5 ms·

According to https://www.bts.dot.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/docs/FFF_2017_Full_June2018revision.pdf https://www.bts.dot.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/docs/FFF_20

by kjksf 5y ago

According to https://www.bts.dot.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/docs/FFF_2017_Full_June2018revision.pdf https://www.bts.dot.gov/sites/bts.dot.gov/files/docs/FFF_201... 84% of freight by volume is under 500 miles. Do you dispute that? Tesla Semi will be 500 miles so current technology can address 84% of the market and by the time 84% of semis sold are electric, batteries will be cheaper and more energy dense, so trucks will go even further.

throw0101a 5y ago
> According to [link] 84% of freight by volume is under 500 miles. And by mass? A furniture store in (e.g.) Chicago will order a bunch of sofas; the resulting shipping container full of furniture won't weigh a lot, and will mostly be air. This is part of an existing logistical setup between the store, distributor, and manufacturer (which may be on the other side of the Pacific). Meanwhile, a 'random', ad hoc transaction causes some earth moving equipment to be either sold or rented, and so needs to be moved to the new owner / job site with-in a couple of days. Arranging for a train shipment (assuming it can even fit on a train) may take longer than just posting the job on a trucking board and having someone show up the next day: * https://www.youtube.com/user/smd5231/videos https://www.youtube.com/user/smd5231/videos Is shipping a Ferrari easier or harder on a train than a truck? * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-inPRBhonfY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-inPRBhonfY Perhaps we'll get to a more electric truck future, or perhaps an hybrid / range extender interim, but there are a number of cases where things don't work out, especially if you're moving at max load, with extra axles, on short notice. Shipping on rail is already quite cheap in many cases, and yet there's a sizeable industry for long-distance freight, at about US$ 200B per year: * https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/market-size/long-distance-freight-trucking-united-states/ https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/market-size/lo... That's about a quarter of the $800B trucking industry total: * https://www.trucking.org/news-insights https://www.trucking.org/news-insights If people though trains were cheaper, easier, and/or faster I would guess they'd be using them already—and probably are whenever they can.

by kjksf 5y ago

throw0101a 5y ago

> According to [link] 84% of freight by volume is under 500 miles. And by mass? A furniture store in (e.g.) Chicago will order a bunch of sofas; the resulting shipping container full of furniture won't weigh a lot, and will mostly be air. This is part of an existing logistical setup between the store, distributor, and manufacturer (which may be on the other side of the Pacific). Meanwhile, a 'random', ad hoc transaction causes some earth moving equipment to be either sold or rented, and so needs to be moved to the new owner / job site with-in a couple of days. Arranging for a train shipment (assuming it can even fit on a train) may take longer than just posting the job on a trucking board and having someone show up the next day: * https://www.youtube.com/user/smd5231/videos https://www.youtube.com/user/smd5231/videos Is shipping a Ferrari easier or harder on a train than a truck? * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-inPRBhonfY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-inPRBhonfY Perhaps we'll get to a more electric truck future, or perhaps an hybrid / range extender interim, but there are a number of cases where things don't work out, especially if you're moving at max load, with extra axles, on short notice. Shipping on rail is already quite cheap in many cases, and yet there's a sizeable industry for long-distance freight, at about US$ 200B per year: * https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/market-size/long-distance-freight-trucking-united-states/ https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/market-size/lo... That's about a quarter of the $800B trucking industry total: * https://www.trucking.org/news-insights https://www.trucking.org/news-insights If people though trains were cheaper, easier, and/or faster I would guess they'd be using them already—and probably are whenever they can.