still in the 60-80% range, which while less than the 95% measured against earlier variants is vastly higher than the unvaccinated. (Though to be fair this is hard to measure against the confounding background that the vaccinated tend to be better at other mitigation strategies too.) Even the Israel data you cite, which is an outlier, measured 39% effectiveness, which is STILL twice as good as being unvaccinated.
    - effie 5y ago
      Those 80% and higher efficacies are against symptomatic COVID and hospitalization. Not against getting infected and getting infectious. This efficacy was high initially, but is reported to be decreasing, and currently at 40% for Pfizer [1]: [1] https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-de...
      - ajross 5y ago
        That study is still an outlier. But I repeat, because you don't seem to understand the point: even if it's that low, and even if transmissibility is completely unaffected, it means that an unvaccinated person will spread TWICE AS MANY CASES as a vaccinated one. That's the difference between a pandemic and a contained endemic disease right there. Get. Your. Vaccine.
        effie 5y ago
        40% efficacy for preventing spreading is quite poor. There are other strategies of similar or better efficacy for preventing spreading like limiting contact with people, using masks, vitamin D, being on ivermectin. If you were a marketing department of a pharma company selling vaccines for preventing spreading, you would not be very convincing.
effie 5y ago
I'm sorry your family had to go through that. Your wife meant well, but I think overreacted and wasn't very rational. Young children are the most resilient group against COVID, even without vaccination. Most of them don't even have symptoms.

ajross 5y ago

> This assertion has been thrown into doubt, however, by the CDC's Barnstable study [1] suggesting viral numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are similar I'm a little horrified that you cite your academic credentials and then misread that conclusion so badly. Viral load and infectiousness are equivalent between vaccinated and unvaccinated INFECTED PEOPLE in that study, not overall. The vaccinated are, obviously, much less likely to get sick in the first place. Your wife was right and you were wrong, basically.

effie 5y ago
Yes much less likely sick, but that by itself does not mean much less likely getting infected. The recent data from U.S. and Israel show that vaccinated people get infected easily too.
- ajross 5y ago
  That's just wrong. Why do people keep claiming this? Consensus immunity for Pfizer against delta is still in the 60-80% range, which while less than the 95% measured against earlier variants is vastly higher than the unvaccinated. (Though to be fair this is hard to measure against the confounding background that the vaccinated tend to be better at other mitigation strategies too.) Even the Israel data you cite, which is an outlier, measured 39% effectiveness, which is STILL twice as good as being unvaccinated.
  - effie 5y ago
    Those 80% and higher efficacies are against symptomatic COVID and hospitalization. Not against getting infected and getting infectious. This efficacy was high initially, but is reported to be decreasing, and currently at 40% for Pfizer [1]: [1] https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-de...
    - ajross 5y ago
      That study is still an outlier. But I repeat, because you don't seem to understand the point: even if it's that low, and even if transmissibility is completely unaffected, it means that an unvaccinated person will spread TWICE AS MANY CASES as a vaccinated one. That's the difference between a pandemic and a contained endemic disease right there. Get. Your. Vaccine.
      - effie 5y ago
        40% efficacy for preventing spreading is quite poor. There are other strategies of similar or better efficacy for preventing spreading like limiting contact with people, using masks, vitamin D, being on ivermectin. If you were a marketing department of a pharma company selling vaccines for preventing spreading, you would not be very convincing.

effie 5y ago

I'm sorry your family had to go through that. Your wife meant well, but I think overreacted and wasn't very rational. Young children are the most resilient group against COVID, even without vaccination. Most of them don't even have symptoms.