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The West lowered their CO2 production by moving all manufacturing to China, so this isn't too surprising. Also, China, like most of the world except for Afrika,

The West lowered their CO2 production by moving all manufacturing to China, so this isn't too surprising. Also, China, like most of the world except for Afrika, has a shrinking population (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_rate). China needs to start building nuclear power plants and replace all those coal plants.

bko 5y ago
Read the second part of my comment. 90% of Chinese CO2 emissions are not trade based.
- nemetroid 5y ago
  That doesn’t make the ”CO2 outsourcing” claim untrue. For the 1990-2008 period, the paper[1] cited as the source for the graph in question notes: > Collectively, the net CO2 emission reduction of ∼2% (0.3 Gt CO2) in Annex B countries from 1990 to 2008 is much smaller than the additional net emission transfer of 1.2 Gt CO2 from non-Annex B to Annex B countries (equivalent to subtracting the net emission transfers in 2008 from 1990 in Fig. 2). The situation may have improved since then[2], but already in 2008, China’s consumption share of its own emissions was 80%. This figure in itself neither proves or disproves whether developed nations have outsourced their emissions. 1: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/21/8903.full.pdf https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/21/8903.full.pdf 2: Our World in Data cites ”Global Carbon Budget” for newer figures, but it’s raw data, and I’m currently not able to process it myself.
- agent327 5y ago
  I just straight-out don't believe that. Maybe this is by some incredibly narrow definition of CO2 production, whereby if the produce of a factory is first shipped to a harbor by a Chinese company before leaving China, it counts as 'internal'?
  - bumby 5y ago
    This study is a bit old and I’m ignoring their “technology based” method because I don’t think the climate cares if a country would have emitted less if they had equivalent tech[*] , but it shows Chinas consumption based emissions is about 84% of its production based emissions. I.e., 84% of the emissions generated in China were for products/services consumed in China. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118307536 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111... To your point, though, the article corroborates the emissions export claim. (The US is shown as a next exporter in emissions, with consumption based emissions ~13% higher than production emissions). Both points can be simultaneously true. [*]for the sake of this discussion, at least. I can understand the relevance for creating policy though
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  China has 1.4 billion people. You would expect them to have about ~20% share of emissions in a perfectly fair world, instead they have 28%. Since 1751, they have emitted 12.5% of all emissions while having an even larger share of the global population. The US has 315 million people. You would expect them to have 4.5% share of emissions in a fair world. Instead, they have 15%. Since 1751, they have emitted 25% of all emissions. The numbers seem pretty clear to me.
pfdietz 5y ago
Most of the world does not have a shrinking population. The birth rates may be below replacement, but populations are still growing as the age structure shifts. Japan has achieved true negative population growth.
- savingsPossible 5y ago
  "achieved" I get that this is good considering climate change, but we'll see what other effect it will have in terms of human suffering
  - tremon 5y ago
    At least there will be fewer people in Japan suffering from the climate changes over the next century.
  - agent327 5y ago
    It isn't all bad. The aging population will have to be supported by fewer people, which is obviously a problem, and one that can really only be solved by asking the elderly to work to a greater age. On the flip side, Japan has incredibly dense cities with tiny houses. As the population drops to half its current level there will also be more space for living decently, with bigger houses, more green spaces, etc. It's not at all impossible that in such a situation, women may choose to have more children again.
- oblio 5y ago
  Every country in the developed world plus the former Warsaw pact members have negative natural population growth. They're being propped up by immigrants, that's why they're populations are growing. For example France has about 67 million people but the number of natives is estimated to be around 50 million. Which would be about their population in 1971, 50 years ago. Similar story with the UK, Switzerland, the US, etc. In Japan it's just visible because they have negligible immigration plus even lower birth rates.
  - pfdietz 5y ago
bhupy 5y ago
This talking point is simply not true: https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1424038327905230850 https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1424038327905230850
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
NoGravitas 5y ago
China is launching thorium-fueled molten-salt reactors starting with a 2-gigawatt prototype in September; they plan on building lots of smaller ones for production. I'm hoping this replaces coal pretty quickly. https://newsforenergy.com/nuclear/china-to-activate-worlds-first-clean-nuclear-reactor-in-september/ https://newsforenergy.com/nuclear/china-to-activate-worlds-f...
cbmuser 5y ago
China is currently building 13 reactors at the same time. More than any other country. > https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/UnderConstructionReactorsByCountry.aspx https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/UnderConstruction...

