3 ms·

Texas is most likely fucked long-term. You can probably get away with living there another 10-15 years (total guess, some things could happen which could kick o

Texas is most likely fucked long-term. You can probably get away with living there another 10-15 years (total guess, some things could happen which could kick off some positive feedback loops sooner than that), but I wouldn't buy any housing there and maybe start looking further north before everyone else does and housing prices skyrocket.

refurb 5y ago
Makes perfect sense when Arizona is 20F warmer on average than TX during the summer and yet people seem to live there fine.
- JKCalhoun 5y ago
  AZ has been allowing for their climate (with regard to water) since 1974. Texans will have to move fast.
JKCalhoun 5y ago
Fortunately (?) people are dumb and the rush will happen at the last minute.
- cableshaft 5y ago
  I think the northern migration will start at a trickle, slowly start increasing but still slow enough people don't really notice, and then suddenly and without much warning become a flood. Just need to make sure you sneak in before that flood, but if you try to time it just right you'll probably wait too long and be in the same situation as everyone else.
elevenoh 5y ago
Shill me your housing bag, whereabouts?
- cableshaft 5y ago
  I own a home in the Chicago region right now (not the city itself). It'll probably fare better than Texas but if the Earth warms up 2-3 degrees Celsius it's probably not going to be a good idea to stay here either. Much more than that and it probably doesn't matter where I go. I would like to sell it and move further north in the next 5-7 years myself, hopefully, probably either Wisconsin or Michigan, near the Great Lakes. The decision isn't 100% up to me, though, as I'm married. We have been talking about it, though.
  - elevenoh 5y ago
    >It'll probably fare better than Texas but if the Earth warms up 2-3 degrees Celsius it's probably not going to be a good idea to stay here either. Much more than that and it probably doesn't matter where I go. Why is that? Chicago flooding risk?
    - cableshaft 5y ago
      Various things, one of which being Illinois is expected to turn into the equivalent of what Texas weather and temperatures were about 5-10 years ago, by end-of-century according to this link[1], but there are articles that keep saying we're reaching these tipping points much faster than forecasted[2], so I'm guessing by around mid-century is more likely. And I don't particularly enjoy Texas weather, what I've experienced of it. Also I'm asthmatic, and the air quality where I live already has several days a year where it's unwise for me to go outside for too long (and so my dogs don't get their walks :/), and the number of those days are expected to triple by 2050. I can't find that link offhand, but here's one that says that Chicago now has worse air quality than Los Angeles, having stretches of 2 weeks of bad air quality, and that's last year, not in the future[3]. I'm not super concerned about flooding where I live specifically, since I'm in the far suburbs. I do live near enough to a river that it floods some streets in my city that I drive on, but it's already doing that now anyway. Downtown Chicago could see some flooding from the Lake, but it won't be anywhere near as bad as the coasts. I'm actually considering moving to a place that's much closer to Lake Michigan, just up in Wisconsin or Michigan. But also if we blow past our estimates of warming and get to 4 degrees Celsius or higher, then a good chunk of the US is expected to start turning into a desert, and where I live is approximately where the edge of that is expected to be[4]. I imagine the process will take long enough that I'll be dead before it fully happens, but I also would like to secure a decent home further North before the eventual rush so I can still get a place at a cheap-to-decent price. [1]: https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-midwest https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-impacts/climate-im... [2]: https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/world-to-hit-temperature-tipping-point-10-years-faster-than-forecast-20210805-p58g7u https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/world-to-hit-t... [3]: https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-air-quality-weather-unhealthy-covid/6311695/ https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-air-quality-weather-unhealth... [4]: https://youtu.be/ZfFvLJyPf3o https://youtu.be/ZfFvLJyPf3o

refurb 5y ago

Makes perfect sense when Arizona is 20F warmer on average than TX during the summer and yet people seem to live there fine.

JKCalhoun 5y ago
AZ has been allowing for their climate (with regard to water) since 1974. Texans will have to move fast.

JKCalhoun 5y ago

Fortunately (?) people are dumb and the rush will happen at the last minute.

cableshaft 5y ago
I think the northern migration will start at a trickle, slowly start increasing but still slow enough people don't really notice, and then suddenly and without much warning become a flood. Just need to make sure you sneak in before that flood, but if you try to time it just right you'll probably wait too long and be in the same situation as everyone else.

elevenoh 5y ago

Shill me your housing bag, whereabouts?

cableshaft 5y ago
I own a home in the Chicago region right now (not the city itself). It'll probably fare better than Texas but if the Earth warms up 2-3 degrees Celsius it's probably not going to be a good idea to stay here either. Much more than that and it probably doesn't matter where I go. I would like to sell it and move further north in the next 5-7 years myself, hopefully, probably either Wisconsin or Michigan, near the Great Lakes. The decision isn't 100% up to me, though, as I'm married. We have been talking about it, though.
- elevenoh 5y ago
  >It'll probably fare better than Texas but if the Earth warms up 2-3 degrees Celsius it's probably not going to be a good idea to stay here either. Much more than that and it probably doesn't matter where I go. Why is that? Chicago flooding risk?
  - cableshaft 5y ago
    Various things, one of which being Illinois is expected to turn into the equivalent of what Texas weather and temperatures were about 5-10 years ago, by end-of-century according to this link[1], but there are articles that keep saying we're reaching these tipping points much faster than forecasted[2], so I'm guessing by around mid-century is more likely. And I don't particularly enjoy Texas weather, what I've experienced of it. Also I'm asthmatic, and the air quality where I live already has several days a year where it's unwise for me to go outside for too long (and so my dogs don't get their walks :/), and the number of those days are expected to triple by 2050. I can't find that link offhand, but here's one that says that Chicago now has worse air quality than Los Angeles, having stretches of 2 weeks of bad air quality, and that's last year, not in the future[3]. I'm not super concerned about flooding where I live specifically, since I'm in the far suburbs. I do live near enough to a river that it floods some streets in my city that I drive on, but it's already doing that now anyway. Downtown Chicago could see some flooding from the Lake, but it won't be anywhere near as bad as the coasts. I'm actually considering moving to a place that's much closer to Lake Michigan, just up in Wisconsin or Michigan. But also if we blow past our estimates of warming and get to 4 degrees Celsius or higher, then a good chunk of the US is expected to start turning into a desert, and where I live is approximately where the edge of that is expected to be[4]. I imagine the process will take long enough that I'll be dead before it fully happens, but I also would like to secure a decent home further North before the eventual rush so I can still get a place at a cheap-to-decent price. [1]: https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-midwest https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-impacts/climate-im... [2]: https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/world-to-hit-temperature-tipping-point-10-years-faster-than-forecast-20210805-p58g7u https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/world-to-hit-t... [3]: https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-air-quality-weather-unhealthy-covid/6311695/ https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-air-quality-weather-unhealth... [4]: https://youtu.be/ZfFvLJyPf3o https://youtu.be/ZfFvLJyPf3o