You might like Philip Tetlock's "Expert Political Judgement: How Good is it? How can we know?". He quantitatively studied political predictions for I think it

You might like Philip Tetlock's "Expert Political Judgement: How Good is it? How can we know?". He quantitatively studied political predictions for I think it was 20 years and how different cognitive styles affect effectiveness. Specifically he used the analogy of "foxes vs hedgehogs" from Isiah Berlin's famous essay as different cognitive styles and compared predictions over along period. https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715 https://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/d... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox