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hooray for doing the math, thanks This article is from 2015 and one of the author's key points is that we're never going to see the equity market booms of the
by mister_tee 5y ago
hooray for doing the math, thanks
This article is from 2015 and one of the author's key points is that we're never going to see the equity market booms of the 80s, 90s, and 2010s ever again. The example is that $100 in 1979 turned into $2000 in 2015... but that's only 8.5% annual RoR. I'm not sure whether it's real or nominal; depends on whether their dollar amounts are inflation-adjusted.
IMO it was tempting at that time to say the next few years are going to look different than the past few. I, not at all an economist, also thought in 2015 the top must be in because, come on, just look at the graph! And the P/E, the CAPE, the Buffet indicator! That was wrong, of course. S&P 500 is up 125% since then, for a 17% nominal RoR. Which is double that 8.5% in case it was also nominal.
random statement: "the millionaire next door" in 1996 is "the $1.73-millionaire next door" in 2021. Or more: CPI numbers just came in at 5.4% an hour ago.
- sokoloff 5y agoThe CPI being that high (and being unsurprising) is supportive of the equity market continuing to do well over the next decade-plus.