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The RCP8.5 scenario would require that humanity burned almost every last drop of oil and did nothing to mitigate carbon. That's not likely because the remaining
by perrygeo 5y ago
The RCP8.5 scenario would require that humanity burned almost every last drop of oil and did nothing to mitigate carbon. That's not likely because the remaining fossil fuel deposits are significantly more costly and energy-intensive to extract. Eventually the energy return on energy invested will drop to economically nonviable levels. It's debatable whether the carbon emitted in 8.5 is even physically possible.
My guess is humans collaborating on a green future will mitigate emissions ever so slightly. But it will be energy/financial crises that force us to.
So can we look forward to fewer impacts under a more moderate pathway (say 4.5 w/m^2)? Probably not. The IPCC has consistently under-estimated the impacts and ignored feedback loops. Even the latest AR6 report says "Additional ecosystem responses to warming not yet fully included in climate models, such as CO2 and CH4 fluxes from wetlands, permafrost thaw and wildfires, would further increase concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere." We're locked into runaway climate impacts for centuries either way, not much of a consolation prize.