4 ms·

I used to be there on adaptability too, and thinking that (on a historical or geological timescale) this is just a bad spot we're going though before we get to

by toss1 5y ago

I used to be there on adaptability too, and thinking that (on a historical or geological timescale) this is just a bad spot we're going though before we get to more sustainable technologies. And we WILL get to more sustainable technologies because we must, by the laws of physics - that which cannot be sustained, will not be sustained. My much more open questions now are whether we will get there in time. Humans really suck at understanding systems, and responding in appropriate timescales - especially when the effects involve exponential growth/decay or tipping-point phenomena. Add to that entrenched commercial and political interests who actively poison the well, and we could be doomed. As a small example, just look at what the Republicans did over COVID - literally spoke out against scientifically based vaccines and countermeasures as a political ploy to make the other side fail - even though the risk, and now the fact, is that it will literally kill thousands of their own constituents, and even with record hospitalizations and deaths, the R FL gov is threatening school funding for any school that requires masks. Scale this up to decades of climate disinformation and anti-progress lobbying... Even Toyota is lobbying to slow progress because they bet on the wrong technology. So many links in the ecological chain are being broken that it is looking ever more likely that several tipping points will be reached before we reach sustainable economies. Once a tipping point is reached, no amount of sustainability will reverse it -- we'd have to actively repair all the damage more rapidly than it can spread. Think permafrost melting and releasing gigatons of methane into the atmosphere ~22X more powerful a greenhouse gas vs CO2. It's already happening. I'm not sure, but I'm no longer as optimistic as I was.

chiefalchemist 5y ago
> Humans really suck at understanding systems, and responding in appropriate timescales - especially when the effects involve exponential growth/decay or tipping-point phenomena. We're capable of understanding. What we continue to fail at is priorities, as well as focus. That is, it's difficult to imagine the future and how you as an individual can make an impact when the systems are designed to keep you on The Distraction Diet. Whether that's Keeping up with The Kardashians or some other form of random low-relevance events presented as news.
- toss1 5y ago
  Sure, the top few percent of the intelligence scale get systems just fine. The average college educated person finds complex systems thinking, well, complex. Huge swathes of the electorate find it so confusing that they are easily fooled by BS arguments, disinformation and lies, and vote emphatically directly against their own self interest. Id say that once it gets down to a level of intelligence where the person can tolerate the existence of the distraction diet (well-said!), they are below the level of systems thinking. As Einstein said: "Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is why so few people do it.".

by toss1 5y ago

chiefalchemist 5y ago

> Humans really suck at understanding systems, and responding in appropriate timescales - especially when the effects involve exponential growth/decay or tipping-point phenomena. We're capable of understanding. What we continue to fail at is priorities, as well as focus. That is, it's difficult to imagine the future and how you as an individual can make an impact when the systems are designed to keep you on The Distraction Diet. Whether that's Keeping up with The Kardashians or some other form of random low-relevance events presented as news.

toss1 5y ago
Sure, the top few percent of the intelligence scale get systems just fine. The average college educated person finds complex systems thinking, well, complex. Huge swathes of the electorate find it so confusing that they are easily fooled by BS arguments, disinformation and lies, and vote emphatically directly against their own self interest. Id say that once it gets down to a level of intelligence where the person can tolerate the existence of the distraction diet (well-said!), they are below the level of systems thinking. As Einstein said: "Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is why so few people do it.".