bko 5y ago

Read the second part of my comment. 90% of Chinese CO2 emissions are not trade based.

nemetroid 5y ago
That doesn’t make the ”CO2 outsourcing” claim untrue. For the 1990-2008 period, the paper[1] cited as the source for the graph in question notes: > Collectively, the net CO2 emission reduction of ∼2% (0.3 Gt CO2) in Annex B countries from 1990 to 2008 is much smaller than the additional net emission transfer of 1.2 Gt CO2 from non-Annex B to Annex B countries (equivalent to subtracting the net emission transfers in 2008 from 1990 in Fig. 2). The situation may have improved since then[2], but already in 2008, China’s consumption share of its own emissions was 80%. This figure in itself neither proves or disproves whether developed nations have outsourced their emissions. 1: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/21/8903.full.pdf https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/21/8903.full.pdf 2: Our World in Data cites ”Global Carbon Budget” for newer figures, but it’s raw data, and I’m currently not able to process it myself.
agent327 5y ago
I just straight-out don't believe that. Maybe this is by some incredibly narrow definition of CO2 production, whereby if the produce of a factory is first shipped to a harbor by a Chinese company before leaving China, it counts as 'internal'?
- bumby 5y ago
  This study is a bit old and I’m ignoring their “technology based” method because I don’t think the climate cares if a country would have emitted less if they had equivalent tech[*] , but it shows Chinas consumption based emissions is about 84% of its production based emissions. I.e., 84% of the emissions generated in China were for products/services consumed in China. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118307536 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111... To your point, though, the article corroborates the emissions export claim. (The US is shown as a next exporter in emissions, with consumption based emissions ~13% higher than production emissions). Both points can be simultaneously true. [*]for the sake of this discussion, at least. I can understand the relevance for creating policy though
whimsicalism 5y ago
China has 1.4 billion people. You would expect them to have about ~20% share of emissions in a perfectly fair world, instead they have 28%. Since 1751, they have emitted 12.5% of all emissions while having an even larger share of the global population. The US has 315 million people. You would expect them to have 4.5% share of emissions in a fair world. Instead, they have 15%. Since 1751, they have emitted 25% of all emissions. The numbers seem pretty clear to me.

pfdietz 5y ago

Most of the world does not have a shrinking population. The birth rates may be below replacement, but populations are still growing as the age structure shifts. Japan has achieved true negative population growth.

savingsPossible 5y ago
"achieved" I get that this is good considering climate change, but we'll see what other effect it will have in terms of human suffering
- tremon 5y ago
  At least there will be fewer people in Japan suffering from the climate changes over the next century.
- agent327 5y ago
  It isn't all bad. The aging population will have to be supported by fewer people, which is obviously a problem, and one that can really only be solved by asking the elderly to work to a greater age. On the flip side, Japan has incredibly dense cities with tiny houses. As the population drops to half its current level there will also be more space for living decently, with bigger houses, more green spaces, etc. It's not at all impossible that in such a situation, women may choose to have more children again.
oblio 5y ago
Every country in the developed world plus the former Warsaw pact members have negative natural population growth. They're being propped up by immigrants, that's why they're populations are growing. For example France has about 67 million people but the number of natives is estimated to be around 50 million. Which would be about their population in 1971, 50 years ago. Similar story with the UK, Switzerland, the US, etc. In Japan it's just visible because they have negligible immigration plus even lower birth rates.
- pfdietz 5y ago

bhupy 5y ago

This talking point is simply not true: https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1424038327905230850 https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1424038327905230850

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

NoGravitas 5y ago

China is launching thorium-fueled molten-salt reactors starting with a 2-gigawatt prototype in September; they plan on building lots of smaller ones for production. I'm hoping this replaces coal pretty quickly. https://newsforenergy.com/nuclear/china-to-activate-worlds-first-clean-nuclear-reactor-in-september/ https://newsforenergy.com/nuclear/china-to-activate-worlds-f...

cbmuser 5y ago

China is currently building 13 reactors at the same time. More than any other country. > https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/UnderConstructionReactorsByCountry.aspx https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/UnderConstruction...