5 ms·

What are long term side effects only time can and will tell.

by mrkramer 5y ago

munk-a 5y ago
The primary one is not being dead from COVID - which is indeed quite a serious side effect.
- kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 5y ago
  But that's also a side effect for the majority of people who contract COVID, no?
  - gregoryl 5y ago
    Disingenuous argument, no? Less people will die from the vaccines, by a very large margin.
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      No. The disingenuous argument is calling not dying a "side effect from the vaccine".
      - gregoryl 5y ago
        I'm confused as to what you are arguing. The concept is just an application of statistics. Less people will die from the broad application of the vaccine vs. not, so we choose to vaccinate.
        kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 5y ago
        OPs argument heavily suggested the only way to not die of COVID was to get the vaccine. Which is demonstrably false.
  - syntaxing 5y ago
    If you mean 50%+ as majority then yes. But a nonvaccinated death rate around 2-10% worldwide compared to 0.1% of the US vaccinated population getting covid to begin with, that’s a huge difference.
    - kzrdude 5y ago
      The case fatality rate has been quoted to be much lower than that - 2% in bad cases (health care system failure) and 0.5% in more well managed situations.
      - syntaxing 5y ago
        Would love to see the numbers of 0.5%. Even in the US and with vaccines rolled out, we just skimmed 2% [1] [1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
        kzrdude 5y ago
        Hm yeah ok, we should not look at case fatality rate when the true number of cases is so uncertain. I think it's more about what the actual risk of death is if you get covid, which is lower than this case fatality rate.
- mrkramer 5y ago
  For example BSE[0] is an infectious disease believed to be due to a misfolded protein, known as a prion. The time between infection and onset of symptoms is four to five years. So if you got "infected" by prion 4–5 years after you will notice first symptoms and then you will die within weeks to months. There is no treatment for this disease. In the context of mRNA vaccine if you feel good 1 month after getting the mRNA vaccine or if you feel okay after 1 year means nothing because biological processes are slow but when they kick in they hit hard. Edit: I gave the example with cows a human variant is Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and onset of symptoms can happen years to decades after exposure. Average life expectancy following the onset of symptoms is 13 months. [1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopathy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Jakob_disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Ja...
  - IAmGraydon 5y ago
    Such an utterly ridiculous argument. The processes that occur when vaccinated with an MRNA vaccine are very well understood. This is not something that they just started researching. You don’t understand it, but it’s a rather simple thing to the scientists who designed these vaccines. My suggestion to you - when you find yourself afraid of the dark, turn on a light. The genesis of your fear is just the knowledge you lack.
dcolkitt 5y ago
This isn’t true. With a large enough sample size almost all long-term effects become short-term. Very few long-term diseases are long-term because of a deterministic countdown. Rather, they’re the result of a small but long-lived cumulative probability. The cancer that takes twenty years to show up is caused by the persistent 0.17% chance of a malignant tumor every month. But the upshot is that if you start with a sample size of 100,000 people, the cancer risk will be glaringly obvious in the first month.
- Overton-Window 5y ago
  This is why we immediately knew Asbestos was cancerous... oh wait.
  - dboreham 5y ago
    a) we didn't know that because people smoked and had coal fires in their houses so everyone had cancer, and b) we did know but BigCo conspired with government to cover up and deny.
- effie 5y ago
  No, long term means 5,10 years and it cannot become short term because it takes 5 years (from the start of vaccination) to observe effects in people vaccinated for 5 years and it takes 10 years to observe effects in people vaccinated for 10 years.

What are long term side effects only time can and will tell.

munk-a 5y ago

The primary one is not being dead from COVID - which is indeed quite a serious side effect.

kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 5y ago
But that's also a side effect for the majority of people who contract COVID, no?
- gregoryl 5y ago
  Disingenuous argument, no? Less people will die from the vaccines, by a very large margin.
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    No. The disingenuous argument is calling not dying a "side effect from the vaccine".
    - gregoryl 5y ago
      I'm confused as to what you are arguing. The concept is just an application of statistics. Less people will die from the broad application of the vaccine vs. not, so we choose to vaccinate.
      - kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 5y ago
        OPs argument heavily suggested the only way to not die of COVID was to get the vaccine. Which is demonstrably false.
- syntaxing 5y ago
  If you mean 50%+ as majority then yes. But a nonvaccinated death rate around 2-10% worldwide compared to 0.1% of the US vaccinated population getting covid to begin with, that’s a huge difference.
  - kzrdude 5y ago
    The case fatality rate has been quoted to be much lower than that - 2% in bad cases (health care system failure) and 0.5% in more well managed situations.
    - syntaxing 5y ago
      Would love to see the numbers of 0.5%. Even in the US and with vaccines rolled out, we just skimmed 2% [1] [1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
      - kzrdude 5y ago
        Hm yeah ok, we should not look at case fatality rate when the true number of cases is so uncertain. I think it's more about what the actual risk of death is if you get covid, which is lower than this case fatality rate.
mrkramer 5y ago
For example BSE[0] is an infectious disease believed to be due to a misfolded protein, known as a prion. The time between infection and onset of symptoms is four to five years. So if you got "infected" by prion 4–5 years after you will notice first symptoms and then you will die within weeks to months. There is no treatment for this disease. In the context of mRNA vaccine if you feel good 1 month after getting the mRNA vaccine or if you feel okay after 1 year means nothing because biological processes are slow but when they kick in they hit hard. Edit: I gave the example with cows a human variant is Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and onset of symptoms can happen years to decades after exposure. Average life expectancy following the onset of symptoms is 13 months. [1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopathy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Jakob_disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Ja...
- IAmGraydon 5y ago
  Such an utterly ridiculous argument. The processes that occur when vaccinated with an MRNA vaccine are very well understood. This is not something that they just started researching. You don’t understand it, but it’s a rather simple thing to the scientists who designed these vaccines. My suggestion to you - when you find yourself afraid of the dark, turn on a light. The genesis of your fear is just the knowledge you lack.

dcolkitt 5y ago

This isn’t true. With a large enough sample size almost all long-term effects become short-term. Very few long-term diseases are long-term because of a deterministic countdown. Rather, they’re the result of a small but long-lived cumulative probability. The cancer that takes twenty years to show up is caused by the persistent 0.17% chance of a malignant tumor every month. But the upshot is that if you start with a sample size of 100,000 people, the cancer risk will be glaringly obvious in the first month.

Overton-Window 5y ago
This is why we immediately knew Asbestos was cancerous... oh wait.
- dboreham 5y ago
  a) we didn't know that because people smoked and had coal fires in their houses so everyone had cancer, and b) we did know but BigCo conspired with government to cover up and deny.
effie 5y ago
No, long term means 5,10 years and it cannot become short term because it takes 5 years (from the start of vaccination) to observe effects in people vaccinated for 5 years and it takes 10 years to observe effects in people vaccinated for 10 years.