4 ms·

According to this theory the USA should be a failed state then?

by axiosgunnar 5y ago

HenryKissinger 5y ago
The United States has the world's longest running presidential system, and is the only exception to the rule so far.
- axiosgunnar 5y ago
  Interesting, what might be the reason for its success despite being a presidential system?
  - gpt5 5y ago
    The electoral system. It ensures a two party system which makes the government lean center (on both sides) and be very stable.
    - KSteffensen 5y ago
      I used to think the two party system was a major driver in polarization and resulting instability in the USA and UK, but I guess people can refuse to listen to each other in any system (Israel, Italy, Sweden).
  - bluedevil2k 5y ago
    Vast natural resources creating wealth for the entire population. (Before anyone says “there’s lots of poor people in America...they are not even close to poor by world standards). When the economy is almost always booming, jobs are plentiful, things are cheap, there’s no reason to overthrow a government. As the famous quote explains, “it’s the economy stupid”.
    - IdiocyInAction 5y ago
      That also applies to Argentina.
  - noduerme 5y ago
    It has nothing to do with resources. Per person, Argentina had more land and more natural wealth than the US. The reason our presidential system is less prone to upheaval is the Constitution, its separation of powers and its checks and balances which have, historically, provided for a relatively restrained power of the presidency in the US compared to other presidential systems. Also, the US has what are recently referred to as "norms", precedents set early in the Republic and reinforced through hundreds of years of peaceful transitions of power. These hold a great deal of weight, even now. The political independence of the military, its culture of unwillingness to step into politics, and the taboo on the use of the military for policing on American soil, is another key component in American stability vs the rest of the Americas. Whether this holds up for another 5 years is anyone's guess. My family is from Argentina, and having lived there myself I see the US sliding in that direction. One very telling thing is the increasing justification of political violence that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. However, America has been through periods of political violence before and has not degenerated into a dictatorship, although it's come close.
    - the-dude 5y ago
      > the taboo on the use of the military for policing on American soil Instead, the police militarized. Then there is the National Guard(?).
      - noduerme 5y ago
        The National Guard are under state level control, and the police although "militarized" technologically, are nothing remotely resembling the US military - or even the Argentine military. I brought it up because in almost every country in LatAm the military has at one time or another overthrown the elected government. That hasn't happened in the US. That's a significant problem if a national military begins operating as a police force.
        the-dude 5y ago
        I don't necessarily disagree with you, just want to add that as a European who lived in the US around 2000 for a while, it feels like a police state from time to time.
yao420 5y ago
I definitely think we are in the first stages of decline. Had the capital riots gone a little differently I could see a civil war starting that would destroy America.
- gruez 5y ago
  >Had the capital riots gone a little differently I could see a civil war starting that would destroy America. So what, they make it into the senate chambers, kill some politicians for being traitors, and then what? declare a coup and expect everyone to take them seriously?
  - rayiner 5y ago
    And even if they flip the Capitol Police, what do they do when Maryland and Virginia roll their national guards through DC? We’ve survived assassination of the President on multiple occasions. I have no idea what people think the January 6 rioters could have done to meaningfully affect the country. It was a very small populist uprising that was quickly put down. (We’ve dealt with those too—Whiskey Rebellion, etc.)
    - tshaddox 5y ago
      > what do they do when Maryland and Virginia roll their national guards through DC? That’s literally the civil war the commenter was talking about.
    - reducesuffering 5y ago
      Trump declaring martial law and increased powers under the pretense that our legislature would be incapacitated and the resulting shit storm of animosity between Democrats and Republicans. Many of his supporters and closest personal allies were waiting to seize an opportunity for this end.
      - noduerme 5y ago
        Trump would have been happy to do that. He might have even thought it was possible on that day. In the end, he couldn't do it because he didn't have the key support necessary from the military or his own DOJ. Because that would be a step too far. The bureaucracy, even stacked with his own appointees, had no interest in seeing armed conflict. To be cynical, whatever he was offering just wasn't enough to take that bet.

