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Wait until the author finds out how the batteries are made. EDIT: just to be clear, I am not a "climate change denier"...although always interested to have lot

Wait until the author finds out how the batteries are made. EDIT: just to be clear, I am not a "climate change denier"...although always interested to have lots of random people attempt to diagnose me. I worked in equity research, I have seen mountains of reports on this topic: lithium and cobalt production are terrible for the environment (ignoring issues with forced labour and human cost at mines, most people who mine this stuff won't make it 50), this is why Tesla is acting (onshoring production, attempting to alter their supply chain, focusing on increasing battery life)...but if you buy one today, the effect on the environment is going to be pretty negligible...relative to people taking their PJ every two days, relative to coal-powered electricity, and even relative to ICE cars with good MPG. This has nothing to do with my views on climate change, and everything to do with how electric batteries are produced. And personally (I will take my turn diagnosis), my view is that people buy the car, and then go about judging other people...because people, particularly wealthy people in my experience, like judging other people...climate change is a way for wealthy people to feel less guilty about being wealthy when they drive past a homeless person in a tent. If you are concerned about climate change: there are still coal mines in the US, still coal mines in China, coal consumption isn't going to peak until 2030...it is just madness to suggest what we really need is for poor people to go out and buy a $40k car because wealthy people said so.

feifan 5y ago
You're making a stock-vs-flows comparison: a battery is manufactured ~once for the lifetime of a car and then produces ~zero emissions per marginal mile driven. Combustion engines produce emissions for every mile driven (and require some emissions to produce as well).
- hogFeast 5y ago
  No, I am not. I didn't mention a flow. You seem to be assuming I said something I did not. The battery has a life of ~120k miles, constructing the battery (and often, but not always, the electricity used to charge it) is so polluting that ICE cars will typically pollute less over that same period of usage. That is what I am saying: nothing about stocks or flows. The difference in pollution is, if it exists, very marginal. EDIT: I will add, look at how cobalt is mined...it is a slave commodity from the Congo, no rules, no environmental laws...same for many other constituents of the battery.
  - feifan 5y ago
    > The battery has a life of ~120k miles … This appears to be untrue. High-mileage Teslas are showing about 10% range degradation after ~250kms on the odometer: https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/#jp-carousel-65298 https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep... Notably, this isn't about Tesla specifically — the broader point is that the technology exists for mass-market car batteries to support many hundreds of thousands of miles/kms within a reasonable lifespan of the battery.
    - hogFeast 5y ago
      Tesla warranty for 100-150k (depending on model). There is so much misinformation about Tesla it is unreal (and not really worth arguing about, just crazy stuff like: Teslas will appreciate in value).
      - rootusrootus 5y ago
        Cars are typically warrantied for 3 years (or 6 years for the drivetrain), what does this have to do with expected lifespan?
      - filoleg 5y ago
        > There is so much misinformation about Tesla it is unreal (and not really worth arguing about, just crazy stuff like: Teslas will appreciate in value). How is this not real? This is literally something I can observe myself. I bought a new Model 3 LR AWD in 2019, and when I look for used listings for the same model right now, the exact same models from 2019 with about 22-30k mileage on them cost as much as what I paid for the new one 2 years ago. Sure, you might say it didn't appreciate since it costs just as much. But imo, when a used car with solid mileage 2 years later costs as much as the new one with zero mileage did 2 years ago, I would definitely count it as, at least, "doesn't depreciate in value nearly as much as cars are expected to".
