3 ms·
IIRC, Stross learned about Bitcoin in 2011 when doing research for Neptune's Brood. Had he hedged his bets and bought $20 of Bitcoin before writing posts like "
by ggreer 5y ago
IIRC, Stross learned about Bitcoin in 2011 when doing research for Neptune's Brood. Had he hedged his bets and bought $20 of Bitcoin before writing posts like "Why I want Bitcoin to die in a fire"[1], he'd be a multimillionaire today.
At some point in the past decade, Stross went mad. He's become consumed by dogmatism and doomsaying. He constantly predicts disaster, and he's constantly wrong. Here are a few examples.
He thought that Brexit would destroy the UK[2]:
> I'm calling Hard Brexit a road to mass starvation and famine-grade deaths on a scale not seen in the UK since the Hungry Forties (that's the 1840s, not the 1940s).
He canceled visits to the US because thought that Trump would become a totalitarian dictator[3]:
> In which case, for me to continue to plan to travel to the United States in eight months time would be as unwise as it would have been to plan in February 1933 to travel to Germany in September of that year: it might be survivable, but it would nevertheless be hazardous.
Here's a snippet from his 2018 retrospective[4]:
> 2018 was the year that the global climate change alarm sirens began to sound continuously, with wildfires and heat emergencies and melting icecaps. 2018 was also, by no coincidence whatsoever, the year in which the global neo-Nazi movement made considerable headway, with neo-fascist demagogues grabbing power in Brazil, tightening their stranglehold in India, the Philippines, Turkey, the USA, Italy, and elsewhere. The UK was, for a third consecutive year, paralyzed by the utter shit-show that is Brexit, with the deadline now looming less than 100 days ahead of us.
No matter how many times reality contradicts his views, he refuses to change his mind. Even in December he was predicting Brexit catastrophes.[5] Moreover, his writing style has become snide and dismissive. At first the transition saddened me, but now I just find it annoying.
1. https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2013/12/why-i-want-bitcoin-to-die-in-a.html https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2013/12/why-i-w...
2. http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2016/10/facts-of-life-and-death.html http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2016/10/facts-of...
3. https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2017/01/policy-change-future-us-visits.html https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2017/01/policy-...
4. https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2018/12/crawling-from-the-wreckage.html https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2018/12/crawlin...
5. https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/12/so-you-say-you-want-a-revoluti.html https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/12/so-you-...
- Karrot_Kream 5y agoThanks for quantifying this, it helps clarify his position (or lack thereof.) Unfortunately that's what happens when you fall into a bubble. Even when your worldview clashes with reality, rather than come to terms and revise your understanding/predictions, you retreat to your bubble and become redoubled. This is the true threat of the echo chamber.
- gjm11 5y agoI think you're overstating the case. I agree that he overestimated the damage Brexit would cause, and has continued to do so. The bit about Donald Trump is very misleading. The quotation is from a paragraph that begins "As for my worst-case nightmare scenario?". He was not claiming that in the actual world as it was then travelling to the US was like travelling to Germany in 1933. Trump becoming a totalitarian dictator was his worst-case nightmare scenario, not a prediction of what was definitely (or even likely) going to happen. I am not sure what in what he said about 2018 you consider to have been contradicted by reality. (Expressed overdramatically, sure.) I think you can make a pretty good case for all of Balsonaro, Modi, Duterte, Erdogan as neo-fascist demagogues, with allowance for a bit of hyperbole. I shall refrain from trying to assess Trump on that score. I'm not sure what he was so cross about in Italy. His description of the UK situation is pretty much right.