According to this theory the USA should be a failed state then?

HenryKissinger 5y ago

The United States has the world's longest running presidential system, and is the only exception to the rule so far.

axiosgunnar 5y ago
Interesting, what might be the reason for its success despite being a presidential system?
- gpt5 5y ago
  The electoral system. It ensures a two party system which makes the government lean center (on both sides) and be very stable.
  - KSteffensen 5y ago
    I used to think the two party system was a major driver in polarization and resulting instability in the USA and UK, but I guess people can refuse to listen to each other in any system (Israel, Italy, Sweden).
- bluedevil2k 5y ago
  Vast natural resources creating wealth for the entire population. (Before anyone says “there’s lots of poor people in America...they are not even close to poor by world standards). When the economy is almost always booming, jobs are plentiful, things are cheap, there’s no reason to overthrow a government. As the famous quote explains, “it’s the economy stupid”.
  - IdiocyInAction 5y ago
    That also applies to Argentina.
- noduerme 5y ago
  It has nothing to do with resources. Per person, Argentina had more land and more natural wealth than the US. The reason our presidential system is less prone to upheaval is the Constitution, its separation of powers and its checks and balances which have, historically, provided for a relatively restrained power of the presidency in the US compared to other presidential systems. Also, the US has what are recently referred to as "norms", precedents set early in the Republic and reinforced through hundreds of years of peaceful transitions of power. These hold a great deal of weight, even now. The political independence of the military, its culture of unwillingness to step into politics, and the taboo on the use of the military for policing on American soil, is another key component in American stability vs the rest of the Americas. Whether this holds up for another 5 years is anyone's guess. My family is from Argentina, and having lived there myself I see the US sliding in that direction. One very telling thing is the increasing justification of political violence that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. However, America has been through periods of political violence before and has not degenerated into a dictatorship, although it's come close.
  - the-dude 5y ago
    > the taboo on the use of the military for policing on American soil Instead, the police militarized. Then there is the National Guard(?).
    - noduerme 5y ago
      The National Guard are under state level control, and the police although "militarized" technologically, are nothing remotely resembling the US military - or even the Argentine military. I brought it up because in almost every country in LatAm the military has at one time or another overthrown the elected government. That hasn't happened in the US. That's a significant problem if a national military begins operating as a police force.
      - the-dude 5y ago
        I don't necessarily disagree with you, just want to add that as a European who lived in the US around 2000 for a while, it feels like a police state from time to time.

yao420 5y ago

I definitely think we are in the first stages of decline. Had the capital riots gone a little differently I could see a civil war starting that would destroy America.

gruez 5y ago
>Had the capital riots gone a little differently I could see a civil war starting that would destroy America. So what, they make it into the senate chambers, kill some politicians for being traitors, and then what? declare a coup and expect everyone to take them seriously?
- rayiner 5y ago
  And even if they flip the Capitol Police, what do they do when Maryland and Virginia roll their national guards through DC? We’ve survived assassination of the President on multiple occasions. I have no idea what people think the January 6 rioters could have done to meaningfully affect the country. It was a very small populist uprising that was quickly put down. (We’ve dealt with those too—Whiskey Rebellion, etc.)
  - tshaddox 5y ago
    > what do they do when Maryland and Virginia roll their national guards through DC? That’s literally the civil war the commenter was talking about.
  - reducesuffering 5y ago
    Trump declaring martial law and increased powers under the pretense that our legislature would be incapacitated and the resulting shit storm of animosity between Democrats and Republicans. Many of his supporters and closest personal allies were waiting to seize an opportunity for this end.
    - noduerme 5y ago
      Trump would have been happy to do that. He might have even thought it was possible on that day. In the end, he couldn't do it because he didn't have the key support necessary from the military or his own DOJ. Because that would be a step too far. The bureaucracy, even stacked with his own appointees, had no interest in seeing armed conflict. To be cynical, whatever he was offering just wasn't enough to take that bet.