5 ms·

600k deaths after huge mitigations. Without any mitigation’s is it 3 million in the US dead?

rajin444 5y ago
How can you prove the mitigations worked? The only controls out there (Sweden, some US states, etc.) aren’t very robust (nor in favor of mitigation efforts).
- nielsbot 5y ago
  All you have to do is look at a deaths/infections curve before and after mitigations.
  - rajin444 5y ago
    Yes, but you need a control to compare it against. How do you get one?
    - nielsbot 5y ago
      Just look at the trend line? You might also want to look at the excess statistically significant deaths numbers. https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac8...
      - rajin444 5y ago
        You need controls to account for confounding factors. Looking at a trend line does not account for confounding factors.
        nielsbot 5y ago
        Ok, what would be a confounding factor?
  - natural219 5y ago
    it's been looked at several times, and a vast majority of the convincing evidence seems to fall in favor of the camp that overall mitigations do nearly nothing compared to control samples of places with no/fewer restrictions https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/18/coronalinks-5-18-20-when-all-you-have-is-a-hammer-everything-starts-looking-like-a-dance/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/18/coronalinks-5-18-20-wh...
    - kenjackson 5y ago
      That article is more than a year old. A far newer, more complete assessment shows that mitigations do you have an impact in reducing deaths and infections: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v...
- djrogers 5y ago
  There are 50 states in the US, all of which had different responses and mitigations in place last year. There is no compelling evidence that they made much difference, let alone a 5x one.
__blockcipher__ 5y ago
There's no convincing evidence the mitigations made a real difference, especially in the long-run. I'd expect to see bodies in the streets in Sweden given that they largely avoided the ritualistic behavior that the rest of the western world engaged in. Unfortunately, people have it so drilled into their heads that the lockdowns and masks worked, that I don't know what I could possibly say to convince someone otherwise.
Overton-Window 5y ago
This is an unfalsifiable claim. Sweden used but a fraction of the mitigations Israel did, yet the former is better off now.
djrogers 5y ago
Compare states - Florida with almost no mitigation, vs New York, New Jersey, or California with extreme mitigation. Go ahead and check the pre-vaccine data - there is no indication that the extreme mitigations did anything.
- kenjackson 5y ago
  Have you actually looked at the data? Take a look at this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v... And you do realize that in the past month Florida has 3x as many deaths as California, while being a much smaller state.
refurb 5y ago
Exactly. People who complain about the NSA spying on Americans don’t appreciate how many terrorist incidents were stopped. It would be way worse otherwise.

How can you prove the mitigations worked? The only controls out there (Sweden, some US states, etc.) aren’t very robust (nor in favor of mitigation efforts).

nielsbot 5y ago
All you have to do is look at a deaths/infections curve before and after mitigations.
- rajin444 5y ago
  Yes, but you need a control to compare it against. How do you get one?
  - nielsbot 5y ago
    Just look at the trend line? You might also want to look at the excess statistically significant deaths numbers. https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac8...
    - rajin444 5y ago
      You need controls to account for confounding factors. Looking at a trend line does not account for confounding factors.
      - nielsbot 5y ago
        Ok, what would be a confounding factor?
- natural219 5y ago
  it's been looked at several times, and a vast majority of the convincing evidence seems to fall in favor of the camp that overall mitigations do nearly nothing compared to control samples of places with no/fewer restrictions https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/18/coronalinks-5-18-20-when-all-you-have-is-a-hammer-everything-starts-looking-like-a-dance/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/18/coronalinks-5-18-20-wh...
  - kenjackson 5y ago
    That article is more than a year old. A far newer, more complete assessment shows that mitigations do you have an impact in reducing deaths and infections: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v...
djrogers 5y ago
There are 50 states in the US, all of which had different responses and mitigations in place last year. There is no compelling evidence that they made much difference, let alone a 5x one.

__blockcipher__ 5y ago

There's no convincing evidence the mitigations made a real difference, especially in the long-run. I'd expect to see bodies in the streets in Sweden given that they largely avoided the ritualistic behavior that the rest of the western world engaged in. Unfortunately, people have it so drilled into their heads that the lockdowns and masks worked, that I don't know what I could possibly say to convince someone otherwise.

Overton-Window 5y ago

This is an unfalsifiable claim. Sweden used but a fraction of the mitigations Israel did, yet the former is better off now.

djrogers 5y ago

Compare states - Florida with almost no mitigation, vs New York, New Jersey, or California with extreme mitigation. Go ahead and check the pre-vaccine data - there is no indication that the extreme mitigations did anything.

kenjackson 5y ago
Have you actually looked at the data? Take a look at this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261286v... And you do realize that in the past month Florida has 3x as many deaths as California, while being a much smaller state.

refurb 5y ago

Exactly. People who complain about the NSA spying on Americans don’t appreciate how many terrorist incidents were stopped. It would be way worse otherwise.