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I agree overall and think total vaccination would end the crisis given that it reduces mutations. But at least one health agency has put the protection of the m

I agree overall and think total vaccination would end the crisis given that it reduces mutations. But at least one health agency has put the protection of the mRNA vaccines for delta as low as ~40% and if the first 10 days everyone is infectious while the second 10 days the unvaccinated are in bed/quarantine then it sounds like the transmission rate could be about the same for both groups.

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> But at least one health agency has put the protection of the mRNA vaccines for delta as low as ~40% > then it sounds like the transmission rate could be about the same for both groups. Assuming those numbers, then transmission would be 40% lower in the vaccinated group? The 40% who get protected, do not then transmit. That's not "about the same".
- smorgusofborg 5y ago
  And the other ~60% have behavior changes like twice the time not in quarantine, so no real difference. I think delta is probably at this reproductive optimum and that makes it very hard for a variant that isn't successful in both vaccinated and unvaccinated to survive in a place where vaccination is ~50% that adapts behaviors based on monitoring delta.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    > And the other ~60% have behavior changes like twice the time not in quarantine, I do not think that this has actually been quantified.
    - smorgusofborg 5y ago
      This study implies R>1 for consistent transmission of specific strain in vaccinated staff in Vietnam. The Massachusetts study is consistent with the in vivo R being similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated, so nothing supports drawing the conclusion that lower risk of infection dominates the results AFA safety for other people. It is perfectly rational for vaccinated people to take more risks around infection since the infection is less likely and lower risk to the vaccinated. I think we shouldn't pretend there is adequate evidence that we provide any form of herd immunity to the unvaccinated as far as we know they are just as unsafe among us as among themselves.

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago

> But at least one health agency has put the protection of the mRNA vaccines for delta as low as ~40% > then it sounds like the transmission rate could be about the same for both groups. Assuming those numbers, then transmission would be 40% lower in the vaccinated group? The 40% who get protected, do not then transmit. That's not "about the same".

smorgusofborg 5y ago
And the other ~60% have behavior changes like twice the time not in quarantine, so no real difference. I think delta is probably at this reproductive optimum and that makes it very hard for a variant that isn't successful in both vaccinated and unvaccinated to survive in a place where vaccination is ~50% that adapts behaviors based on monitoring delta.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > And the other ~60% have behavior changes like twice the time not in quarantine, I do not think that this has actually been quantified.
  - smorgusofborg 5y ago
    This study implies R>1 for consistent transmission of specific strain in vaccinated staff in Vietnam. The Massachusetts study is consistent with the in vivo R being similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated, so nothing supports drawing the conclusion that lower risk of infection dominates the results AFA safety for other people. It is perfectly rational for vaccinated people to take more risks around infection since the infection is less likely and lower risk to the vaccinated. I think we shouldn't pretend there is adequate evidence that we provide any form of herd immunity to the unvaccinated as far as we know they are just as unsafe among us as among themselves.