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Are we seeing apex Facebook? I've been thinking this for years now, but there's really nothing to replace it, it has a huge lock-in, and there's not been an un
by kirse 5y ago
Are we seeing apex Facebook?
I've been thinking this for years now, but there's really nothing to replace it, it has a huge lock-in, and there's not been an underlying technical shift that enables product re-invention.
"Social networking" has obviously been around forever, IMO that core technical landscape shift we've seen for 70+ years that results in product evolution has been increasing network connection speed. Faster connections drive re-invention on just about every layer of the internet. In this case:
300b ---> 14k+ -> 56k --> DSL/Cable > Mobile 3G -> ??
Email --> BBS --> AOL --> MySpace --> Facebook --> ??
My guess is we'll see a true Facebook killer emerge once mmWave 5G hits widespread adoption. Of course FB will have their own products to compete, but talking to many Gen-Z they are not really interested in Facebook and typically use Snapchat/TikTok/etc. Facebook is losing the mindshare game, so we're waiting on the tech to seal the blow.
On the devil's advocate side, FB has made some shrewd acquisitions like IG/WhatsApp, and tech itself is increasingly headed towards a "cereal box" mindset where a few core companies make all the products you consume under separate labels. A new competitor would need the guts to avoid an early exit.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]