5 ms·

Taking down Bin laden wasn't a waste of time, just staying there after he was dead was.

by Larrikin 5y ago

hindsightbias 5y ago
OBL left Afghanistan in 2001.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Taliban still has significant influence in Pakistan. If OBL wasn't killed back then, you can rest assured he'd be leading the charge today into retaking Afghanistan. Its better that OBL is dead. But the new wave of leaders of the Taliban are still stronger than expected. ---------- Hell, ISIL / Daesh has splintered off of Al Qaeda and the two occasional get into skirmishes with each other. The leadership was in fact fractured successfully. It may not be enough for a lasting peace, but I wouldn't say that its completely worthless.
  - iammisc 5y ago
    > still stronger than expected. They're only stronger than expected if you let the US media and US intelligence services set your expectations. If you had come to your own conclusion, you would have realized that the Taliban is one of the few entities actually able to hold Afghanistan and nothing the US did made it less potent in its ability. All we did was give them a twenty year break to amass more forces, more resources, and more training.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      > All we did was give them a twenty year break to amass more forces, more resources, and more training. They would have had more forces and resources if they were in control of the country for the last 20 years. In fact, that's why they're trying to take over the country again, to once again have control of the Opium / Poppy farms and start getting more money for their organization. Now the question is: is it worthwhile for the USA to hold onto those farm locations just so that the Taliban won't come into power? Probably not. But lets not be too hasty in our judgement here. The value in that land may be miniscule for the USA, but its of huge value to the Taliban.
      - rascul 5y ago
        I don't know the accuracy of the sources, but Wikipedia has the Taliban has almost doubling in size since 2001: 45,000 (2001 est.) 11,000 (2008 est.) 36,000 (2010 est.) 60,000 (2014 est.) 85,000 (2021 est.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban
        iammisc 5y ago
        This confirms my theory above that the most important resource is people, which the united states handed to the Taliban in droves by occupying the country for the last twenty years. The look of a Christian country occupying a Muslim one is an easy catalyst that the Taliban can use to radicalise even the most moderate Muslim, especially when the US was happy to bomb anything and anyone. This was not difficult to see for anyone with a sound understanding of Muslim Christian relations and Islam in general. The US was always going to lose the moment we engaged in pro-longed occupation.
        dragontamer 5y ago
        Looks like its only been increasing in size since 2008, which is roughly when ISIL / Arab Spring was all getting stronger. Obama was put into a situation where he needed to "surge" to counteract the rise of the Taliban. I'm not convinced that giving up in 2008 to 2010 was the best plan.
      - iammisc 5y ago
        When it comes to popular resistance movements, you are underestimating the most prominent force of all... that of persuasion. The Taliban had to just sit back, do nothing, and preach at the mosques about how the evil christians were coming to destroy good islamic peoples, and wait for their followers to amass. You have to be deluding yourself to think that poppy farms are what they really want. They are a religious faction. They want followers. The poppy farms are just an added benefit. But in terms of holding land, they have what matters most... people. And more importantly, they have religious and cultural dogma. You will never win against the Taliban. Just like empires have never won against Christianity. You are talking about a group of people with shared values that can act in concert without ever meeting because they have shared values that are so deeply engrained in their culture. The best way to break the Taliban apart would have been covert ops designed to sow sedition and splinter the group, but even that is risky and not a guarantee. > In fact, that's why they're trying to take over the country again, to once again have control of the Opium / Poppy farms and start getting more money for their organization. No it's not the reason they want control of the country. They want control because they believe it is their religious obligation. Any discussion of the Taliban that does not include Islam is like discussing Spanish colonialism without mentioning the church.
rascul 5y ago
It might not have taken an invasion and a decade, though. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1539468.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1539468.stm

Taking down Bin laden wasn't a waste of time, just staying there after he was dead was.

hindsightbias 5y ago

OBL left Afghanistan in 2001.

dragontamer 5y ago
Taliban still has significant influence in Pakistan. If OBL wasn't killed back then, you can rest assured he'd be leading the charge today into retaking Afghanistan. Its better that OBL is dead. But the new wave of leaders of the Taliban are still stronger than expected. ---------- Hell, ISIL / Daesh has splintered off of Al Qaeda and the two occasional get into skirmishes with each other. The leadership was in fact fractured successfully. It may not be enough for a lasting peace, but I wouldn't say that its completely worthless.
- iammisc 5y ago
  > still stronger than expected. They're only stronger than expected if you let the US media and US intelligence services set your expectations. If you had come to your own conclusion, you would have realized that the Taliban is one of the few entities actually able to hold Afghanistan and nothing the US did made it less potent in its ability. All we did was give them a twenty year break to amass more forces, more resources, and more training.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    > All we did was give them a twenty year break to amass more forces, more resources, and more training. They would have had more forces and resources if they were in control of the country for the last 20 years. In fact, that's why they're trying to take over the country again, to once again have control of the Opium / Poppy farms and start getting more money for their organization. Now the question is: is it worthwhile for the USA to hold onto those farm locations just so that the Taliban won't come into power? Probably not. But lets not be too hasty in our judgement here. The value in that land may be miniscule for the USA, but its of huge value to the Taliban.
    - rascul 5y ago
      I don't know the accuracy of the sources, but Wikipedia has the Taliban has almost doubling in size since 2001: 45,000 (2001 est.) 11,000 (2008 est.) 36,000 (2010 est.) 60,000 (2014 est.) 85,000 (2021 est.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban
      - iammisc 5y ago
        This confirms my theory above that the most important resource is people, which the united states handed to the Taliban in droves by occupying the country for the last twenty years. The look of a Christian country occupying a Muslim one is an easy catalyst that the Taliban can use to radicalise even the most moderate Muslim, especially when the US was happy to bomb anything and anyone. This was not difficult to see for anyone with a sound understanding of Muslim Christian relations and Islam in general. The US was always going to lose the moment we engaged in pro-longed occupation.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        Looks like its only been increasing in size since 2008, which is roughly when ISIL / Arab Spring was all getting stronger. Obama was put into a situation where he needed to "surge" to counteract the rise of the Taliban. I'm not convinced that giving up in 2008 to 2010 was the best plan.
    - iammisc 5y ago
      When it comes to popular resistance movements, you are underestimating the most prominent force of all... that of persuasion. The Taliban had to just sit back, do nothing, and preach at the mosques about how the evil christians were coming to destroy good islamic peoples, and wait for their followers to amass. You have to be deluding yourself to think that poppy farms are what they really want. They are a religious faction. They want followers. The poppy farms are just an added benefit. But in terms of holding land, they have what matters most... people. And more importantly, they have religious and cultural dogma. You will never win against the Taliban. Just like empires have never won against Christianity. You are talking about a group of people with shared values that can act in concert without ever meeting because they have shared values that are so deeply engrained in their culture. The best way to break the Taliban apart would have been covert ops designed to sow sedition and splinter the group, but even that is risky and not a guarantee. > In fact, that's why they're trying to take over the country again, to once again have control of the Opium / Poppy farms and start getting more money for their organization. No it's not the reason they want control of the country. They want control because they believe it is their religious obligation. Any discussion of the Taliban that does not include Islam is like discussing Spanish colonialism without mentioning the church.

rascul 5y ago

It might not have taken an invasion and a decade, though. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1539468.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1539468.stm