7 ms·

Techies think we’re on cusp of virtual world called ‘metaverse’. I’m skeptical

12 points by SmkyMt 5y ago

PaulHoule 5y ago
Remember that time when Facebook fooled the media to repackage their content as short-form video?
thehappypm 5y ago
I think if VR / metaverse etc ever had a moment to boom it was the pandemic. People forced to sit around at home and unable to physically socialize. That was the moment for a meta-interaction system to take root -- there was, for one brief moment, literally no competition from real social interaction. If it couldn't beat Zoom and FaceTime in that environment I doubt it ever will.
- smt88 5y ago
  To your point, I think people also realized the limits of digital living. It doesn't seem to fully satisfy social needs, no matter what form it takes.
- grillvogel 5y ago
  Animal Crossing was the true metaverse
- gopalv 5y ago
  > If it couldn't beat Zoom and FaceTime in that environment I doubt it ever will. Transferring over interactions from in-person to VR wasn't going to be how this was ever going to work. The closest method to in-person won out, because that was what it was replacing (not disrupting, displacing). The disruption is going to come from interactions which start virtual and stay there. Just like when smartphones came out, I overestimated what a year could bring & vastly underestimated what 5 years would do. In that sense, the metaverse is probably going to happen, to interact at a larger distance than just face to face - we've seen bits of this in WoW campaigns or the fortnite lobbies, where the "hanging together" is more important than the game for a lot of people. I just finished reading Otherworld, which is about a social networking company which branches off into VR goggles (not recommending it, the third act is a bit off - sort of Chandler's law to cull the paths). But it did show how a high school age kid transitions into the virtual world for their interactions.
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    Sure, but VR has been around for a long time. The first time I tried an Oculus was well over 5 years ago. What's happened since then?
    - tuatoru 5y ago
      > What's happened since then? And to 3D TVs? https://www.techradar.com/news/4k-tvs-should-have-saved-3d-heres-what-went-wrong https://www.techradar.com/news/4k-tvs-should-have-saved-3d-h...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
smt88 5y ago
Has Mark Zuckerberg predicted or created a major product since Facebook? Everything else that's popular and made by Facebook has been an acquisition (e.g. Instagram) or a clone of someone else.
- nowherebeen 5y ago
  The fact he hasn’t come up with a single unique idea since Facebook makes me think the Winklevosses might not have been lying about coming up with the idea.
  - ngokevin 5y ago
    The only thing Facebook has really made is the newsfeed? That's maybe the least popular feature.
nitwit005 5y ago
This is the first time I've seen the term metaverse in a non-joke context.
helen___keller 5y ago
There's already things that look like a metaverse in games like Pokemon Go. Remember those videos from 2016 of hundreds of people in central park all running towards a rare pokemon spawn? That's a shared virtual world overlaid on top of the real world, through a cell phone game. But nobody really thinks Pokemon Go is that revolutionary, and certainly not deserving of the title "Metaverse". It's the same problem as with Artificial Intelligence. There was a whole bunch of AI hype that began around the proliferation of deep neural nets, but nothing that people recognize as an artificial intelligence in the sense that you see in movies or read in books (i.e. an AGI). So much for that intelligence explosion. Any metaverse is going to be limited by the tools that tie it to the real world. For the most part this is GPS to determine coordinates, and cell phone to run relatively lightweight computations and render to a display. If you're really fancy (like Google), you can have people point their cameras at buildings to determine where on the street the person is standing exactly (Google Live View). None of these things feel futuristic, so they'll never fit the layman's idea of a Metaverse (which is, roughly, a virtual world overlaid 1:1 on top of the real world. Not 1:1 on top of a GPS coordinate system).

12 points by SmkyMt 5y ago

Remember that time when Facebook fooled the media to repackage their content as short-form video?

I think if VR / metaverse etc ever had a moment to boom it was the pandemic. People forced to sit around at home and unable to physically socialize. That was the moment for a meta-interaction system to take root -- there was, for one brief moment, literally no competition from real social interaction. If it couldn't beat Zoom and FaceTime in that environment I doubt it ever will.

smt88 5y ago
To your point, I think people also realized the limits of digital living. It doesn't seem to fully satisfy social needs, no matter what form it takes.
grillvogel 5y ago
Animal Crossing was the true metaverse
gopalv 5y ago
> If it couldn't beat Zoom and FaceTime in that environment I doubt it ever will. Transferring over interactions from in-person to VR wasn't going to be how this was ever going to work. The closest method to in-person won out, because that was what it was replacing (not disrupting, displacing). The disruption is going to come from interactions which start virtual and stay there. Just like when smartphones came out, I overestimated what a year could bring & vastly underestimated what 5 years would do. In that sense, the metaverse is probably going to happen, to interact at a larger distance than just face to face - we've seen bits of this in WoW campaigns or the fortnite lobbies, where the "hanging together" is more important than the game for a lot of people. I just finished reading Otherworld, which is about a social networking company which branches off into VR goggles (not recommending it, the third act is a bit off - sort of Chandler's law to cull the paths). But it did show how a high school age kid transitions into the virtual world for their interactions.
- thehappypm 5y ago
  Sure, but VR has been around for a long time. The first time I tried an Oculus was well over 5 years ago. What's happened since then?
  - tuatoru 5y ago
    > What's happened since then? And to 3D TVs? https://www.techradar.com/news/4k-tvs-should-have-saved-3d-heres-what-went-wrong https://www.techradar.com/news/4k-tvs-should-have-saved-3d-h...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

smt88 5y ago

Has Mark Zuckerberg predicted or created a major product since Facebook? Everything else that's popular and made by Facebook has been an acquisition (e.g. Instagram) or a clone of someone else.

nowherebeen 5y ago
The fact he hasn’t come up with a single unique idea since Facebook makes me think the Winklevosses might not have been lying about coming up with the idea.
- ngokevin 5y ago
  The only thing Facebook has really made is the newsfeed? That's maybe the least popular feature.

nitwit005 5y ago

This is the first time I've seen the term metaverse in a non-joke context.

helen___keller 5y ago

There's already things that look like a metaverse in games like Pokemon Go. Remember those videos from 2016 of hundreds of people in central park all running towards a rare pokemon spawn? That's a shared virtual world overlaid on top of the real world, through a cell phone game. But nobody really thinks Pokemon Go is that revolutionary, and certainly not deserving of the title "Metaverse". It's the same problem as with Artificial Intelligence. There was a whole bunch of AI hype that began around the proliferation of deep neural nets, but nothing that people recognize as an artificial intelligence in the sense that you see in movies or read in books (i.e. an AGI). So much for that intelligence explosion. Any metaverse is going to be limited by the tools that tie it to the real world. For the most part this is GPS to determine coordinates, and cell phone to run relatively lightweight computations and render to a display. If you're really fancy (like Google), you can have people point their cameras at buildings to determine where on the street the person is standing exactly (Google Live View). None of these things feel futuristic, so they'll never fit the layman's idea of a Metaverse (which is, roughly, a virtual world overlaid 1:1 on top of the real world. Not 1:1 on top of a GPS coordinate system).