3 ms·

If we could just get everyone vaccinated it would make R much less than 1.0. I'm curious if we know this for a fact. We started out with attainable numbers for

by morsch 5y ago

If we could just get everyone vaccinated it would make R much less than 1.0. I'm curious if we know this for a fact. We started out with attainable numbers for herd immunity (which I think is pretty much equivalent to R<1). But that was based on an apparent overestimation of the sterilizing immunity of the vaccines. The alternative appears to be an endemic virus with occasional booster vaccinations for certain populations.

foxyv 5y ago
We require about 80% vaccination or recovered from COVID to achieve herd immunity. Right now we have 50% vaccinated and 10% confirmed cases. The more infectious Delta variant has skewed it more towards a 90-95% requirement. This means that before we reach herd immunity we need to either vaccinate or infect an additional 20% of the population at least. I think a big factor was July 4th. Summer vacation kept cases low until now. Then the big family gatherings really ramped things up. Now we're going back to school soon. Vaccination reduces transmission but not 100%. Notice I said 70-80% and not 100%. I don't think anyone expected it to be 100% effective at preventing breakthrough infections. I'm hoping we don't have to eat that additional 20% with regular infection. Delta is NASTY.
- morsch 5y ago
  I mean, if the numbers are right (they match what I'm reading here in Europe), I suppose we're lucky, because it's totally possible that given a slightly more contagious virus or a slightly higher rate of vaccine breakthrough that even at 100% vaccination/infection rate there is no herd immunity. On the other hand, if immunity decreases over time, we might need something like 90-95% vaccinated or infected during the past 3 months (just as an example). I'm not sure that we know where along those dimensions we are.
  - foxyv 5y ago
    Also, the more infected we have, the more likely another new strain will come up that is even worse than Delta. Unfortunately with the current international COVID numbers this is almost inevitable. Hopefully we can delay it in time to create boosters. However Delta hit us so fast there was no chance. Luckily the current vaccine is still pretty effective against Delta, even if it is a bit limited.

by morsch 5y ago

foxyv 5y ago

We require about 80% vaccination or recovered from COVID to achieve herd immunity. Right now we have 50% vaccinated and 10% confirmed cases. The more infectious Delta variant has skewed it more towards a 90-95% requirement. This means that before we reach herd immunity we need to either vaccinate or infect an additional 20% of the population at least. I think a big factor was July 4th. Summer vacation kept cases low until now. Then the big family gatherings really ramped things up. Now we're going back to school soon. Vaccination reduces transmission but not 100%. Notice I said 70-80% and not 100%. I don't think anyone expected it to be 100% effective at preventing breakthrough infections. I'm hoping we don't have to eat that additional 20% with regular infection. Delta is NASTY.

morsch 5y ago
I mean, if the numbers are right (they match what I'm reading here in Europe), I suppose we're lucky, because it's totally possible that given a slightly more contagious virus or a slightly higher rate of vaccine breakthrough that even at 100% vaccination/infection rate there is no herd immunity. On the other hand, if immunity decreases over time, we might need something like 90-95% vaccinated or infected during the past 3 months (just as an example). I'm not sure that we know where along those dimensions we are.
- foxyv 5y ago
  Also, the more infected we have, the more likely another new strain will come up that is even worse than Delta. Unfortunately with the current international COVID numbers this is almost inevitable. Hopefully we can delay it in time to create boosters. However Delta hit us so fast there was no chance. Luckily the current vaccine is still pretty effective against Delta, even if it is a bit limited.