6 ms·

Green house gases -> global warming -> more extreme heat -> more air conditioning —> more energy used -> more green house gas emissions.

by psadri 5y ago

Aerroon 5y ago
Also, people are becoming richer and can finally afford air conditioning.
- vincentpants 5y ago
  Huh what? Source?
  - ceilingcorner 5y ago
    See: Singapore yesterday and India today.
dantheman 5y ago
Heating causes more green house gas emissions than air conditioning.
- ajuc 5y ago
  What causes emissions is deviation from optimal temperature. And with global warming there's more extreme deviations both ways. Also - in my country recently the peak electricity usage moved from winter to summer because of AC. Nobody had AC 30 years ago, now it's common in offices and people start installing it in their homes. Heating still uses more energy overall, and in worse forms (burning coal and gas, mostly), but this slowly changes.
  - TeMPOraL 5y ago
    > Also - in my country recently the peak electricity usage moved from winter to summer because of AC. Yes, that's the goal. This is good. In countries that have winters, this increase should be offset by much greater drop of energy usage in winter. Couple factors play into this: - AC (heat pump) used for heating is 2-5x more energy-efficient than anything else people normally use, including in particular burning any source of fuel for heat. - Insulation works better at reducing heating costs than cooling costs (people and equipment generate heat too, which insulation will try to keep in). As a result, you should expect peak electricity usage to shift to summer, and total energy usage per capita to drop.
    - ajuc 5y ago
      We're both Polish (I think?) so I'll talk about my experience: last few years there has been a huge boom in solar panels because of EU and state-funded incentives. But most people don't invest in heat pumps, just replace coal with solar panels + electric resistive heating + possibly AC, because that's cheaper and return on investment is higher. This puts a huge strain on the electric network and actually increases demand for electricity both in the summer and in the winter. The boom will likely stop this year because government changed the rules to incentivize installing batteries together with solar cells to protect the electrical network from unpredictability. This means heat pumps make more sense economically (cause you can't use electric network as free battery so efficiency matters), but solar cells in general (heat pumps or not) become much less profitable for average house. So I expect the boom to slow down or stop completely. I've looked into it recently because my parents upgraded their house from coal to solar panels + heat pump + separate AC. It's very expansive to update the coal central heating installation to work as both heating and cooling so people mostly buy independent AC even when they have a heat pump. Heat pump/AC combo makes sense only in new houses. So, in conclusion I'm not that optimistic about energy usage in Poland. I've also worked in a company that did software for trading energy so I know a little from the other side and Polish electric grid isn't prepared for renewables and won't be in near future. Transport capabilities are even more of a bottleneck than installed power. Also - average yearly energy usage in Poland isn't dropping AFAIR - it slowly increases. It was 21 629 MW in 2010 and 23 451 in 2019. Maybe lockdowns lowered it slightly but it will bounce back. More data: https://wysokienapiecie.pl/27524-energetyka-w-polsce-w-2019-roku-moc-produkcja-energii-wg-danych-pse/ https://wysokienapiecie.pl/27524-energetyka-w-polsce-w-2019-...
f6v 5y ago
We need more efficient AC, no question about that. We also need to stop building glass buildings that can’t exist without AC. But there’s no way to live completely without AC, it’s likely going to get warmer even if we become carbon neutral now.
- SilverRed 5y ago
  Most of those modern glass buildings are double glazed and fairly airtight which is probably better than the average house.
  - michaelt 5y ago
    Houses-vs-glass-buildings is a tough comparison, as a lot of glass buildings are office buildings. And (pre-pandemic, at least) office buildings often have far less floor space per occupant - especially meeting rooms. So here in the UK, where only perhaps 1% of homes have air conditioning, it's not at all unusual for office buildings to have air conditioning.
rlt 5y ago
I’ve been wondering if there’s a corollary to that with wildfires. It seems there could be a feedback loop, but wildfires happen naturally too and there’s also a fixed number of trees in the world to burn.
jillesvangurp 5y ago
Renewable power -> use as much AC as you want; it's not a problem. More power demand -> more renewable power because it's the cheapest way to get more power. More renewable power -> all expensive/dirty forms of energy become less attractive. That's a dynamic that's been playing out over the last few decades. Lots of coal plants are closing. Gas plants are getting a lot less attractive as well for the same reasons. 2050 is a year where lots of countries want to be carbon neutral; that's only 29 years from now. Once we are, you can install as much AC as you want/need without having to worry about adding CO2 to the atmosphere. If you have solar on your roof, you can chill your house guilt free right now.
- tpm 5y ago
  AC is still a huge problem never mind the energy source: Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants, are 1000-9000 times stronger greenhouse gasses than CO2. They will eventually be phased out, but until then will leak into the atmosphere a lot. https://drawdown.org/solutions/refrigerant-management https://drawdown.org/solutions/refrigerant-management
  - TeMPOraL 5y ago
    > Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants, are 1000-9000 times stronger greenhouse gasses than CO2. There's also many more times less of them in circulation. Also, arguably, ACs are a drop in the bucket compared to refrigeration (which is roughly the same thing, but in a box). There are options being explored, IIRC propane (aka. R290) turned out to be a great and environmentally-friendly alternative to hydrofluorocarbons.
  - jillesvangurp 5y ago
    They are a problem. But they also break down pretty quickly, just like methane. Unlike CO2, which can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. That means they are much less of an issue than that number suggests unless we start mass dumping all of that into the air as opposed to recycling it. That is btw. happening with methane, which is leaking into the air from e.g. melting permafrost in Siberia, intensive farming and soil tilling, etc. Also, some heat pumps use alternate fluids. So, we might clean that up further. But compared to the massive scale with which we are producing CO2 currently, that's a minor issue.
pantalaimon 5y ago
That's one of those feedback loops people keep talking about
Krssst 5y ago
Couldn't AC work as a heat pump in winter, saving energy and maybe emissions in the process?
Valmar 5y ago
So I suppose your solution is for people to just die of cold in the winter, and from the heat in summer?

