3 ms·

I'm asking the first question. I agree with you that even if the answer to the first question is, "yes, Uber can be profitable", the answer to the second questi

I'm asking the first question. I agree with you that even if the answer to the first question is, "yes, Uber can be profitable", the answer to the second question (can it generate a positive return for its investors) is in doubt. It's possible for a company to be a losing investment and yet still end up as a profitable business operationally. I don't think "For sure, turn down spending and turn up the prices" is something that the people arguing "Uber can never be profitable" would agree with. They're arguing that this can't work, and therefore Uber is destined to go out of business once the investment billions dry up. I'm just asking why that is so, given that the taxi market is a thing, and that a lot of people like Uber better than taxis.

dragontamer 5y ago
> I'm asking the first question. I agree with you that even if the answer to the first question is, "yes, Uber can be profitable", the answer to the second question (can it generate a positive return for its investors) is in doubt. It's possible for a company to be a losing investment and yet still end up as a profitable business operationally. But then if we're admitting that Uber's unlikely to be profitable over its lifetime, why would anyone buy their stock? That's really what people care about in these discussions. Its not "Will Uber be profitable this quarter?", its... "should I buy Uber stock?". The last guy lost money on Uber stock and is trying to offload these shares / certificates onto someone else now. Will buying those shares at this current price (aka: very expensive: $81 Billion market cap) be worthwhile? You can buy many other companies at much cheaper prices than that.
- neonate 5y ago
  > That's really what people care about in these discussions. Its not "Will Uber be profitable this quarter?", its... "should I buy Uber stock?". It's definitely not what I care about. I'm just a user, not an investor. What I care about is whether I'll still be able to use the service in the long run, albeit at higher prices. Also, if that's what people making these arguments really care about, then I think it's misleading for them to be arguing that Uber can never be profitable and is destined to go out of business. That is not the same thing as being a poor stock market buy at current valuations, whether the latest round of investors will lose money, and so on.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Maybe you're not the target audience of the blogpost then? The blogpost is pretty clear to be coming in from an angle of "stockholders" perspective. > Uber didn't need self-driving cars – it needed us to think it would have self-driving cars. That way the company's Saudi owners could raise investment capital from subsequent "investors" (AKA "suckers") all the way up to the IPO, cash out, and walk away, whistling innocently. > That's the bezzle at work – a dazzle op that keeps new money flowing in, convincing people that a pile of shit this big must have a pony beneath it. But as the years went by, the stories that Uber told us about its path to profitability got more and more fanciful. The big gist of this entire blog post is "Hey Stockholders, I think you've been swindled by Uber's CEO". That's the thesis in a nutshell. If you don't care about the stockholder perspective, that's fine and dandy. I'm not saying you should care. (I'm not a shareholder, so I certainly don't care very much). But... as someone who does participate in the stock market, I still find these stories fascinating. I probably will be buying stocks in the near future, so I do want to know about all of this drama going on in different companies.
    - ghaff 5y ago
      There was a whole lot of some combination of self-delusion and grift going on around self-driving and not just with respect to Uber. Even if you made some very optimistic assumptions around the tech, I'm not sure it ever moved the cost needle as much as people assuming it made taxi rides almost too cheap to meter thought it would.
ghaff 5y ago
Uber can probably be profitable. Cut costs drastically. Focus on where the business can be profitable--which probably means effectively pulling out of non core urban areas. But it will clearly be a less good service for a lot of people. And probably doesn't look a lot better than taxis for many people any longer. And for not on demand and not price sensitive, there are always private cars as there have been all along in many areas.

dragontamer 5y ago

> I'm asking the first question. I agree with you that even if the answer to the first question is, "yes, Uber can be profitable", the answer to the second question (can it generate a positive return for its investors) is in doubt. It's possible for a company to be a losing investment and yet still end up as a profitable business operationally. But then if we're admitting that Uber's unlikely to be profitable over its lifetime, why would anyone buy their stock? That's really what people care about in these discussions. Its not "Will Uber be profitable this quarter?", its... "should I buy Uber stock?". The last guy lost money on Uber stock and is trying to offload these shares / certificates onto someone else now. Will buying those shares at this current price (aka: very expensive: $81 Billion market cap) be worthwhile? You can buy many other companies at much cheaper prices than that.

neonate 5y ago
> That's really what people care about in these discussions. Its not "Will Uber be profitable this quarter?", its... "should I buy Uber stock?". It's definitely not what I care about. I'm just a user, not an investor. What I care about is whether I'll still be able to use the service in the long run, albeit at higher prices. Also, if that's what people making these arguments really care about, then I think it's misleading for them to be arguing that Uber can never be profitable and is destined to go out of business. That is not the same thing as being a poor stock market buy at current valuations, whether the latest round of investors will lose money, and so on.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Maybe you're not the target audience of the blogpost then? The blogpost is pretty clear to be coming in from an angle of "stockholders" perspective. > Uber didn't need self-driving cars – it needed us to think it would have self-driving cars. That way the company's Saudi owners could raise investment capital from subsequent "investors" (AKA "suckers") all the way up to the IPO, cash out, and walk away, whistling innocently. > That's the bezzle at work – a dazzle op that keeps new money flowing in, convincing people that a pile of shit this big must have a pony beneath it. But as the years went by, the stories that Uber told us about its path to profitability got more and more fanciful. The big gist of this entire blog post is "Hey Stockholders, I think you've been swindled by Uber's CEO". That's the thesis in a nutshell. If you don't care about the stockholder perspective, that's fine and dandy. I'm not saying you should care. (I'm not a shareholder, so I certainly don't care very much). But... as someone who does participate in the stock market, I still find these stories fascinating. I probably will be buying stocks in the near future, so I do want to know about all of this drama going on in different companies.
  - ghaff 5y ago
    There was a whole lot of some combination of self-delusion and grift going on around self-driving and not just with respect to Uber. Even if you made some very optimistic assumptions around the tech, I'm not sure it ever moved the cost needle as much as people assuming it made taxi rides almost too cheap to meter thought it would.

ghaff 5y ago

Uber can probably be profitable. Cut costs drastically. Focus on where the business can be profitable--which probably means effectively pulling out of non core urban areas. But it will clearly be a less good service for a lot of people. And probably doesn't look a lot better than taxis for many people any longer. And for not on demand and not price sensitive, there are always private cars as there have been all along in many areas.