3 ms·

I'm not sure how to read the linked abstract, maybe someone with more knowledge could chime in. The information I'm missing is what the absolute efficacy of th

I'm not sure how to read the linked abstract, maybe someone with more knowledge could chime in. The information I'm missing is what the absolute efficacy of those vaccines is against Delta. If the risk of being hospitalized while vaccinated with Moderna is "very, very low", then the risk of hospitalization while vaccinated with Pfizer, even if twice as high, would still be pretty low. I think this kind of actually useful info would be very useful in our current climate, where many people argue against vaccination. "Look, Pfizer is twice as bad as the other! Who knows what the other does? Better not get vaccinated at all!".

sterlind 5y ago
Right, I should have clarified that both Pfizer and Moderna are quite effective at preventing hospitalization, 85% vs. 91% respectively. But because of base rate Moderna ends up being two-fold more effective.
patrickyeon 5y ago
You might want to look at the full preprint, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v... I'm not in the field, but on page 13 you can see that there's a considerable difference in effectiveness against infection, but not against hospitalization (at least not yet). It's suggested that the recent changes in effectiveness are due to the Delta variant becoming prevalent. On page 15 there's a table with actual numbers from Minnesota. Drawing from similarly-sized pools of otherwise similar cohorts, they counted outcomes. Look at the bottom half, which covers people (in the vaccinated cohorts) who are considered "fully vaccinated" (14+ days since their second dose). So yeah, breakthroughs with Pfizer might be roughly twice as high, but "hospitalization or worse" is still 1/8th as likely as unvaccinated, and when you're looking at ICU admissions, Pfizer has had 2 and Moderna 1, so... small numbers make it hard to really compare. But look at that bottom row. 0 deaths for anybody vaccinated.

sterlind 5y ago

Right, I should have clarified that both Pfizer and Moderna are quite effective at preventing hospitalization, 85% vs. 91% respectively. But because of base rate Moderna ends up being two-fold more effective.

patrickyeon 5y ago

You might want to look at the full preprint, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v... I'm not in the field, but on page 13 you can see that there's a considerable difference in effectiveness against infection, but not against hospitalization (at least not yet). It's suggested that the recent changes in effectiveness are due to the Delta variant becoming prevalent. On page 15 there's a table with actual numbers from Minnesota. Drawing from similarly-sized pools of otherwise similar cohorts, they counted outcomes. Look at the bottom half, which covers people (in the vaccinated cohorts) who are considered "fully vaccinated" (14+ days since their second dose). So yeah, breakthroughs with Pfizer might be roughly twice as high, but "hospitalization or worse" is still 1/8th as likely as unvaccinated, and when you're looking at ICU admissions, Pfizer has had 2 and Moderna 1, so... small numbers make it hard to really compare. But look at that bottom row. 0 deaths for anybody vaccinated.