4 ms·

The world's population was at around 5.3 bn in 1990 and is now approaching 7.7 bn. This ain't a popular opinion on HN, but I think a key factor to getting clima

by baxtr 5y ago

The world's population was at around 5.3 bn in 1990 and is now approaching 7.7 bn. This ain't a popular opinion on HN, but I think a key factor to getting climate change under control (whatever that means), is to reduce the growth and to stabilize the population.

ggm 5y ago
It's stabilising. Look at the curve. Increasing wealth in Africa and Asia correlates strongly to a drop in birthrate. The problem isn't unconstrained population growth, it's the energy budget inherent in the population we have already, as standards of living rise worldwide. 30y and we didn't double. We probably won't hit 10b
- danparsonson 5y ago
  10b would be just over 25% more people - therefore even if we manage to reduce per-capita environmental impact by 25% (which is evidently no mean feat), we'd still just be treading water.
  - danparsonson 5y ago
    Duh, can't do maths - 25% population increase requires 20% impact decrease to stay still. Still seems unlikely to me across a 30 year timeline.
adrianN 5y ago
The best way to do that is probably improving the education of girls in developing countries: https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/health-and-education https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/health-and-education
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- rory 5y ago
  This is likely true to some definition of best (which is not exactly most effective).
  - adrianN 5y ago
    For some definitions of best nuclear war is the best way of reducing the population. I think improving education and empowering women is the (or one of the) ethically most defensible ways of reducing population growth.
    - rory 5y ago
      Yes, it's likely one of the most effective methods that basically no one (in the west) would have a moral objection to. But there is some middle ground between that and nuclear annihilation. Making free, widespread birth control and sterilization available in areas with high population growth is one option that would likely be more immediately effective than education, but less morally objectionable than bombs.
      - adrianN 5y ago
        I believe I remember that free birth control is not as effective as one would like because it's often women who don't want to have so many children, but men who decide whether or not to use birth control. Empowering women helps with that problem.
        rory 5y ago
        > it's often women who don't want to have so many children, but men who decide whether or not to use birth control This is a meme based on a study from one small state in Nigeria, and hasn't been shown to apply more generally across the developing world.
        adrianN 5y ago
        Interesting. Thanks for that information.
occz 5y ago
Growth is already projected to peak at around 10-11 billion, though. The general trend is for countries going towards replacement rate, or even below, as they become wealthier.
- rory 5y ago
  That prediction relies on all regions becoming wealthier, though. Which isn't currently happening. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=ZG https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locat... https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=ZQ https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locat...

by baxtr 5y ago

ggm 5y ago

It's stabilising. Look at the curve. Increasing wealth in Africa and Asia correlates strongly to a drop in birthrate. The problem isn't unconstrained population growth, it's the energy budget inherent in the population we have already, as standards of living rise worldwide. 30y and we didn't double. We probably won't hit 10b

danparsonson 5y ago
10b would be just over 25% more people - therefore even if we manage to reduce per-capita environmental impact by 25% (which is evidently no mean feat), we'd still just be treading water.
- danparsonson 5y ago
  Duh, can't do maths - 25% population increase requires 20% impact decrease to stay still. Still seems unlikely to me across a 30 year timeline.

adrianN 5y ago

The best way to do that is probably improving the education of girls in developing countries: https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/health-and-education https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/health-and-education

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
rory 5y ago
This is likely true to some definition of best (which is not exactly most effective).
- adrianN 5y ago
  For some definitions of best nuclear war is the best way of reducing the population. I think improving education and empowering women is the (or one of the) ethically most defensible ways of reducing population growth.
  - rory 5y ago
    Yes, it's likely one of the most effective methods that basically no one (in the west) would have a moral objection to. But there is some middle ground between that and nuclear annihilation. Making free, widespread birth control and sterilization available in areas with high population growth is one option that would likely be more immediately effective than education, but less morally objectionable than bombs.
    - adrianN 5y ago
      I believe I remember that free birth control is not as effective as one would like because it's often women who don't want to have so many children, but men who decide whether or not to use birth control. Empowering women helps with that problem.
      - rory 5y ago
        > it's often women who don't want to have so many children, but men who decide whether or not to use birth control This is a meme based on a study from one small state in Nigeria, and hasn't been shown to apply more generally across the developing world.
        adrianN 5y ago
        Interesting. Thanks for that information.

occz 5y ago

Growth is already projected to peak at around 10-11 billion, though. The general trend is for countries going towards replacement rate, or even below, as they become wealthier.

rory 5y ago
That prediction relies on all regions becoming wealthier, though. Which isn't currently happening. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=ZG https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locat... https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=ZQ https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locat...