Green house gases -> global warming -> more extreme heat -> more air conditioning —> more energy used -> more green house gas emissions.

by psadri 5y ago

Green house gases -> global warming -> more extreme heat -> more air conditioning —> more energy used -> more green house gas emissions.

Aerroon 5y ago

Also, people are becoming richer and can finally afford air conditioning.

vincentpants 5y ago
Huh what? Source?
- ceilingcorner 5y ago
  See: Singapore yesterday and India today.

dantheman 5y ago

Heating causes more green house gas emissions than air conditioning.

ajuc 5y ago
What causes emissions is deviation from optimal temperature. And with global warming there's more extreme deviations both ways. Also - in my country recently the peak electricity usage moved from winter to summer because of AC. Nobody had AC 30 years ago, now it's common in offices and people start installing it in their homes. Heating still uses more energy overall, and in worse forms (burning coal and gas, mostly), but this slowly changes.
- TeMPOraL 5y ago
  > Also - in my country recently the peak electricity usage moved from winter to summer because of AC. Yes, that's the goal. This is good. In countries that have winters, this increase should be offset by much greater drop of energy usage in winter. Couple factors play into this: - AC (heat pump) used for heating is 2-5x more energy-efficient than anything else people normally use, including in particular burning any source of fuel for heat. - Insulation works better at reducing heating costs than cooling costs (people and equipment generate heat too, which insulation will try to keep in). As a result, you should expect peak electricity usage to shift to summer, and total energy usage per capita to drop.
  - ajuc 5y ago
    We're both Polish (I think?) so I'll talk about my experience: last few years there has been a huge boom in solar panels because of EU and state-funded incentives. But most people don't invest in heat pumps, just replace coal with solar panels + electric resistive heating + possibly AC, because that's cheaper and return on investment is higher. This puts a huge strain on the electric network and actually increases demand for electricity both in the summer and in the winter. The boom will likely stop this year because government changed the rules to incentivize installing batteries together with solar cells to protect the electrical network from unpredictability. This means heat pumps make more sense economically (cause you can't use electric network as free battery so efficiency matters), but solar cells in general (heat pumps or not) become much less profitable for average house. So I expect the boom to slow down or stop completely. I've looked into it recently because my parents upgraded their house from coal to solar panels + heat pump + separate AC. It's very expansive to update the coal central heating installation to work as both heating and cooling so people mostly buy independent AC even when they have a heat pump. Heat pump/AC combo makes sense only in new houses. So, in conclusion I'm not that optimistic about energy usage in Poland. I've also worked in a company that did software for trading energy so I know a little from the other side and Polish electric grid isn't prepared for renewables and won't be in near future. Transport capabilities are even more of a bottleneck than installed power. Also - average yearly energy usage in Poland isn't dropping AFAIR - it slowly increases. It was 21 629 MW in 2010 and 23 451 in 2019. Maybe lockdowns lowered it slightly but it will bounce back. More data: https://wysokienapiecie.pl/27524-energetyka-w-polsce-w-2019-roku-moc-produkcja-energii-wg-danych-pse/ https://wysokienapiecie.pl/27524-energetyka-w-polsce-w-2019-...