        feifan 5y ago
        To be fair, I think that's more attributable to the secular trend around car prices recently (car prices across the board are up because of chip shortages and buying demand from rental companies) rather than anything specific to Tesla. But, re "there is so much misinformation about Tesla it is unreal" — I agree, but that doesn't mean you can just categorically ignore _all_ information about Tesla.
- AdrianB1 5y ago
  One battery for the lifetime of the car is dramatically reducing the car's life (me looking at my 21 year old car).
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    The average car lifespan, however, is a little over half that, and plausibly within the lifespan expectations of current battery tech.
    - AdrianB1 5y ago
      In Eastern Europe the average car age is 12 to 14 years. Average, not max. Most cars run on the streets around 20 years.
- blacksmith_tb 5y ago
  Both ICE and EV vehicles require a lot of GHG emissions to produce[1][2] - in the case of an ICE car, that works out to about as much as driving it for its working life. For the EV it's more - but then driving it is associated with much less in the way of emissions, that's sort of the point. Either way, getting rid of a working ICE vehicle that's got life left in it is going to mean all the emissions that stem from its manufacture were for naught (though I'd hope it get sold to someone else who will continue to use it, not scrapped). 1: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/20... 2: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/may/11/viral-image/producing-electric-cars-battery-does-not-emit-same/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/may/11/viral-imag...
axiosgunnar 5y ago
Read this if you have downvoted the parent post: The biggest mistake you can make if you believe that climate change is caused by humans and a looming catastrophe is ostracising people like OP who have a healthy dose of scepticism and actually put down data-based arguments. You can disprove the data OP has put out, but simply downvoting him means you are passing up on your last chance to convince the part of the so-called "climate change deniers" that can actually be convinced (which I assume OP is part of). We can only win this if all people pull together, and downvoting a portion of "all people" instead of talking to them and convincing them means we automatically fail.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
bovine3dom 5y ago
The rule of thumb I've seen is that electric cars are about 25-75% better than fossil fuelled ones over their lifetimes, depending on energy mix and taking into account battery construction. So it's hardly nothing - it puts them roughly in the same league as steam trains per passenger-mile.
- sunstone 5y ago
  This may depend strongly on how your electricity is generated. Probably best to assume the electricity is solar generated since, over the life of a new EV, that's likely to be the closest to the mark.
  - bovine3dom 5y ago
    That's what I meant by energy mix : ) Last time I checked France was the best place since they accidentally have a very climate friendly power grid. Then you're left with just the embedded emissions from battery construction and the rest of the car. Edit: this is wrong Another fun fact is that short haul flights have fewer emissions per mile than electric vehicles for many current energy mixes. Edit: wrongness ends (I hope) It's hard to beat mass transportation no matter what you stick in the engine - it's just physics that power requirements scale mostly with cross sectional area, so it's more efficient to increase length and volume. Edit: I'd remembered a per km figure and a per mile figure and forgot that the units were different. In reality, fossil fuel cars are about 35% better than short haul flights, so electric cars emit about 1/3 as much as short haul flights.
    - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
      Comparing with flights is difficult because it's going to vary wildly according to how many people are in the car.
      - bovine3dom 5y ago
        I don't have any hard data but I assume most car trips only have one necessary passenger. ("Necessary" being aimed at people doing the school run, where the parents wouldn't need to be there if the children got collective transport instead).

