> Maybe there will be transistor-based human-level AGI soon, but I guess it would require several kilowatts of power compared to the 20 or so watts a human brai

> Maybe there will be transistor-based human-level AGI soon, but I guess it would require several kilowatts of power compared to the 20 or so watts a human brain requires Given that entire datacenters don't come close to an AGI, let alone a human level one, I fear "several kilowatts of power" is lowballing it by a significant number of orders of magnitude. More to the point, we don't even know how or what gives rise to a general intelligence, and even defining it is basically a philosophical question. To me, the optimism of some AI enthusiasts (and I don't mean specifically the parent) feels like cavemen contemplating an expedition to the stars shortly after they invented the sling. I think the chances of us arriving to anything close to an AGI iteratively based on our current capabilities is a pipe dream.