f6v 5y ago

We need more efficient AC, no question about that. We also need to stop building glass buildings that can’t exist without AC. But there’s no way to live completely without AC, it’s likely going to get warmer even if we become carbon neutral now.

SilverRed 5y ago
Most of those modern glass buildings are double glazed and fairly airtight which is probably better than the average house.
- michaelt 5y ago
  Houses-vs-glass-buildings is a tough comparison, as a lot of glass buildings are office buildings. And (pre-pandemic, at least) office buildings often have far less floor space per occupant - especially meeting rooms. So here in the UK, where only perhaps 1% of homes have air conditioning, it's not at all unusual for office buildings to have air conditioning.

rlt 5y ago

I’ve been wondering if there’s a corollary to that with wildfires. It seems there could be a feedback loop, but wildfires happen naturally too and there’s also a fixed number of trees in the world to burn.

jillesvangurp 5y ago

Renewable power -> use as much AC as you want; it's not a problem. More power demand -> more renewable power because it's the cheapest way to get more power. More renewable power -> all expensive/dirty forms of energy become less attractive. That's a dynamic that's been playing out over the last few decades. Lots of coal plants are closing. Gas plants are getting a lot less attractive as well for the same reasons. 2050 is a year where lots of countries want to be carbon neutral; that's only 29 years from now. Once we are, you can install as much AC as you want/need without having to worry about adding CO2 to the atmosphere. If you have solar on your roof, you can chill your house guilt free right now.

tpm 5y ago
AC is still a huge problem never mind the energy source: Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants, are 1000-9000 times stronger greenhouse gasses than CO2. They will eventually be phased out, but until then will leak into the atmosphere a lot. https://drawdown.org/solutions/refrigerant-management https://drawdown.org/solutions/refrigerant-management
- TeMPOraL 5y ago
  > Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants, are 1000-9000 times stronger greenhouse gasses than CO2. There's also many more times less of them in circulation. Also, arguably, ACs are a drop in the bucket compared to refrigeration (which is roughly the same thing, but in a box). There are options being explored, IIRC propane (aka. R290) turned out to be a great and environmentally-friendly alternative to hydrofluorocarbons.
- jillesvangurp 5y ago
  They are a problem. But they also break down pretty quickly, just like methane. Unlike CO2, which can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. That means they are much less of an issue than that number suggests unless we start mass dumping all of that into the air as opposed to recycling it. That is btw. happening with methane, which is leaking into the air from e.g. melting permafrost in Siberia, intensive farming and soil tilling, etc. Also, some heat pumps use alternate fluids. So, we might clean that up further. But compared to the massive scale with which we are producing CO2 currently, that's a minor issue.

pantalaimon 5y ago

That's one of those feedback loops people keep talking about

Krssst 5y ago

Couldn't AC work as a heat pump in winter, saving energy and maybe emissions in the process?

Valmar 5y ago

So I suppose your solution is for people to just die of cold in the winter, and from the heat in summer?