feifan 5y ago

You're making a stock-vs-flows comparison: a battery is manufactured ~once for the lifetime of a car and then produces ~zero emissions per marginal mile driven. Combustion engines produce emissions for every mile driven (and require some emissions to produce as well).

hogFeast 5y ago
No, I am not. I didn't mention a flow. You seem to be assuming I said something I did not. The battery has a life of ~120k miles, constructing the battery (and often, but not always, the electricity used to charge it) is so polluting that ICE cars will typically pollute less over that same period of usage. That is what I am saying: nothing about stocks or flows. The difference in pollution is, if it exists, very marginal. EDIT: I will add, look at how cobalt is mined...it is a slave commodity from the Congo, no rules, no environmental laws...same for many other constituents of the battery.
- feifan 5y ago
  > The battery has a life of ~120k miles … This appears to be untrue. High-mileage Teslas are showing about 10% range degradation after ~250kms on the odometer: https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/#jp-carousel-65298 https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep... Notably, this isn't about Tesla specifically — the broader point is that the technology exists for mass-market car batteries to support many hundreds of thousands of miles/kms within a reasonable lifespan of the battery.
  - hogFeast 5y ago
    Tesla warranty for 100-150k (depending on model). There is so much misinformation about Tesla it is unreal (and not really worth arguing about, just crazy stuff like: Teslas will appreciate in value).
    - rootusrootus 5y ago
      Cars are typically warrantied for 3 years (or 6 years for the drivetrain), what does this have to do with expected lifespan?
    - filoleg 5y ago
      > There is so much misinformation about Tesla it is unreal (and not really worth arguing about, just crazy stuff like: Teslas will appreciate in value). How is this not real? This is literally something I can observe myself. I bought a new Model 3 LR AWD in 2019, and when I look for used listings for the same model right now, the exact same models from 2019 with about 22-30k mileage on them cost as much as what I paid for the new one 2 years ago. Sure, you might say it didn't appreciate since it costs just as much. But imo, when a used car with solid mileage 2 years later costs as much as the new one with zero mileage did 2 years ago, I would definitely count it as, at least, "doesn't depreciate in value nearly as much as cars are expected to".
      - feifan 5y ago
        To be fair, I think that's more attributable to the secular trend around car prices recently (car prices across the board are up because of chip shortages and buying demand from rental companies) rather than anything specific to Tesla. But, re "there is so much misinformation about Tesla it is unreal" — I agree, but that doesn't mean you can just categorically ignore _all_ information about Tesla.
AdrianB1 5y ago
One battery for the lifetime of the car is dramatically reducing the car's life (me looking at my 21 year old car).
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  The average car lifespan, however, is a little over half that, and plausibly within the lifespan expectations of current battery tech.
  - AdrianB1 5y ago
    In Eastern Europe the average car age is 12 to 14 years. Average, not max. Most cars run on the streets around 20 years.
blacksmith_tb 5y ago
Both ICE and EV vehicles require a lot of GHG emissions to produce[1][2] - in the case of an ICE car, that works out to about as much as driving it for its working life. For the EV it's more - but then driving it is associated with much less in the way of emissions, that's sort of the point. Either way, getting rid of a working ICE vehicle that's got life left in it is going to mean all the emissions that stem from its manufacture were for naught (though I'd hope it get sold to someone else who will continue to use it, not scrapped). 1: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/20... 2: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/may/11/viral-image/producing-electric-cars-battery-does-not-emit-same/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/may/11/viral-imag...

axiosgunnar 5y ago

Read this if you have downvoted the parent post: The biggest mistake you can make if you believe that climate change is caused by humans and a looming catastrophe is ostracising people like OP who have a healthy dose of scepticism and actually put down data-based arguments. You can disprove the data OP has put out, but simply downvoting him means you are passing up on your last chance to convince the part of the so-called "climate change deniers" that can actually be convinced (which I assume OP is part of). We can only win this if all people pull together, and downvoting a portion of "all people" instead of talking to them and convincing them means we automatically fail.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

bovine3dom 5y ago

The rule of thumb I've seen is that electric cars are about 25-75% better than fossil fuelled ones over their lifetimes, depending on energy mix and taking into account battery construction. So it's hardly nothing - it puts them roughly in the same league as steam trains per passenger-mile.

sunstone 5y ago
This may depend strongly on how your electricity is generated. Probably best to assume the electricity is solar generated since, over the life of a new EV, that's likely to be the closest to the mark.
- bovine3dom 5y ago
  That's what I meant by energy mix : ) Last time I checked France was the best place since they accidentally have a very climate friendly power grid. Then you're left with just the embedded emissions from battery construction and the rest of the car. Edit: this is wrong Another fun fact is that short haul flights have fewer emissions per mile than electric vehicles for many current energy mixes. Edit: wrongness ends (I hope) It's hard to beat mass transportation no matter what you stick in the engine - it's just physics that power requirements scale mostly with cross sectional area, so it's more efficient to increase length and volume. Edit: I'd remembered a per km figure and a per mile figure and forgot that the units were different. In reality, fossil fuel cars are about 35% better than short haul flights, so electric cars emit about 1/3 as much as short haul flights.
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    Comparing with flights is difficult because it's going to vary wildly according to how many people are in the car.
    - bovine3dom 5y ago
      I don't have any hard data but I assume most car trips only have one necessary passenger. ("Necessary" being aimed at people doing the school run, where the parents wouldn't need to be there if the children got collective transport instead).